Population

PopulationGeography

NGHS APHG

Population Geography

Elements of Population Geography (focuses on spatial aspects of demography)

Demography (study of population) Population Distribution Population Density Arithmetic Population Density Physiologic Density Rate of Natural Increase (the excess of births of deaths –

omitting migration) Growth Rate (Natural increase + Net Migration)

Population Terms

Demography - the study of population characteristics

Overpopulation- when the available resources cannot

support the number of people

Density - How many? The total number of people

Demography The study of human populations, particularly

the size, distribution, and characteristics of members of population groups.

Distribution and Density

Population Growth

0 AD 250 Million People 1803 AD 1 Billion People 1903 AD 1.6 Billion People 1950 AD 3.0 Billion People 1987 AD 5.0 Billion People 1998 AD 6.0 Billion People

World 6,602,224,175 TODAY

China 1,321,851,888 India 1,129,866,154 United States 301,139,947 Indonesia 234,693,997 Brazil 190,010,647 Pakistan 164,741,924 Bangladesh 150,448,339 Russia 141,377,752 Nigeria 138,898,084 Japan 127,690,000

The World and the Top 10

Dot Map of World Population –On this map, one dot represents 100,000 people

Population Distribution – Descriptions of locations on the Earth’s surface where individuals or groups (depending on the scale) live.

Countries are displayed by size of population rather than land area. Countries named have at least 50 million people.

World Population Clusters

Two-thirds of the world’s population are concentrated in four regions: 1. East Asia (East China, Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan)

- ¼ of world population here2. South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh)

- bound by the Himalayas and a desert in Pakistan3. Europe

- population is concentrated in cities4. North America

- megalopolis

Ecumene

The portion of the Earth’s surface occupied by permanent human settlement

Increased over time ¾ of world population lives on only 5% of

the Earth’s surface

Population Distribution

Densely populated regions– Low lands– Fertile soil– Temperate climate

Sparsely Populated Regions– dry lands– wet lands– high lands– cold lands

Density

Arithmetic DensityPhysiological DensityAgricultural Density

Arithmetic Density: The total number of people divided by the total land area.

Arithmetic Density: The total number of people / area of land measured in km² or mi²

Crude density, also called arithmetic density, is the total number of people divided by the total land area.

Physiological Density: The number of people per unit of area of arable land, which is land

suitable for agriculture.

Physiological Density: The number of people per unit of area of arable land, which is land

suitable for agriculture.

Physiologic Population Density

Egypt’s arable lands are along the Nile River Valley.

Moving away from the river a few blocks, the land becomes sandy and wind-sculpted.

•Arithmetic Density= 192/ sq.mi.

•Physiological Density= 6,682 /sq. mi.

Egypt’s population distribution is closely linked to the proximity of water. In the north, the population clusters along the Mediterranean and in the interior, along the banks of the

Nile River. (2004)

Agricultural Density: The number of farmers to the total amount of land suitable for agriculture.

Population Characteristics

World Population GrowthBirth rate (b) − death rate (d) = rate of natural increase (r)

Population Characteristics

Crude Birth Rate (CBR) Crude Death Rate (CDR) Natural Increase Rate (NIR) Doubling Time Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)

Population Characteristics

Crude Birth Rate : The total number of live births in a year for every 1,000 people alive in the society. – Crude Birth Rate = Births in a year

1000 people

Crude Birth Rate : The total number of live births in a year for every 1,000 people alive in the society.

Population Characteristics

Crude Death Rate : The total number of deaths in a year for every 1,000 people alive in the society. – Crude Death Rate = Deaths in a year

1000 people

Crude Death Rate : The total number of deaths in a year for every 1,000 people alive in the society.

Population Characteristics

Natural Increase: The percentage growth of a population in a year, computed as the crude birth rate minus the crude death rate.– not including migration– usually measured in percentages (out of

100)– Rate of Natural Increase = Natural Increase Population

x 100

Natural Increase: The percentage growth of a population in a year, computed as the crude birth rate minus the crude death rate.

Natural Increase

USA Population RNI– 0.6%

Nepal's Population RNI– 2.4%

What do these numbers imply?

Population Characteristics

Doubling Time: The number of years needed to double a

population, assuming a constant rate of natural increase.

Population Characteristics

Total Fertility Rate: The average number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years.

Infant Mortality Rate: annual number of deaths of infants under age 1, compared to total live births– IMR = Infant(less than 1 year) deaths 1000 live births

Infant Mortality Rate: - the number of deaths of children under the age of 1, per thousand of the general population.

Population Characteristics Life Expectancy : The average number of

years an individual can be expected to live, given current social, economic, and medical conditions.

Life Expectancy at Birth in 2003Men Women

US 74 80 Japan 78 85 Nepal 59 58 Kenya 46 46 France 76 83

Life Expectancy : The average number of years an individual can be expected to live, given current social, economic, and medical conditions.

A Population Bomb? Thomas Malthus (1766-1834, England)

– --Felt population growing exponentially and resources growing linearly

– --Believed people needed to practice

– ”moral restraint” to lower CBR or

– disaster to increase CDR in order to

– solve population problem

Neo-Malthusians

Two recent issues that invigorate Malthus thought:– 1. many countries experiencing population growth

due to transfer of medical technology – 2. new population “stripping” world of resources

Ehrlich (1960s) – warned of a population bomb in 1970s and 1980s

because the world’s population was outpacing food production.

– No bomb, no starving! Could there still be something learned from Ehhrlich’s thoughts?

Critics of Malthus

Resources are not fixed: possibilism and technology

Lack o food have to do with distribution of wealth rather than insufficient food

Population growth can stimulate economic growth– More people=more consumers, more creativity

Demographic Transition

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

Demographic Transition - the change in population characteristics of a country to reflect medical technology or economic and social development.

Demographic Transition - Stage 1 High Birth Rate

– Agricultural society High Death Rate

– Epidemics and plagues– Famine– War

Low Natural Increase Rate Stationary population growth

Today, no country in the world is in Stage 1.

Demographic Transition - Stage 1

Demographic Transition - Stage 2

High Birth Rate Declining Death Rate

– Industrial Revolution: agricultural improvements medical advancements

High Natural Increase Rate High expanding population growth

Europe and North America entered Stage 2 in the 1800s

Africa, Asia and Latin America entered into Stage 2 in the early to mid 1900s– European colonization brought medical

advancementsCurrent Examples: Afghanistan, Many

Sub-Saharan African countries

Demographic Transition - Stage 2

Demographic Transition - Stage 3

Declining Birth Rate– Urbanization– Wealth– Education– Contraceptives

Low Death Rate Low Natural Increase Rate Slow expanding population growth

Europe and North America entered Stage 3 in first half of 1900s

Many countries in Latin America and Asia entered Stage 3 in the second half of the 1900s

Current Examples: Mexico, Panama, South Africa

Demographic Transition - Stage 3

Demographic Transition - Stage 4 Low Birth Rate

– Low TFR– Women highly involved in education and workforce

Low Death Rate Low to no Natural Increase Rate Stationary Population Growth

This stage reflects a highly industrialized, educated society.

Current Examples:– Many European countries (Italy, France)– United States– Japan

Demographic Transition - Stage 4

Stage 5?

Demographic Transition Model

Draw it!– Stages: 1-5 and growth– CBR– CDR– NIR– Total Population

Population Pyramids

Dependency Ratio

The number of people who are too young or too old to work, compared to the number of people in their productive years

Dependency Ratio

0-14 = Dependents 15-64 = Workers 64+ = Dependents DR = Number of Dependents (0-15 and 65+)

Number of Working-age (16-64)X 100

Population under the age of 15 - usually shown as a percentage of the total population of a country - dependency age is 0-15

Sex Ratio

Sex Ratio: number of males per hundred females

In general more males are born than females

Males have higher death rates Examples:

– Europe and North America = 95:100 – Rest of World = 102:100

Sex Ratio – Developing Countries

Have large % of young people –where males generally outnumber females

Lower % of older people – where females are typically more numerous

High immigration = more males

Population Pyramids

A country’s stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure

Also called

Age-Sex Pyramids

Population Pyramid

Population composition on graph: – Males = left side of the vertical axis – Females = right side of the vertical axis – Age = order sequentially with youngest

at the bottom and oldest at the top

(usually by five-year cohorts)

Rapid Growth A country in stage 2 of the Demographic

Transition Model Large number of young people and a

smaller older population

Slow Growth A country in stage 4 of the Demographic

Transition Model Large number of “older people” Smaller % of young people

No Growth

End of stage 4, entering Stage 5 Large number of “older people” Very small % of young people

Developing Relatively Developed Developed (poor) (rich)

What stage goes with each pyramid?

National Scale

Population Control

Epidemiological Transition Model

Stage 1– Epidemics: Infectious and parasitic diseases,

famine– Ex: Black Plague

Stage 2– Receding Pandemics– Ex: Cholera

Epidemiological Transition Model

Stage 3– Degenerative and human-created disease– Ex: Cardiovascular disease and Cancer

Stage 4– Delayed degenerative diseases– Ex: Alzheimer's, Diabetes

Stage 5?– Reemerging infectious and parasitic disease– Ex: Malaria, TB, SARS, AIDS

AIDS/HIV+ 2001world distribution:

– 28 million in Sub-Saharan Africa– 7 million in Asia (India, China, SE Asia)– 2 million in Latin America (Caribbean-Haiti)

Sub-Saharan Africa– 70% of HIV cases– Zimbabwe, Botswana, Zambia, South Africa– Increase death rates– Declining life expectancy

Expansive Population Policies

Communist Societies– Soviet Union– China – Mao Zedong

European countries: NOW– Tax incentives– Sweden

Cash payments, tax incentives, job leave, work hour flexibility lasting up to 8 years after birth

Short baby boom, but led to issues

Eugenic Population Policies

Favoring one racial or cultural sector of the population over the others– Tax discrimination, allocation of resources,

favoritism Examples

– Nazi Germany– Japan?– USA?

Restrictive Population Policies Reducing the rate of natural increase

through a range of means– China: “One-child” policy: Income bonuses, Better

health care benefits, Better retirement pensions, Priority in housing

Solutions to Population Growth Empowerment of Women

– $ for contraception & education– Changing cultural norms to value girls

Diffusion of Birth Control Policies– Educating men

w/ responsibility

for birth control– Sterilization

Solutions to Population Growth

Addressing traditional religious values that may encourage gender preference and large families

Redistribution of wealth - improve standard of living for poor so that children aren’t as necessary– Improving farming techniques in poor

areas– Starvation, Malnourishment

Solutions to Population Growth

Medical technology –

costs of maintaining

vulnerable populations

(old & young)

Addressing government policies to deal with their growing populations

Something to think about…

Is population control funded by MDCs ethical in LDCs?– Population control v. culture– Birth control? – Sterilization?– Abortion?– Sex determination?– Incentives: Money, food, clothing?

Is population control funded by MDCs needed to keep mass amounts of people in the LDCs out of poverty?