Transcript
PotashCorp.com
Q1 2015 Conference Call
April 30, 2015
Forward-looking Statements
Slide #2
Slide#3
Performance
First-Quarter 2015 Highlights
• Earnings of $0.44 per share1; above the $0.40 per share in 2014
• Potash sales volumes of 2.3 million tonnes
• Cash provided by operating activities of $521 million
• Agreement to acquire 9.5 percent stake in Fertilizantes Heringer S.A. (Heringer)
• Issued $500 million in 10-year notes at 3.00 percent
• Expect global potash shipments to reach high-end of 58-60 million tonne range
Source: PotashCorp
Slide #4
Stronger Potash Performance
Quarterly Gross Margin Comparison
$565
$667+$128 -$58
+$32
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Q12014
Potash Nitrogen Phosphate Q12015
Gross Margin - US$ Millions
Source: PotashCorp
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China India Other Asia LatinAmerica
2012 2013 2014 2015F*
Growth Trend Encouraging; Demand Expected to Remain at Historically High Levels
Offshore Potash Market Outlook
Source: PotashCorp
Slide #6
HighlightsPotash Shipments (million tonnes)
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North America Offshore Imports
2012 2013 2014 2015F*
Shipments Expected to Trail Prior Year; Significant Offshore Imports
North American Potash Market Outlook
Source: PotashCorp
Slide #7
HighlightsPotash Shipments (million tonnes)
Slide#8
Strategy and Outlook
Strategic Highlights
Source: PotashCorp
Potash
Nitrogen
Phosphate
Investments
& Capital
Allocation
Strategy
Slide #9
2015 Guidance*
Second Quarter
• Earnings per share: $0.45-$0.55
Full Year
• Earnings per share: $1.75-$2.05; primary changes include:
Changes to Saskatchewan potash taxes: ~$0.07
Nitrogen (lower volumes and prices): ~$0.04
Potash (shift in expected sales mix by market): ~$0.03
Phosphate (lower volumes): ~$0.03
• Potash gross margin: $1.5-$1.8B
• Potash sales volumes: 9.2-9.7 million tonnes
• Nitrogen and phosphate gross margin: $1.0-$1.2B
Source: PotashCorp
Slide #10
2015 Guidance*
Full Year
• Capital expenditures**: ~$1.2B
• Annual effective tax rate: 26-28 percent
• Provincial mining and other taxes: 20-22 percent of total potash gross margin
• Income from offshore investments***: $180-$200M
• Selling and administrative expenses: $230-$245M
• Finance costs: $200-$210M
• FX Assumption: $1.24 CDN$ / US$
• EPS sensitivity to FX: US$ strengthens vs. CDN$ by $0.02 = +$0.01 to EPS
Source: PotashCorp
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2008 2010 2012 2014 2016E 2018E
Source: PotashCorp
PotashCorp Capital Spending*
Declining CAPEX Enhancing Ability to Return Capital to Shareholders
PotashCorp’s Opportunity
US$ Billions
Current Estimate**
Slide #12
4.6%
3.0%
2.5%
2.1%
0.0%0%
1%
2%
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5%
POT AGU MOS CF IPI
Percent Yield***
Dividend Yield
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Thank you
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