Objectives Predict the Response of a Facility to Attack by Military or Terrorist Weapons
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
• Objectives° Predict the Response of a
Facility to Attack by Military or Terrorist Weapons
° Develop Response Models for use as Targeting Aids
Facility Vulnerability Analysis
• Program Started in 1995• Primary Sponsor DTRA• Other Current Sponsors:
• DIA• NRC
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
• Facility Kill Probability• Facility Core Melt Probability• Facility Downtime Estimates • Facility Model Editor • Event/Fault Tree Editor
Visual Interactive Site Analysis Code
VISAC Integrates the Following Functions in one Code
Provides: • Facility Damage/Consequence Contour Maps• VERY FAST “what if”Analysis for Various
Accident/Incident Scenarios
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
VISAC – Truck Bomb
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Aerial Attack
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Terrorist Attacks Against American Targets Using Car-Bomb Technology
Date Target/Location Delivery/Material TNT equiv (lbs)
Apr 1983 US Embassy Beirut, Lebanon
van
2000
Oct 1983 US Marine Barracks Beirut, Lebanon
truck, TNT with gas enhancement
12000
Feb 1993 World Trade Center New York, USA
van, urea nitrate and hydrogen gas
2000
Apr 1995 Murrah Federal Bldg Oklahoma City, USA
truck, ammonium nitrate fuel oil
5000
Jun 1996 Khobar Towers Dhahran, Saudi Arabia
tanker truck, plastic explosive
20000
Aug 1998 US Embassy Nairobi, Kenya
truck, TNT, possibly Semtex
1000
Aug 1998 US Embassy Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
truck 1000
Oct 2000 Destroyer USS Cole Aden Harbor, Yemen
small watercraft, possibly C-4
440
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Visual Interactive Site Analysis Codefor Facility Vulnerability Analysis
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
User Describes Attack (Incidents) Defined Accident – specific systems fail
Component Damage – individual components fail with specified probabilities
Region Damage – all components in an area fail
Quick Blast – place any size charge, weapon, truck bomb, etc. inside or outside of a building using TNT, C4,, etc.
Multiple incidents can be specified with any combination or timing
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Facility Models – Basic and Detailed Geometry
Based on BRL-CAD format Facilities consist of buildings made of concrete
walls Critical components inside or outside buildings
Logic Critical components grouped together into fault
trees for each system Event trees group together the systems and
evaluate consequences Multiple aspects can be examined at once (facility
kill, core damage, fire, etc)
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Current Facilities – Basic Modelsname MWe # Vendor Type Class
p08 786 single Babcock and Wilcox PWRp07 1070 twin Combustion Engineering PWRp05 870 single Combustion Engineering PWRp04 835 twin Combustion Engineering PWRp14 1180 single General Electric BWR Mark 3p12 1110 twin General Electric BWR Mark 2p03 1100 twin General Electric BWR Mark 1p11 772 twin General Electric BWR Mark 1p09 1251 twin Westinghouse PWR 4-loopp06 1137 single Westinghouse PWR 4-loopp10 1117 twin Westinghouse PWR 4-loopp15 1040 twin Westinghouse PWR 4-loopp02 965 single Westinghouse PWR 4-loopp01 950 single Westinghouse PWR 4-loopp13 800 twin Westinghouse PWR 3-loopswest560 560 single Westinghouse PWR 2-loop
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Current Facilities – Detailed Models
name MWe Description
rbmk 1500 Soviet pressurized channel reactorwest560 560 Westinghouse 2-loop PWRmagnox 42 gas cooled production reactorpurex Hanford Purex reprocessing plantreprocfac Consolidated Fuels Reprocessing Facility Inc.
p03 1100 General Electric twin BWR Mark1p13 800 Westinghouse twin 3-loop PWR
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Midsize Pressurized Water Reactor(PWR)
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Reprocessing Plant
MBLM CodeAerosol Release
Resulting Temperatures and Pressures
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Russian Designed
Power Reactor
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
A Detailed Facility
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
VISAC Output Consequence probabilities for each event tree Failure probabilities for each fault tree system Facility downtime estimate Release information (for HPAC) Lists of walls broken and hole size estimates
An Example 3500 lbs TNT truck bomb outside of control room 97.7% probability of a large early release Facility would be unable to operate for 4 months
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Graphical Presentation of VISAC Output
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Grids of Blast Points – Threat Contours
Each library facility has 3 pre-calculated grids User can search grids for specific outcomes User can generate new grids for his own plants Grid points can be used as incidents (attack points) VISAC has automated grid creation for new plants
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Three Ways To Use VISAC View library facilities and their pre-calculated
grids of blast points use viewers to explore the geometry and logic search grids for specific outcomes
Run “what-if” scenarios using different attacks on the library facilities accidents, component damage, bomb blasts find release probabilities, facility kill & downtime
Create a new facility based on the library model and add new buildings model any aspect of facility operation calculate grids of blast points use just like a library facility
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Bob MorrisOak Ridge National LaboratoryP.O. Box 2008 Oak Ridge, TN 37831-6363Phone: 865-576-5878Fax: 865-574-9619MorrisRH@ORNL.gov
Facility Vulnerability Program
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
BACK UP Slides
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Model Fidelity Effect on Facility Vulnerability Results
Building Level vs. Component Level Models
Building Level Component Level
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
P W R F ac i l i t yK i l l
S c r e e n h o u s eP u m p s
L o w P r e s s u r eTu r b i n e s
C RM A
P W R F acility K ill F au lt T ree fo r E V A -3 D
C o n tr o lP an e l s
S W P sC W P s
C o n tr o lR o o m P an e l s
L P T2
C RM C
C RM B
S W P1 B 2
S W P1 B 1
C W P1 B
C W P1 A
R e l a y R o o mP an e l s
R R PB
R R PA
R xV e s s e l
H PTu r b i n e
G e n -e r a t o r
M ai nTr a n s fo r m e r s
S t e amG e n e r at o r s
S W P1 A 1
S W P1 A 2
L P T1
S G1 A
S G1 B
C RE A
Tr n s1 B
Tr n s1 C
Tr n s1 A
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
PWR Transient Event Tree
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
PWR LOCA Event Tree
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
PWR LOOP Event Tree
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
PWR LPLA Event Tree
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
N o A F WS ys t e m
S te am R e l i e f M o to r -D r i ve nP u m p s
P m p1 B
P m p1 A
L o ss o f A u x ilia ry F eed w ater S ystem
W at e r
Tr a i n BTr a i n A O n s i t eW ate r S W S
Tr a i n BP o w e r
Tr a i n AS te a m R e l i e f
Tr a i n AP o w e r
Tr a i n BS te a m R e l i e f C S TsS G
1 AS G1 B
C S T1 B
C S T1 A
S GR 1 B
A t mV 1 B
S GR 1 A
A t mV 1 A
R M W S Ts
Ta n k1 B
Tan k1 A
Tr a i n BP u m p
Tr a i n AP u m p
S W S
Fault Trees for Calculating Core Melt Probabilities
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
L oss o f S erv ice W ater S ystem
N o S e r vi c e W ate rS ys t e m
S c r e e n sS W SP u m p s /S t r a i n e r s
IA SC o m p r e s s o r s W at e r
1 B 1 1 B 2
P m p s /S t r n s1 A 1 /1 A 2
P m p s /S t r n s1 A 1 /1 B 1
P m p s /S tr n s1 A 1 /1 B 2
P m p s /S tr n s1 A 2 /1 B 1
P m p s /S t r n s1 A 2 /1 B 2
P m p s /S t r n s1 B 1 /1 B 2
1 A 1 1 A 2
1 A 1 1 B 1 1 A 1 1 B 2 1 A 2 1 B 1 1 A 2 1 B 2
1 B 1 1 B 2
1 A 1 1 A 2
Tr a i n AP o w e r
Tr a i n BP o w e r
Tr a i n AP o w e r
Tr a i n BP o w e r
Tr ai n AP m p s /S tr n s
Tr ai n s A /BP m p s /S t r n s
Tr a i n BP m p s /S tr n s
P m p s /S t r n s1 A /1 B
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OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
N o O n - s i t eP o w e r
C o n t r o l B at t e r i e s
L o ss o f O n -site P ow er
D i e s e lG e n e r a to r s
Tr ai n 1 Tr a i n 2
D i e s e l1
D i e s e l2
G e n1 A
B t t r y1
G e n1 B
G e n2 A
G e n2 B
B t t r y2
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