PMP Study Guide Chapter 6: Risk Planning. Chapter 6 Risk Planning Planning for Risks Plan Risk Management Identifying Potential Risk Analyzing Risks Using.

PMP Study Guide

Chapter 6: Risk Planning

Chapter 6 Risk Planning

• Planning for Risks

• Plan Risk Management

• Identifying Potential Risk

• Analyzing Risks Using Qualitative Techniques

• Quantifying Risks

• Developing a Risk Response Plan

Planning for Risks

• Risks are events that pose opportunities or threats to the project

• Risk is uncertainty—the more that’s known about risk, the better

Chapter 6 Risk Planning

• Planning for Risks

• Plan Risk Management

• Identifying Potential Risk

• Analyzing Risks Using Qualitative Techniques

• Quantifying Risks

• Developing a Risk Response Plan

Plan Risk Management

• The Plan Risk Management process determines and documents how to plan for risks

• The Plan Risk Management process establishes an agreed-upon basis for evaluating risk

• Determine and document stakeholder risk tolerance levels

Chapter 6 Risk Planning

• Planning for Risks

• Plan Risk Management

• Identifying Potential Risk

• Analyzing Risks Using Qualitative Techniques

• Quantifying Risks

• Developing a Risk Response Plan

Identifying Potential Risk

• Budgets/funding• Schedules• Scope or

requirements changes

• Project plan• Technical issues• Personnel

issues

• Hardware• Contracts• Political

concerns• Business risk• Legal risk• Environmental

risk

Identifying Potential Risk

• Tools and techniques of the Identify Risk process:– Documentation reviews– Information-gathering techniques– Checklist analysis– Assumptions analysis– Diagramming techniques– SWOT analysis– Expert judgment

Identifying Potential Risk

• Information-gathering techniques include:– Brainstorming– Delphi technique– Nominal Group technique– Interviewing– Root cause identification

• SWOT analysis

Identifying Potential Risk

• Diagramming techniques include:– Cause-and-effect

• Fishbone diagram or Ishikawa diagram

– Flowcharts– Influence diagrams

Identifying Potential Risk

• Risk register is the output of the Identify Risk process.

• Risk register should contain:– List of identified risks– List of potential resources

Chapter 6 Risk Planning

• Planning for Risks

• Risk Management Planning

• Identifying Potential Risk

• Analyzing Risks Using Qualitative Techniques

• Quantifying Risks

• Developing a Risk Response Plan

Analyzing Risks Using Qualitative Techniques

• Risk probability and impact assessment

• Probability and impact matrix

• Risk data quality assessment

• Risk categorization

• Risk urgency assessment

• Expert judgment

Risk Impacts Rating Matrix

5.1

Probability and Impact Matrix

Analyzing Risks Using Qualitative Techniques

• Risk register is updated at the end of the Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis process with:– Risk ranking (or priority) for identified risks– Risks grouped by categories– Causes of risk– List of risks requiring near-term responses– List of risks for additional analysis and

response– Watch list of low-priority risks– Trends in qualitative risk analysis results

Chapter 5 Risk Planning

• Planning for Risks

• Risk Management Planning

• Identifying Potential Risk

• Analyzing Risks Using Qualitative Techniques

• Quantifying Risks

• Developing a Risk Response Plan

Quantifying Risk

• Tools and techniques of the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process include:– Data gathering and representation

techniques• Interviewing• Probability distributions

– Quantitative risk analysis and modeling techniques

– Expert judgment

Quantifying Risk

• Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Techniques– Sensitivity analysis– Expected monetary value analysis– Decision tree analysis– Modeling and simulation

Quantifying RiskSensitivity Analysis

• Tornado diagram

Quantifying RiskDecision Tree Analysis

Chapter 6 Risk Planning

• Planning for Risks

• Risk Management Planning

• Identifying Potential Risk

• Analyzing Risks Using Qualitative Techniques

• Quantifying Risks

• Developing a Risk Response Plan

Developing a Risk Response Plan

Strategies for Negative Risks:

• Avoid• Transfer• Mitigate• Accept

Strategies for Positive Risk:

• Exploit• Share• Enhance

Developing a Risk Response Plan

• Plan Risk Response Outputs– Risk register updates– Risk-related contract decisions– Project management plan updates– Project document updates

Developing a Risk Response Plan

• Risk Register contains:– Prioritized list of risks– Risk ranking– Risk owners and responsibility– Outputs from Perform Qualitative

Analysis– Agreed-upon response strategies– Actions needed to implement

response plans . . .

Developing a Risk Response Plan

• Risk register continued:– Cost and schedule activities

needed to implement risk responses

– Contingency plans– Fallback plans– List of residual and secondary risks– Contingency reserves

Chapter 6 Summary

• Risk management plan• Where potential risks may occur• Tools and techniques to identify risks• Qualitative techniques• Quantitative techniques• Strategies for negative risks• Strategies for positive risks• Risk register contents