Nov 2012 global warming drought trend

Drought trends

Dr. Peter Carter

Drought trends

USA 2012

Global average temperature increase

All the worlds best food producing regions are in the Northern hemisphere

Any effect on NH food production increases world food prices severely increasing the Global South’s food insecurity.

FIGURE 11 | Mean annual sc-PDSI pm for years (a) 1950–1959, (b) 1975–1984, (c) 2000–2009, (using the 22-model ensemble-mean surface air temperature, precipitation, humidity, net radiation, and wind speed used in the IPCC AR4 from the 20th century

Drought under global warming: a review Aiguo Dai Wiley Jan 2011

Increasing global drought 1950-2009

Palmer Drought Severity Index

PDSI

FIGURE 11 | Mean annual sc-PDSI pm for years (a) 1950–1959, (b) 1975–1984, (c) 2000–2009, (using the 22-model ensemble-mean surface air temperature, precipitation, humidity, net radiation, and wind speed used in the IPCC AR4 from the 20th century

Drought under global warming: a review Aiguo Dai Wiley Jan 2011

Increasing global drought affects most of the worlds best producing regions

Palmer Drought Severity Index

PDSI

FIGURE 11 | Mean annual sc-PDSI pm for years (a) 1950–1959, (b) 1975–1984, (c) 2000–2009, (using the 22-model ensemble-mean surface air temperature, precipitation, humidity, net radiation, and wind speed used in the IPCC AR4 from the 20th century

Drought under global warming: a review Aiguo Dai Wiley Jan 2011

Increasing regional Northern hemisphere drought 1950-2009

Palmer Drought Severity Index

PDSI

http://drought.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/drought.html

Palmer Drought Severity index

Palmer Drought Severity index

Palmer Drought Severity index

12 months UCL algorithm

12 months UCL algorithm

Northern hemisphere

12 months UCL algorithm

12 months UCL algorithm

NASA GISS

NASA GISS

NH SH

Average temp increase

Decadal Northern hemisphere warming trend

Perception of climate change James Hansena,1, Contributed by James Hansen, March 29, 2012

With global warming NH summer heat extremes are increasing.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/

2012 to September NOAA

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/

2012 to September NOAA

Rapid loss of Far North and Arctic snow and ice albedo cooling could be expected to increase NH drought. Research indicates the jet stream is being altered with a tendency to prolonging droughts.

Rapid 2012 record loss of Arctic albedo cooling

It is thought that the faster retreat of the spring-summer far North snow cover is a big part of increasing NH drought. Variation from the post-1967 historical norm in June snow cover, June 2012. Dark orange corresponds to between 75 and 100 percent below average. Image: From Rutgers University Climate Lab

Northern Hemisphere

Visible Satellite Monthly Departure (from 1971-2000 mean)

June 2012 record loss of Arctic snow cover albedo cooling

http://bprc.osu.edu/wiki/Greenland_Ice_Albedo_Monitoring

Less albedo reflection cooling

July 2012 record Greenland ice surface loss of albedo cooling Melt water covering the Greenland ice surface lowers albedo

2012 record loss of Arctic sea ice albedo and record loss of Greenland albedo cooling