Nuclear Power in Ireland: Facts and Fiction Philip W. Walton UL, February 2012 1 .

Nuclear Power in Ireland:Facts and Fiction

Philip W. Walton

UL, February 2012

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www.bene.ie

M. King Hubbert (1956) “Nuclear Energy and the Fossil fuels”

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Constraints in Ireland

•Global warming; must reduce GHG emissions

•Decline of fossil fuels- Peak oil (about now) - Peak gas (≈2025) + shale gas- Peak coal (≈2030)

- Energy Watch Group, Germany

•1999 Electricity Regulation Act (forbids NP)

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Advantages of Nuclear Power for Ireland

• Negligible GHG or other emissions

(Dr. Fred Udo: Ireland’s CO2 increased with wind energy)

• Virtually sustainable

• Stable fuel suppliers (Canada, Australia)

• Proven mature technology (13,000 reactor years)

• Economic (cheaper electricity and spin off - see later)

• No need for major grid modifications

• 90% load factor (wind 30%, though 21.5% in 2010)

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Nuclear Power Worldwide(January 2012)

• 434 NPP’s in operation (15% of world’s electricity)

• 61 under construction

• 509 planned or proposed (Renaissance)(Pre Fukushima number was 478)

• 30 countries have NP and 19 proposing (others considering)

Nuclear Power in some European CountriesCountry NPP’s

operating% of Elect-ricity

Under constr-uction

No. Planned

No. Propose

d

Comment

France 58 75% 1 1 1

Sweden 10 35% 0 0 0 Decision to phase out rescinded

Finland 4 33% 1 0 2 Building repository

Italy 0 0 0 0 10 Stopped plans after Chernobyl; restarted and then stopped post

Fukushima

Ukraine 15 48% 0 2 11 Chernobyl location

Belarus 0 0 0 2 2 Adjacent to Chernobyl

Germany

9 28% 0 0 0 Fuk: phase out by 2022Political expediency

(increase of 40mT/y CO2)

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Nuclear Power in some non-European Countries

Country NPP’soperating

% of Elect-ricity

Under constr-uction

No. Planned

No. Proposed

Comment

USA 104 20.2% 1 9 22 Doldrums since TMI

China 13 1.9% 23 39 120

India 19 2.2% 4 20 40

Russia 32 17.8% 10 14 30

United Arab

Emerates

0 0 0 4 10 “Oil rich” country

Saudi Arabia

0 0 0 0 16 “Oil rich” country

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Ireland’s target for electricity production •40% electricity from renewables by 2020 (11% now)

- primarily wind (variability problem)- Eirgrid says instantaneous limit for wind is 50%- limited hydroelectricity- tidal power is limited (variable)- wave power unproven (variable)- wind needs back up - unchartered territory- where does 60% come from?

• 40% would need ~2000 windmills (120m high)- €11bn (ESB) for grid expansion- backup required (eg: 6th Feb, wind =16MW)

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Wind energy elsewhere

Denmark; world leaders for 30 years- have ready back-up from Norway, Sweden & Germany- only achieves 9.7% from wind

Spain; press reports “…50% during October..”- on one Sunday morning with low demand

and favourable wind- actual average is 11%

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Spirit of Ireland (May 2009) initiative

“Natural Energy Power Station” - wind turbines on West coast combined with pumped storage in newly created reservoir(s)

Quoted specifications (tentative):• 700MW average power (1800MW installed wind) • lifetime; 25 years• storage energy; 100GWhrs• cost; €3.45bn• cost of electricity; 7.5 cents/kWh

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“Spirit of Ireland” power station (700MW) would require:

• Approx. 600 wind turbines (3MW each, 120m high)

• 18 square kilometers of reservoir (20m depth, 120m elevation)

• €300m for “wiring”

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Nuclear Power station

Spirit of Ireland Comment

Power 700MW 700MW

Footprint 15 acres 4500 acre lake,600 turbines

Lifetime 60 years 25 years

Capital cost €1.8bn €3.45bn

Electricity cost 5c/kWh(OECD 2008)

7.5c/kWh See next slide

Grid requirements Little change Extensive change (€300m)

“Compare and contrast” SOI station to a nuclear power station

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Irish Academy of Engineering Study 2009

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Suitable nuclear reactors

Westinghouse 225MW small modular reactor (SMR)

- modular: factory manufacture- reduces costs- better quality control

- advanced passive- 7 days safe operation after failure

- available 2020- scaled down version of AP1000 (PWR)- 24 months refuelling

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Pebble bed modular reactor (PBMR)- 210 MW (China building)- uses spherical fuel elements (“pebbles”)- high temperature gas cooled- inherently safe (natural convection adequate)- being developed in the USA & China- German technology

International Framework for Nuclear Energy Cooperation (IFNEC)

Suitable nuclear reactors (contd.)

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Official Irish bodies urging government to consider nuclear power; (selection of)

• Eirgrid

• Engineers Ireland

• ESB strategy

• ESRI Working Paper No. 229

• Forfas

• The Irish Academy of Engineering

• Irish Congress of Trade Unions (ICTU)

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Whither nuclear power for Ireland

1.Rescind amendment to Electricity Regulation Act (1999) which forbids nuclear power in Ireland

2. Form an expert group to advise Government on Nuclear Power and energy post 2020

- complex question with high wind penetration- is NP suitable for Ireland?- use of interconnectors to share NP with the UK or

France?- funding sources; AREVA (France)?,

ENDESA (Spain)?