©NIDEA 1 Natalie Jackson The demographic forces shaping service provision - and demand Professor of Demography, National Institute of Demographic and Economic.
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©NIDEA 1
Natalie Jackson
The demographic forces shaping service provision - and demand
Professor of Demography, National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA)
Natalie Jackson Demographics Ltd
Presentation to WasteMINZ ROUNDUP 2014, Queenstown April 3rd 2014
©NIDEA 2
Population ageing – what does it mean for WasteMINZ?
• The demographic forces shaping our future– More elderly than children– Fewer labour market entrants than exits– More deaths than births > the end of growth– Urban agglomeration versus subnational
population decline• Regional impacts of demographic and economic change (Nga Tangata Oho Mairangi) - MBIE• The subnational mechanisms of the ending of growth – towards a theory of depopulation (Tai
Timu Tangata, Taihoa e ) – Marsden• Jackson (forthcoming) Planning for a demographically-tight labour market - New Zealand’s
ageing occupations and industries
©NIDEA 3
Population ageing – New Zealand style
0-4 5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84
85+
6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0
1961
percentage at each age
Male Fe-male
0-4 5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84
85+
6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0
2013
percentage at each age
Male Female
14.2% aged 65+8.6 % 65+ years
Me
©NIDEA 4
The Big Picture
©NIDEA 5
The very big pictureProjected Pop. 2011-2031
Change at 65+ Years
Change - all other age groups combined
MDCs (58*)(<5%)
49% (+98 million)
-4%(-41million)
Auckland(33%)
112% 23%
The Rest (NZ)(11%)
88% -1.5%
*US Census Bureau International Database; Statistics NZ 2012 Projected subnational population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2006(base)-2031 [2012 Update]
©NIDEA 6
Drilling downProjected Pop. 2011-2031
65+ Years All other age groups combined
North Island(19.7%)
90.4% (+387,690)
9.4%(274,760)
South Island(12.2%)
83.4%(+131,920)
-0.6%(-4,970)
Statistics NZ 2012 Projected subnational population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2006(base)-2031 [2012 Update]
©NIDEA 7
0-4 5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90+
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140New Zealand - Projected change by age (%) (MEDIUM)
2011-2021 (8.9%)2011-2031 (17.9%)
Perc
enta
ge C
hang
e
Ageing-driven growth is not the same as youth-driven growth
Source: Statistics NZ 2012 Projected population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2011(base)-2061
©NIDEA 8
New Zealand - more elderly than children within 12 years
1901
1911
1921
1936
1951
1961
1971
1981
1991
2001
2011
2021
2031
2041
2051
2061
0200,000400,000600,000800,000
1,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0001,800,000
0-14 years65+ years
Num
ber
Projected
Source: Statistics NZ 2012 Projected population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2011(base)-2061
Already crossed over in 22% TAs
©NIDEA 9
• Between 2011 and 2031 all growth in 56 (84%) Territorial Authority Areas is projected to be at 65+ years; all are projected to see overall decline at 0-64 years:
• Only 11 TAs escape this scenario
• Growth will end in most TAs
Ageing-driven growth
©NIDEA 10
2013 Census• 2006-2013: Auckland
accounted for 52% of growth
• Auckland plus 11 cities accounted for 75% of growth
• Elsewhere - patchy growth, widespread/ deepening decline
• Of 1971 census area units with resident populations in 2006, 35% declined (647) or had zero growth (39)
• The data confirm past trends / mixed futures..
©NIDEA 11
2001-2006
• End of growth / depopulation not a new issue, but it is spreading and its cause is changing
• Old form of decline = net migration loss (was resolvable)
• New form of decline = net migration loss plus natural decline (self-reinforcing)
©NIDEA 12
Northland Region
Auckland Region
Waika
to Region
Bay of P
lenty Region
Gisborn
e Region
Hawke's
Bay Region
Taranaki
Region
Manawatu-W
anganui Region
Wellin
gton Region
Tasman Region
Nelson Region
Marlb
orough Region
West
Coast Region
Canterbury
Region
Otago Region
Southland Region
-100
10203040506070 Auckland and ‘The Rest’ 2006-2011
2011-162016-212021-262026-31
Perc
enta
ge o
f all
grow
th
This disparate situation is projected to continue
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections: 2006(base)–2031 (October 2012 update)
©NIDEA 13
Enter - the demographically-tight labour market- Baby Boomer Retirement (NZ 1 mill.)- Competition for labour supply
- Between industries (incl. education), regions, countries..
©NIDEA 14
2011
-201
6
2016
-202
1
2021
-202
6
2026
-203
1
2031
-203
6
2036
-204
1
1041
-204
6
2046
-205
1
2051
-205
6
2056
-206
1
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
Projected change in numbers at 15-19 years (Total NZ)
TGYH
NZ: 28,000 fewer school leavers over the next 10 years
Source: Statistics NZ 2012 Projected population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2011(base)-2061
What do these trends mean for your
industry?
©NIDEA 15
..it is happening - fewer school leavers are coming to a town near you
©NIDEA 16
..it will get worse before it gets better – and then the respite will be patchy
©NIDEA 17
1996 2001 2006 20130.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.02.7
1.4
0.9
1.6
0.90.6
Ratio of employed labour force by broad age group
15-29: 55+ years
15-24: 55+ years
Ratio
Already fewer younger than older employed workers
©NIDEA 18
Goodbye youth unemployment
©NIDEA 19
19011916
19361956
19711986
20012016
20312046
20610.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5Projected 15-24 : 55+ years
55+15-24
mill
ions
Enter ageing workforces -
Source: The Economist, April 9 2011
©NIDEA 20
New Zealand Employed Labour Force 1996, 2013 (+22.7%)
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0
2013
percentage at each age
ag
e
Male Fe-male
23.6%
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
1996
percentage at each age
Male Female
Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Occupation Database
11.5%
27:10 9:10
Ratio 15-29: 55+ years: 1996 = 27:10; 2006 = 9:10
In 2013, Boomers aged
48-67 years
©NIDEA 21
New Zealand’s Refuse Collectors 1996, 2013 (+19.9%)
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0
2013 (N = 849)
percentage at each age
ag
e
Male Fe-male
25%
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0
1996 (N = 708)
percentage at each age
Male Female
Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Occupation Database
9%
32:10 10:10
Ratio 15-29: 55+ years: 1996 = 32:10; 2006 = 10:10
National workforce 2013: 23.6% 55+ years
©NIDEA 22
New Zealand’s Heavy Truck/Tanker Drivers 1996, 2013 (+6.7%)
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0
2013 (N = 23,235)
percentage at each age
ag
e
Male Fe-male
29%
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0
1996 (N = 21,783)
percentage at each age
Male Female
Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Occupation Database
9%
28:10 4:10
Ratio 15-29: 55+ years: 1996 = 28:10; 2006 = 4:10
National workforce 2013: 23.6% 55+ years
©NIDEA 23
NZ’s Senior Government Administrators 1996-2013 (+140%)
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0
2013 (N = 2,754)
percentage at each age
ag
e
Male Fe-male
33%
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0
1996 (N = 1,149)
percentage at each age
Male Female
Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Industry Database
16%
7:10 4:10
National workforce 2013: 23.6% 55+ years
Ratio 15-29: 55+ years: 1996 =7:10; 2013 = 4: 10
©NIDEA 24
Specialised Managers 1996-2013 (+72%)
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0
2013 (N = 231,420)
percentage at each age
ag
e
Male Fe-male
23%
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75+
10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0
1996 (N = 134,706)
percentage at each age
Male Female
Source: Statistics New Zealand Customised Industry Database
12%
14:10 6:10
National workforce 2013: 23.6% 55+ years
Ratio 15-29: 55+ years: 1996 =14:10; 2013 = 6: 10
©NIDEA 25
Growing competition --hello increasing labour costs
©NIDEA 26
There will be increasing competition generally
The Economist, April 9th 2011
©NIDEA 27
Regional competition
©NIDEA 28
Regions - ageing rapidly – who you ‘gonna call?
0-4 5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84
85+
6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0
Thames-Coromandel 2013(1996 Unshaded)
percentage at each age
Male Female
65+ years: 16.4% (11.7%) 65+ years: 25.6% (19%)
0-4 5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84
85+
6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0
Clutha 2013(1996 Unshaded)
percentage at each age
Male Female
©NIDEA 29
Regions differ markedly – Auckland OK, Christchurch.. ??
0-4 5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84
85+
6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0
Auckland 2013(1996 Unshaded)
percentage at each age
Male Female
65+ years: 11.2% (10.1%) 65+ years: 14.9% (13.4%)
0-4 5-9
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84
85+
6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0
Christchurch City 2013(1996 Unshaded)
percentage at each age
Male Female
©NIDEA 30
Most TA’s will soon have fewer labour market entrants than exits
Observed Projected
1996 2001 2006 2013 2016 2021 2026 20310
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
6.8
27.4
35.6
49.3
68.5
83.6 80.8
69.9
Perc
enta
ge T
A’s w
ith fe
wer
ent
rant
s th
an e
xits
Source: Statistics New Zealand, Estimated Resident Population;(1996-2013) ;Subnational Population Projections: 2006(base)–2031 (October 2012 update)
Hamilton?
©NIDEA 31
Population ageing is here to stay• It is coming to a WasteMINZ service
near you• It will drive down labour supply and
drive up labour costs• It will see the permanent end of
growth / onset of depopulation in most rural areas
• We urgently need to rethink most types of service delivery (and demand)
• Accept • Buffer• Collaborate/Conserve
Time to rethink demand/service delivery
©NIDEA 32
• Thankyou
• natalie.jackson@waikato.ac.nz• www.waikato.ac.nz/nidea
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