OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 - INAI - II Conferencia INAI - Holger Matthey.pdf · OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 Holger Matthey ... AFRICA AMERICAS ASIA EUROPE
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OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024
Holger MattheyFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
II. International Conference on Agribusiness Projections
Buenos Aires, December 3, 2015
2
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook
• Joint OECD-FAO report published annually in June
• 10 year horizon
• Model based projection validated through global expert consensus
• Major temperate commodities
• Global coverage
• Special theme chapter
4
Key macroeconomic assumptions
• Global population growth 1% p.a., but strong regional differences remain
• Moderate economic growth in the OECD area
• Slight slowdown in major emerging economies
• Crude oil reference price between $64 and $88
• US dollar appreciates against most currencies
• Moderate inflation in most economies
5
Highlights of the Outlook
• Demand for animal protein drives global food markets
• Production responds with productivity improvements
• Prices: – Real prices to resume their long-term secular decline– Relative price are changing
• Calmer markets but a risk of resurgent volatility
• Export concentration increases market risks
6
Emerging economies closing calorie gap
• Rising incomes, changing preferences and increasing urbanisation drive evolution of diets
• Countries face various forms of malnutrition –from hunger to obesity
• Foods of animal origin expand fastest in all country groups
Note: the figures only include commodities covered in the Outlook
7
Protein intake levels remain uneven
• Ongoing evolution of diets increases share of protein
• Consumption growth from animal protein while vegetal intake stagnates in all country groups
• Poultry meat and fresh dairy products supply bulk of additional protein
Note: the figures only include commodities covered in the Outlook
8
Production growth concentrated in regions where resources are less constraining
• Evolving dietary preferences drive production decisions in favor of meat, dairy and feed crops
• Robust, but lower production growth than last decade
• Fastest crops expansion rate in the Americas and Africa based on yield and area growth
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World exports concentrated
Concentration of exports, 2024
• Strong regional differences persist
• US, EU and Brazil remain among top exporters
• In addition to sugar, Brazil will become leading exporter of beef and poultry
• Increased market risks, associated with natural disasters or the adoption of disruptive trade measures
EUROPE OCEANIAASIAAMERICASAFRICA
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World imports dispersed
Concentration of imports, 2024
• China stands out as main importer of many commodities
• Trade pattern between developing and developed countries will persist
• Trade and domestic policies are expected to influence trade patterns
EUROPE OCEANIAASIAAMERICASAFRICA
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Prices to remain higher than the years preceding the 2007-08 price spike
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Index (2012-14=100)
Cereals Dairy Meat Oilseeds
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Long term real price trend
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200USD/t
Real Maize Price Long Term Trend
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Stochastic coarse grain price
10th
90th
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Coarse grains
USD/t
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Uncertainties
Uncertainties around the main drivers and assumptions such as:
• Macroeconomic trends– Energy prices
• Evolution of – Policies around the world– Tastes and preferences– Technology– Climate
We invite you to visit our websitewww.agri-outlook.org
For inquiries or further information, please contact:
Gregoire Tallardtad.contact@oecd.orgTrade and Agriculture Directorate(OECD)
Holger Matthey EST-Projections@fao.orgTrade and Markets Division(FAO)
http://www.agri-outlook.org/
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