Transcript
Raw Materials and (food) security: a need for
information and analysis (intelligence) ?
The Hague, January 2015 Krijn J. Poppe
with thanks to Thom Achterbosch and Koen Boone
Wageningen UR - For the quality of life
Plant Sciences Group
Animal Sciences Group
Agro-technology and Food Sciences Group
Environ-mental
Sciences Group
Social Sciences Group
Wageningen University Department of Social Sciences
Research Institutes (DLO) LEI
Experimental Research and consultancy CDI
National States
Many actors
Coope-
rative
Non
coope-
rative
Multipolair • Power blocks
• Economic and politcal
competition
• Protectionism
Fragmentation •Stagnating globalisation
•Insecure society
•Identity first
Multilateral • Strong west and upcoming BRICs
• Global governance reformed
• Globalisation continues
Network • Non-polair world order
• Global market economy and civil
society
• Unpredictable
Four scenarios on Scarcity and Transition
3 © De Ruijter Strategie
Food • Every block (EU. VS, China etc.) handles
scarcity differently
• Management of transitions
• No food scarcity in Europe, water scarcity
in Southern Europe only
• No real change in food system in Europe,
but crises management : active control
policy like food stocks, water buffers for
periods of disruption and drought
• Water transport in Europe from North to
South (depending on costs and benefits)
• European policies are needed, steering
with Common Agricultural Policy – the
return of Mansholt to increase production
to self sufficiency levels
• Consumption of meat will be discouraged
Lessons from political science
European thinking is based on multilateralism with global governance systems to facilitate trade, access to resources and spread western values (soft power).
“Emerging markets view access to raw materials as an object of power politics. Europe sees it as trade policy”
“Europe and Japan are in a transition from nation state to market state: in response to globalisation they make the citizen responsible for prosperity (by privatizing)”
“Geo-economics becomes more important as emerging markets see that their prosperity is linked to unhindered access to scarce resources”.
“Mechanisms for conflict resolution should be taken seriously” >> should we develop something on food in The Hague ??
Quotes: Rob de Wijk – Machtspolitiek, 2014
Export Dutch agricultural / food products
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Neigh-bours: 56 %
EU: 80% € 62,4 mld
Extra-EU: 20% € 16,1 mld
12,5% NL exports outside EU are inputs:
support local production to reduce tension
Export seeds: € 1,1 billion
intra EU extra EU
Export means of production (machinery etc.): € 3,1 bln.
intra EU extra EU
Glasshouses built outside the EU from Dutch origin
80 %
8
50
%
50
%
55
%
45
Imports
Phosphate (and potassium)
● Dependent on a few sources, mainly Morocco
Protein-rich animal feed (soy beans)
● EU uncompetitive in cost price (but home-grown would not be not a big effect on consumer price ?)
● Meat consumption slows down – a good thing
● In supply disruption the stock is a big buffer
Tropical products, including palm oil and fats
Fish: EU aquaculture is not competitive compared to Asia
Rare metals etc for machinery and ICT: who knows?
If needed, NL could feed itself (autarky), EU too ?
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Where to go from here
Monitoring
● Agriculture and Food have good world trade data (less true for rare metals etc.)
● Life cycle analysis and other methodologies of the Sustainability Consortium could be used for monitoring, finding alternatives, promote recirculation
Cooperation and reciprocity in trade
● Support with know how, but keep the lead (with ICT?)
Develop a conflict resolution mechanism in the city of justice - The Hague
11
The Sustainability Consortium
SOURCE: TSC member interviews
• Providing multi-stakeholder input
to ensure industry alignment
• Identifying issues beyond LCAs
• Committing to scientific rigor
• Early access to a vast multi-
stakeholder network
• Collaboration on innovative
sustainability solutions and
consumer engagement
Member testimonials
“By looking at sustainability as a
business opportunity, we are
innovating products now that we
wouldn’t have been otherwise”
“TSC is bringing stakeholders
together in a collaborative fashion
to develop sustainability solutions
for common themes across
product sustainability”
“TSC provides common language
and a uniform approach to
measure sustainability across the
supply chain”
Products
Approach
Network
• Defining clear standards for
environmental and social metrics
• Creating implementable tools
• Reducing cost and complexity of
reporting
Reciprocity as a principle in risk mitigation
Match normative with strategic foreign policy in agrofood
Beyond largest supply at lowest cost (anticipate risk)
Cooperative solutions, mutual long term benefits
Implications
● Sustain NL knowledge & innovation base
● Explore new sourcing opportunities
● Multilateral efforts yet also strategic partnerships
● Dialogue with the agro-food sector on supply risk
A central role for ICT as a tool in a
cooperative solution and reciprocity ?
App store
Services
sensors actuators data sources (‘Internet of Things’)
Local Information systems
Spraying Advisory Services
Meteorological Service
State and Policy Information Service
Consumer Food safety service
E-agriculturist Service for spraying potatoes
Machine Breakdown Service
User’s devices
Other sources
Cloud Information
systems
In conclusion
Food exports are diverse, some big import streams
Monitoring
● Agriculture and Food have good world trade data (less true for rare metals etc.)
● Life cycle analysis and other methodologies of the Sustainability Consortium could be used for monitoring, finding alternatives, promote recirculation
Cooperation and reciprocity in trade
● Support with know how, but keep the lead (ICT?)
Develop a conflict resolution mechanism in the city of justice - The Hague
14
Thanks for your
attention
krijn.poppe@wur.nl
www.lei.wur.nl
Slides available
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