Political Economy of Climate Change Reforms

Political Economy of Climate Change ReformsThe Case of Pakistan

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Vaqar AhmedSustainable Development Policy Institute

SANDEE Workshop in Environmental Economics & Policy, 17th September 2012Islamabad, Pakistan

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Macro level analysis

Sectoral level

analysis

Problem-driven

analysis

Levels of Political Economy Analysis

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Administrative reform

Service delivery Peace building Economic

growth

Key Issues under Political Economy Analysis

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Structural Features

InstitutionsAgents

Drivers in Political Economy Framework

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Citizens

Traditional Authoritie

s

State Institution

s

NGOs

Associations for Social

Movement

Businesses

Development

Partners

Political parties

Stakeholder Mapping in Political Economy Framework

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How much Climate Change is Respected in Budget?Public Sector Development Program 2012-13

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Federal and Provincial Development Programs (2011-12)

Rs. Million

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• Punjab – Forest: Rs. 470 million– Wildlife: Rs. 395 million– Fisheries: Rs. 370 million

• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa– Forest: Rs. 434 million– Wildlife: Rs. 183 million– Fisheries: Rs. Rs. 400 million

• Similar classification for other provinces

Provincial Priorities

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• Strengthening institutional set-up to tackle climate change impact– Planned establishment of Environment Management Unit in Sindh

(important after 18th Amendment)

• Capacity building of the environment related institutions• Traditional hazards arising from poor water supply & sanitation• Environmental management of polluted rivers and water

bodies

– Disconnect between budget and rhetoric

Provincial Outlook 2012-13

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More Rhetoric….

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Rhetoric Continues…….

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• Conclusions Constraints Advocacy Demand

– Is your research going to advice same conclusion? – Did you identify binding constraints in implementing environmental

reforms? – Did you follow up your research via advocacy? – Did you manage to form a constituency that demands environmental

reforms?

Gap between Academia and Policy Community

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Before you give policy advice please consider three issues: • Social capital for making a specific intervention• Social accountability (and urban spaces)• Social innovation (and cleaner environment)

How Innovative is our Research Process?

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3 Case Studies

Public expenditure and social

capital

Cities being more

responsive to poor

Finding innovation

processes that reduce

inequalities

Socially-relevant Economic Growth Process

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• Floods in 2010 and 2011• Investment available from local and external sources

– Absorption of adaptation measures difficult (people don’t want to move from their flooded homes)

• In 2010 significant portion of disaster management funds surrendered/diverted

• In 2011 social mobilization teams went first and interventions came latter

• In 2011 pre-flood negotiations with katcha settlers – Absorption improved and timely expenditures observed

Social Capital and Disaster Management

Social Capital more important than human and physical capital

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• South Asian Mayor’s Meeting• We conducted social accountability interventions in

two urban slum areas with lowest enrollment: – Minority Christian community– Migrant community

• Parents-Teachers committees formed over 13 months and parents informed on registering grievances

• Parents ensuring not only child attendance but also content of schooling

• A case for micro-governance interventions

Social Accountability and Cities

Cities have a greater tendency to be pro-poor

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• While formal innovation systems still remain clogged by barriers to entry in market

• It is the informal innovations that are pro-poor and have greater growth potential– Honey bee network Anil Gupta

• Case Study of Garbage Bank (Gul Bahao Project) – Low cost consumer durables– Housing at affordable prices– Infrastructure at lower unit costs

Social Innovation and Environment

Innovations that respond to needs of the poor

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Non-traditional

security threat

Human insecurity

National emergency

Thinking Climate Change - differently

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Thinking Climate Change - differently

Direct impact

Indirect Consequences Slow-onset

Water Food Health Mega-projects

Disasters Bio-fuel Sea level

Short term (2007-2020)

Local conflict over water

Failure to meet MDGs

Failure to meet MDGs

Long history of development-induced displacement from 1950s

Nation states begin to lose credibility due to inability to prevent large disasters

Isolated food – fuel competition & price spikes

Small number of displacements

Medium term (2021-2050)

Increased local & some international conflict over water

Significant displacement due to famine

Interacts with food production problems

Displacement of rural poor due to CDM & large scale dams & other state based mitigation & adaptation projects

Significant political unrest due to failure of DRR & inadequate recovery in many countries

Food-fuel competition increases & biodiversity erosion

Increasing displacement & national/ international tension

Long term (2051-2100)

Major international conflict over water

Major displacement & political upheaval

Major displacement due to epidemics

Major urban upheaval and other political fall out from mega-project displacement

Major upheaval with international implications due to unattended weather catastrophes

Major discontent due to food-fuel competition

Major international tensions due to population displacement

Ben Wisner etal,15April 2007, Climate Change and Human Security

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Message from Human Development Report

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How Environment Challenges Human Development?

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National Consultations on Green Economy – Some Recommendations

• Sustainable Development

– Devising implementation framework for National Sustainable Development Strategy• Focus less on investment aspects and more on governance

– Where to after devolution? • Environmental appraisal of national and sub-national policies, programs

and projects

– Establishing National Fund on Climate Change and Green Development

– Central Bank to incentivize green investments

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National Consultations on Green Economy – Some Recommendations

• Cleaner Energy

– Alternative energy: Revisit hydel power

– Technology for cleaner conventional sources: clean coal, carbon capture and storage, and carbon offset

– Energy Efficiency: adopt policies, financing instruments, and information dissemination to promote energy efficiency in power generation and distribution, transport, buildings, and industry

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National Consultations on Green Economy – Some Recommendations

• Two additional areas

– Sustainable agriculture for food security

– Sustainable urbanization

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Bottom Line in Political Economy Analysis for Climate Change Interventions

• Where is the capacity to comprehend advice?

• Is there enough social capital to make intervention?

• Is it possible to introduce demand-side accountability?

• Will it be least cost intervention?

Thank You

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vaqar@sdpi.orgwww.sdpi.org, www.sdpi.tv