Outlook for European forest products markets in 2001-2002
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FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Outlook for European forest products markets in 2001-2002
by Ed Pepke
Forest Products Marketing Specialist
UNECE & FAO, Geneva
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Topics of presentation
• Wood market situation in 2000 and 2001
• Forecasts for 2002
• Implications on utilization of roundwood
• UNECE Timber Committee recommendations
• Concluding marketing principle
• Questions
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Sources of information
• UNECE Timber Committee market statement from October 2001
• UNECE & FAO Timber Bulletin “Forest products annual market review, 2000-2001”
• UNECE & FAO TIMBER database
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
UNECE & FAO TIMBER database
• Annual forest products statistics from country correspondents, 1964-2000
• Timber Committee forecasts, 2001-2002
• Production, trade and consumption
• Available on Timber Committee website’s Market Information Service
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Forest products market segments
• Timber Committee forecasts for:SawnwoodPanelsRoundwood
• Status of markets for:Further processed products For example, Engineered Wood Products
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
UN Economic Commission for Europe Region
• Europe (focus of this presentation, 41 countries!)
• North America
• Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
UNECE Timber Committee outlook
• Record levels in 2000
• Weakening markets in 2001
• Improvement forecast initially in 2002
• Uncertainty of 2002 forecasts following the 11 September attacks
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Increasing globalization effects
• Some effects not specific to forest products sector
• Sector-specific:Multi-national buying chains, e.g., DIYGlobal product marketsExport-oriented plantations
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Forest products markets outlook
• Sawnwood
• Panels
• Utilization of roundwood
• Value-added products
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Sawnwood production & consumption – Europe
70,000.0075,000.0080,000.0085,000.0090,000.0095,000.00
100,000.00105,000.00110,000.00115,000.00
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Consumption Production
11000
m3
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Sawnwood consumption – N. America
0
20,00040,000
60,00080,000
100,000
120,000140,000
160,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Softwood Hardwood
1000
m3
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Sawnwood production – CIS
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Production Consumption
1000
m3
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Sawnwood exports – Europe
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Softwood Hardwood
1000
m3
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Sawnwood exports – North America
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Softwood Hardwood
1000
m3
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Sawnwood exports – CIS
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Softwood Hardwood
1000
m3
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Sawnwood imports – Europe
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Softwood Hardwood
1000
m3
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Sawnwood trade – Europe
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Exports Imports
1000
m3
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Panels consumption – Europe
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Particleboard (with OSB) Plywood Fibreboard
1000
m3
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
MDF and OSB capacity – Europe
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
OSB MDF
1000
m3
Source: European Panel Federation, 2001
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
OSB Production
0
5
10
15
20
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
North America Europe
Mill
ion
m3
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Panel production – Europe
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Plywood Particleboard MDF
1000
m3
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Panel exports – Europe
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Particleboard MDF Plywood
1000
m3
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Panel imports – Europe
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Particleboard Plywood MDF
1000
m3
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Panels consumption – N. America1984-2002
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000
Particleboard (with OSB) Plywood Fibreboard
1000
m3
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Panels consumption – N. America1984-2002
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000
Particleboard Plywood Fibreboard OSB
1000
m3
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Panels production – CIS
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2001 2002
Production Consumption
1000
m3
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Utilization of roundwood – Europe
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Wood pulp Sawnwood Panels
1000
m3 e
qu
ival
ent
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Utilization of roundwood – N. America
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Wood pulp Sawnwood Panels
1000
m3 e
qu
ival
ent
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Utilization of roundwood – CIS1988-2002
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Wood pulp Sawnwood Panels
1000
m3 e
quiv
alen
t
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Further-processed product markets
• Example: engineered wood products
• Other examples: furniture, builders joinery and millwork
• Production and trade increasing rapidly
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Engineered Wood Products
• World glulam production +19% in 2000
• Wooden I-beams now 33% of North American floor area
• LVL (Laminated Veneer Lumber) production –6% in 2000 in North America, but +4% growth forecast
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Rapid growth in further processed products
Added value for:DiversificationProfitabilityAvoiding commodities cyclical movements
• Shift to low-cost production countries
• Reduction in international trade barriers
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
UNECE Timber Committee statement
• Expand existing markets
• Develop new products to meet evolving needs
• Develop new markets for wood products
• Increase the wood culture in the UNECE region
• Coordinate international promotion of environmental advantages of wood
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Conclusion:
Remember the key marketing principal
1. Know your market.
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Know your market.
Where is my market ?
Hei, up here,tollo poro !
FAO Puumarkkinapäivä, Lahti, 2001
Questions?
top related