Transcript
#noestimateswhy going against the tide
cannot bring you anything good!
info@massimoiacolare.it@iacoware
Massimo Iacolarelinkedin
Massimo Iacolare
co-founder of the awesome
freelance
.net and js expert
love shipping features
love making users happy
quality addicted
Estimating sucks!
Estimating sucks!End of story
Estimating sucks!End of story
Questions?
#noestimates‣Woody Zuill started the hashtag on twitter
‣nothing new, just a new (bigger) wave
‣lot of buzz, lately
If you found estimates bring no value what would you do?
nitpicker corner
nitpicker corner
#noestimates it’s an invitation, a challenge
nitpicker corner
#noestimates it’s an invitation, a challenge
…it doesn’t literally mean never use estimates!The trouble with #noestimates
Why so interested?
Software development
…and why estimating (really) sucks!
Part 1
no best practices
social interactions
learning activityintegration
non deterministic
no best practices
social interactions
learning activityintegration
Cynefin framework
Cynefin framework
Cynefin framework
Predictable
Cynefin framework
Emergent Predictable
ok, understood!
lets get back to estimates
Unreliable: adj
Unreliable: adjnot able to berelied upon,untrustwhorty
Asked at the beginning of a project
Asked at the beginning of a project
Someone said cone of uncertainty?
Asked at the beginning of a project
Someone said cone of uncertainty?pr
ojec
t kno
wle
dge
time
cone of uncertainty
Cost of a feature =
Cost of a feature =
Essential complexity +
Cost of a feature =
Essential complexity
Accidental complexity+
from “No silver bullet” Fred Brooks, 1995
How much time do you need to add “XYZ”?
How much time do you need to add “XYZ”?
Cognitive biases
Cognitive biasesOptimism bias
Cognitive biasesOptimism bias
Anchoring bias
Cognitive biasesOptimism bias
Anchoring biasLoss aversion
Cognitive biasesOptimism bias
Anchoring bias
Availability bias
Selective perception
Loss aversion
List of cognitive biases
My point is…if you’re rigorous and determined
you can make them work… well “kind of”
My point is…if you’re rigorous and determined
you can make them work… well “kind of”
Worth the effort?
My point is…if you’re rigorous and determined
you can make them work… well “kind of”
Worth the effort?Are they a a mean or a goal?
Part 2
Why?
Historical reasons
Historical reasons
management techniques derived from traditional
businesses
Management science’s impossible quest: in search of predictability
The impossible quest for
predictability
Prioritization
Prioritizationestimates == prioritise on costs
Prioritizationestimates == prioritise on costs
learning should be your first priority
Introducing deliberate discovery
Delivery date
Delivery dateorder-of-magnitude
estimates are enough
Delivery dateorder-of-magnitude
estimates are enough
fixed-time fixed-budget more common and useful
Part 3
the
Few assumptions
Few assumptions‣ Relevant parts sits in the
Complex Domain
‣ Unpredictable business
‣ Detailed planning won’t save us
Few assumptions‣ Relevant parts sits in the
Complex Domain
‣ Unpredictable business
‣ Detailed planning won’t save us
Few ideas…
Establish a tight feedback loop
at all levels: tdd, continuous delivery, customer
Establish a tight feedback loop
at all levels: tdd, continuous delivery, customer
only thing that works in emergent domains
Just enough planning
Just enough planningJust-in-time planning
Just enough planningJust-in-time planning
context changed
assumptions debunkedmore knowledge
Just enough planningJust-in-time planning
context changed
assumptions debunkedmore knowledge
explore new options
Iterate like there is no tomorrow
Iterate like there is no tomorrow
working in iterations doesn’t mean iterating
Embrace uncertainty
Become a master in slicing scope
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Become a master in slicing scope
you’ll meet deadlines too!
Login Catalog Add to cart Checkout
estimate lesscode more
Thanks
Questions?
info@massimoiacolare.it@iacoware
Massimo Iacolarelinkedin
I stand on the shoulders of giantsWoody Zuill blog
Vasco Duarte blog
Neil Killick blog
AgileCamp perfect flow - Gabriele Lana part1 - ITA
AgileCamp perfect flow - Gabriele Lana part2 - ITA
Estimation is the root of most software project failures
Stop using story points
The perils of estimation
…and many, many more. Thank you all!
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