OIL-IN-THE-SEA 2002 OIL-IN-THE-SEA 2002 PRESENT & FUTURE PREDICTIONS NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL.
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OIL-IN-THE-SEA2002
OIL-IN-THE-SEA2002
PRESENT & FUTURE PREDICTIONS
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
STATEMENT OF TASKS:STATEMENT OF TASKS:
1. UPDATE 1975 & 1985 REPORTS
2. REVIEW FUTURE PETROLEUM RESERVES & CONSUMPTION
24080160 2000200600Natural Seeps
AVERAGE ANNUAL RELEASES of PETROLEUM
4.32.33.0 622038Extraction of Petroleum
Transportation of Petroleum
117.49.1 260120150
Consumption of Petroleum
20001984 6000130480
2300110260 83004701300TOTAL
WorldwideNorth AmericaMax.Min.Best Est.Max.Min.Best est.
EXISTING STATUS OF RESERVESEXISTING STATUS OF RESERVES
TRENDS IN PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTIONTRENDS IN PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION
WORLD OIL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
60 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
YEAR
(mil
lio
ns
bb
l/d
ay)
Production
Consumption
From: Davis, 2000
U.S. OIL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
60 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
YEAR
(mil
lio
ns
bb
ls/d
ay)
Production
Consumption
From: Davis, 2000
FUTURE TRENDS – OIL & GASFUTURE TRENDS – OIL & GAS
ENERGY CONSUMPTION & IMPORTS
• IN NEXT 20 YEARS, U.S. OIL CONSUMPTION INCREASE BY33% AND NATURAL GAS BY 50%
• PRODUCTION IN U.S., CANADA, SOUTH AMERICA, EUROPE
AND AFRICA WILL BE DEPLETED IN 50 YEARS
• U.S. IMPORTS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY IN NEXT 50 YRS.
• IRAQ, SAUDI ARABIA, UAE, KUWAIT, & KAZAKHSTAN
HAS RESERVES FOR NEXT CENTURY
LESS THAN 10 YEARS 10 TO 50 YEARS
United States ChinaCanada Nigeria*
United Kingdom AlgeriaIndonesia* Columbia
Norway OmanEgypt India
Argentina Qatar*Australia RomaniaEcuador Yemen
Brunei
50 TO 100 YEARS MORE THAN 100 YEARS
Saudi Arabia Iraq*Russia United Arab Republics*
Iran* Kuwait*Venezuela* Kazakhstan
Mexico TurmenistanLibya* TunisiaBrazil Uzebekistan
AzerbaijanTrinidad (World's Remaining Oil in 75 Years)
OIL SUSTAINABILITY - CURRENT RATE OF PRODUCTION
Is the U.S. destined to remain dependent onMiddle East oil for the next 50 decades?
Is the U.S. destined to remain dependent onMiddle East oil for the next 50 decades?
GAS HYDRATE SAMPLEGAS HYDRATE SAMPLE
GAS HYDRATE HILL IN GULF OF MEXICOGAS HYDRATE HILL IN GULF OF MEXICO
WORLDWIDE DISTRIBUTIONOF GAS HYDRATES
WORLDWIDE DISTRIBUTIONOF GAS HYDRATES
164
200000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
Tri
llio
n C
ub
ic F
eet
US Natural Gas US Methane Hydrates
If only 1% of reserves recovered – 2,000 tcf
NEXT FIVE DECADES
• ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN US WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
• U.S. MUST ACCELERATE RESEARCH ON GAS HYDRATES
• PRODUCTION IN US WILL DECLINE & BE DEPLETED
• MORE MARITIME TRAFFIC – INCREASE CHANCE OF SPILLS
• IMPORTS TO NORTH AMERICA WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
• PETROLEUM HYDROCARBON POLLUTION FROM COASTAL
FACILITIES WILL INCREASE
• POLLUTION FROM O&G OPERATIONS WILL DECREASE
• TO REDUCE PETROLEUM HYDROCARBON POLLUTION, NEW
REGULATIONS WILL HAVE TO BE PUT INTO PLACE TO
CURB URBAN RUNOFF
• NATURAL SEEPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAIN SOURCE OF
POLLUTION
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