Plenary session 1 the tricks and trials of investing in nut production - david williams
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Macadamias and Opals
Opal
Select Harvests Ltd – share price
Source: Capital IQ
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
Select Harvests Ltd – share price
Source: Capital IQ
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
Orchards (acres) Owned & Leased: 2,400 Managed: 11,500
Orchards (acres) Owned & Leased: 3,400 Managed: 35,300
Orchards (acres) Owned & Leased: 12,600 Managed: 4,400
Orchards (acres) Owned & Leased: 2,400 Managed: 18,100
Orchards (acres) Owned & Leased: 2,100
Barley price - $US per metric tonne
Source: Index Mundi
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
$300.00
Au
g-0
2
Jan
-03
Jun
-03
No
v-0
3
Ap
r-0
4
Sep
-04
Feb
-05
Jul-
05
Dec
-05
May
-06
Oct
-06
Mar
-07
Au
g-0
7
Jan
-08
Jun
-08
No
v-0
8
Ap
r-0
9
Sep
-09
Feb
-10
Jul-
10
Dec
-10
May
-11
Oct
-11
Mar
-12
Au
g-1
2
USD
pe
r m
etri
c to
nn
e
Rice price - $US per metric tonne
Source: Index Mundi
$100.00
$200.00
$300.00
$400.00
$500.00
$600.00
$700.00
$800.00
$900.00
$1,000.00
$1,100.00
Au
g-0
2
Jan
-03
Jun
-03
No
v-0
3
Ap
r-0
4
Sep
-04
Feb
-05
Jul-
05
Dec
-05
May
-06
Oct
-06
Mar
-07
Au
g-0
7
Jan
-08
Jun
-08
No
v-0
8
Ap
r-0
9
Sep
-09
Feb
-10
Jul-
10
Dec
-10
May
-11
Oct
-11
Mar
-12
Au
g-1
2
USD
pe
r m
etri
c to
nn
e
Sugar price - $US per metric tonne
Source: Index Mundi
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Au
g-0
2
Jan
-03
Jun
-03
No
v-0
3
Ap
r-0
4
Sep
-04
Feb
-05
Jul-
05
Dec
-05
May
-06
Oct
-06
Mar
-07
Au
g-0
7
Jan
-08
Jun
-08
No
v-0
8
Ap
r-0
9
Sep
-09
Feb
-10
Jul-
10
Dec
-10
May
-11
Oct
-11
Mar
-12
Au
g-1
2
USD
pe
r m
etri
c to
nn
e
Soybeans price - $US per metric tonne
Source: Index Mundi
100
200
300
400
500
600 Aug-0
2
Jan-0
3
Jun-0
3
Nov-0
3
Apr-
04
Sep-0
4
Feb-0
5
Jul-
05
Dec-0
5
May-0
6
Oct-
06
Mar-
07
Aug-0
7
Jan-0
8
Jun-0
8
Nov-0
8
Apr-
09
Sep-0
9
Feb-1
0
Jul-
10
Dec-1
0
May-1
1
Oct-
11
Mar-
12
Aug-1
2
US
D p
er m
etr
ic t
on
ne
Beef price - $US per metric tonne
Source: Index Mundi
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190 A
ug-
02
Jan
-03
Jun
-03
No
v-0
3
Ap
r-0
4
Sep
-04
Feb
-05
Jul-
05
Dec
-05
May
-06
Oct
-06
Mar
-07
Au
g-0
7
Jan
-08
Jun
-08
No
v-0
8
Ap
r-0
9
Sep
-09
Feb
-10
Jul-
10
Dec
-10
May
-11
Oct
-11
Mar
-12
Au
g-1
2
USD
pe
r m
etri
c to
nn
e
Wheat price - $US per metric tonne
Source: Index Mundi
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Au
g-0
2
Jan
-03
Jun
-03
No
v-0
3
Ap
r-0
4
Sep
-04
Feb
-05
Jul-
05
Dec
-05
May
-06
Oct
-06
Mar
-07
Au
g-0
7
Jan
-08
Jun
-08
No
v-0
8
Ap
r-0
9
Sep
-09
Feb
-10
Jul-
10
Dec
-10
May
-11
Oct
-11
Mar
-12
Au
g-1
2
USD
pe
r m
etri
c to
nn
e
Corn price - $US per metric tonne
Source: Index Mundi
20
70
120
170
220
270
320 Aug-0
2
Jan-0
3
Jun-0
3
Nov-0
3
Apr-
04
Sep-0
4
Feb-0
5
Jul-
05
Dec-0
5
May-0
6
Oct-
06
Mar-
07
Aug-0
7
Jan-0
8
Jun-0
8
Nov-0
8
Apr-
09
Sep-0
9
Feb-1
0
Jul-
10
Dec-1
0
May-1
1
Oct-
11
Mar-
12
Aug-1
2
US
D p
er m
etr
ic t
on
ne
Shares of urban household expenditure on food: all
households (%)
Source: World Bank
Expenditure item Ban
glad
esh
Cam
bo
dia
Ind
ia
Ind
on
esi
a
Ke
nya
Pak
ista
n
Thai
lan
d
Uga
nd
a
Vie
tnam
Purchased food 51 53 41 53 39 42 35 37 41
Nonpurchased food 3.9 6.6 0.8 3.2 6.9 2 4.5 6.5 2.6
Total food 55 60 42 56 46 44 40 44 44
Shares of rural household expenditure on food: all
households (%)
Source: World Bank
Expenditure item Ban
glad
esh
Cam
bo
dia
Ind
ia
Ind
on
esi
a
Ke
nya
Pak
ista
n
Thai
lan
d
Uga
nd
a
Vie
tnam
Purchased food 49 52 49 55 35 42 35 27 38
Nonpurchased food 15 20 11 11 25 14 11 29 16
Total food 64 72 60 66 60 56 46 56 54
Select Harvests Ltd – share price
Source: Capital IQ
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
Orchards (acres) Owned & Leased: 2,400 Managed: 11,500
Orchards (acres) Owned & Leased: 3,400 Managed: 35,300
Orchards (acres) Owned & Leased: 12,600 Managed: 4,400
Orchards (acres) Owned & Leased: 2,400 Managed: 18,100
Orchards (acres) Owned & Leased: 2,100
Industry investment is now likely to come from
Sovereign Wealth Funds
Industry investment is now likely to come from
Endowment Funds and Agri Focussed Investors
Industry investment is now likely to come from
Private Equity
Australian plantings
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Pla
nti
ngs
(0
00
s tr
ee
s)
Are
a u
nd
er
pla
nti
ngs
(H
a)
Source: Australian Macadamia Society orchards census
Global macadamia kernel production CAGR 2003-
2012
11%
10%
9%
5%
2%
0% 0% NA NA NA
-3%
4.50%
6.40%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Gro
wth
/ d
ecl
ine
in p
rod
uct
ion
vo
lum
e
Source: International Dried Fruit & Nut Association Statistics Database
Opal
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jan
-04
May
-04
Sep
-04
Jan
-05
May
-05
Sep
-05
Jan
-06
May
-06
Sep
-06
Jan
-07
May
-07
Sep
-07
Jan
-08
May
-08
Sep
-08
Jan
-09
May
-09
Sep
-09
Jan
-10
May
-10
Sep
-10
Jan
-11
May
-11
Sep
-11
Jan
-12
May
-12
Sep
-12
No
rmal
ise
d G
oo
gle
Se
arch
es Almonds
Macadamias
Source: Google Insights
Google searches:
almonds and macadamias 2004 - 2012
Most Almond Google searches are from:
Source: Google Insights
Most Macadamia Google searches are from:
Source: Google Insights
Almonds and macadamia searches – developed
countries (Macadamias in red)
0 20 40 60 80 100
Australia
New Zealand
United States
Canada
Germany
France
Spain
United Kingdom
Italy
Japan
No
rmal
ise
d G
oo
gle
Se
arch
es
Source: Google Insights
Almonds and macadamia searches – emerging
countries (Macadamias in red)
0 10 20 30 40 50
Brazil
Philippines
Malaysia
India
Argentina
Russia
China
No
rmal
ise
d G
oo
gle
Se
arch
es
Source: Google Insights
Macadamias and Opals
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