Transcript
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
1/38
ASIAN TRADER INVESTOR CONFERENCE 2011
SERIOUSLY, CAN THE REAL BULL KISS 2000 LEVEL BY 2012
BY DR. NAZRI KHAN, HEAD OF RETAIL RESEARCH, AFFIN INVESTMENT BANK
MARKET OUTLOOK AND STRATEGY
2011 - 2012
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
2/38
2
Malaysia is currently Southeast Asias third-largest economy.
Malaysia enjoyed a below average inflation rate of 3.1 per cent and a high
gross domestic savings rate of 42.2 per cent, indicating a stable and
flourishing economy.
Malaysias gross domestic product (GDP) growth per capita also
increased by an average of 7% since 1980 and 5% per year between 2004
and 2009.
Big transformation programme to transform the country into a high-
income nation by 2020 driven by planned investments worth RM1.38
trillion over 10 years of which 60% would come from the private sector,
32% from government-linked corporations and 8% from the government.
The investment aims to double Malaysias per capita income toUSD15,000 and push the country into the ranks of developed nations by
2020, rebalancing local economy towards domestic demand and the
service sector.
FUNDAMENTALS BACKDROP IS STILL ROBUST
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
3/38
3
Massive market-moving projects namely the RM64 billion KL mass rapid
transit (MRT) project and high-speed rail (HSR) linking Penang, RM10
billion for the Greater Kuala Lumpur, RM40 billion nuclear power plant
and hydroelectric dams, RM26 billion KL International Financial District,
RM1.2 billion six star hotel in KL Sentral and a RM500 million new
complex at the KL International Airport.
Biggest driver is RM10 billion for Talent Corporation meant to adddress
human capital development and reverse a growing brain drain problem,
where about 700,000 Malaysians are currently living abroad, with half of
them in Singapore and another half in Australia, Britain and the United
States.
Budget 2011 worth RM212b will be the super 2011 catalyst.
The budget is pro-growth and domestic-demand driven, with a clear
message of a private sector-led growth with the government acting as an
enabler and strong emphasis on private sector productivity, government
efficiency and country competitiveness.
FUNDAMENTALS BACKDROP IS STILL ROBUST
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
4/38
4
Strong economic focus on twelve NKEAs for new sources of growth
namely tourism, O&G, education, E&E, healthcare, palm oil, ICT,
agriculture, business services, financial services, wholesale & retail and
Greater KL.
Budget 2011 will give positive impacts on construction, infrastructure,
airlines & airport, auto, banks, consumer, healthcare, plantation, property,telco and utilities.
Fundamentals focus will be on USA economic recovery, QE2, Q4 results
(Malaysia & USA), NEM Part 2, strong Ringgit and rising funds inflow to
push bonds/equity higher.
Fundamentals valuations are reasonably undemanding at 14.6x FY11
earnings giving more rooms for the market to rise significantly higher.
FUNDAMENTALS BACKDROP IS STILL ROBUST
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
5/38
5
WORLD GDP 2011 = 4.2%, 2012 = 4.5%
GDP 2011 = 5%, GDP 2012 = 5.5%
GDP Q1 = 10.1% GDP Q2 = 8.9%, GDP Q3 = 5.3%, GDP Q4 = 3.2%
CPI 2011 = 3% 2012 = 3.5%, OPR 2011 = 3.25% 2012 = 3.75%
UNEMPLOYMENT 2011 = 3.5%, 2012 = 3.5%
CURRENT SURPLUS 2011 = 15% OF GDP, 2012 = 13% OF GDP
FOREIGN RESERVES 2011 = USD110b, 2012 = USD115b
USD/RINGGIT 2011 = 3.05, 2012 = 3.00
KEY ECONOMIC DATA 2011 AND 2012
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
6/38
MALAYSIA HAS POSITIVE FUNDAMENTAL AND TECHNICAL
BACKDROP LAST SEEN IN 1999
BULL UPCYCLE HAS STARTEDWITH 2008 LOW UNLIKELY
TO BE BROKEN IN THE NEXT 10 YEARS
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
7/38
7
The average length of a cyclical bull market is 3.5 years. The average length of a secular bull market is 12 years.
The average length of a bear market is 1.5 years.
The average bear market results in a decline of 36%.
The shortest bear market lasted two months such as in 1987 where Dowcorrected 36%.
A secular bear market trend is a long-term downtrend that usually lastslonger than 2 years up to 25 years.
Investors anticipating further losses are often motivated to sell, withnegative sentiment feeding on itself in a vicious circle.
STATISTICS ON BULLS AND BEARS
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
8/38
GLOBAL MARKET TECHNICALS REMAIN POSITIVE
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
9/38
9
BABY BULL HAS STARTED, DOW JONES SHOWED
A FAILED HEAD AND SHOULDER PATTERN
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
10/38
10
S&P 500 LOOKS SET TO HIT 1500 AS AN IMMEDIATE TARGET BASED
ON BULLISH MOVING AVERAGE CROSSOVERS
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
11/38
11NASDAQ IS MORE VOLATILEWITH 3000 AS THE IMMEDIATE TARGET
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
12/38
12
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE IS EXPECTED TO TREND HIGHER
WITH 3500 AS THE NEXT TARGET
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
13/38
13
BRAZIL IS STILL STRONGWITH 73000 TARGET
FOR THE CURRENT BULL RUN
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
14/38
14
INDIA IS THE ONLY EMERGING MARKET
TAKING A PAUSE IN THE CURRENT UPTREND
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
15/38
15
FBMKLCI YEARLY CHART SHOWS THAT THE SECULAR BULL
HAS STARTEDWHICH MAY LAST ANOTHER TEN YEARS
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
16/38
16
FBMKLCI IS MAKING A SUPERB V SHAPE PATTERN
ON THE QUARTERLY CHARTWITH STEEP ANGLE
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
17/38
17
TECHNICAL ESTIMATE FOR FBMKLCI
PEGS 1698, 1803 AND 1977 AS POTENTIAL TARGETS
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
18/38
INTERSECTOR ANALYSIS SUGGEST RISK TAKINGAND MORE BULLISHNESS
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
19/38
19
FINANCE SECTOR CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGEST
AFTER HITTING ALL TIME HIGH PRICES
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
20/38
20
PLANTATION SECTOR IS THE SECOND STRONGEST
WITH MORE UPSIDE TO COME
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
21/38
21
PROPERTIES SECTOR LOOKS CONVINCINGWITH 1,200
AS THE IMMEDIATE CHECKPOINT
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
22/38
22
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR IS BREAKING HIGHERWITH
STRONG ACCUMMULATION
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
23/38
23TECH SECTOR IS THEWEAKESTWITH A FIRM DOWNTREND IN PLACE
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
24/38
SELECTIVE STOCK PICKS TO MAXIMIZE UPSIDEPOTENTIALS
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
25/38
25
KARAMBUNAI SECULAR BULL HAS JUST STARTED
FOR LONG TERM TRADERS
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
26/38
26PERISAI BREAKS FROM THREE YEAR BOTTOM BASE
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
27/38
27
PETCHEM BREAKS RM6.00 PSYCHO RESISTANCE
AND SCORES 52WEEK HIGH
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
28/38
28MALAYSIA MARINE SHOWS HIGH RELATIVE STRENGTH
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
29/38
29PETDAG SETS TO HIT RM20.00WITH STEEP PARABOLIC CURVE
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
30/38
30HPI COMPLETES POWER CANDLE ON ALL TIME HIGH VOLUME
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
31/38
31MEDIA CHINESE DRAWS AMAZING VOLUME AT BOTTOM BASE
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
32/38
32
TAANN COMPLETES A SUPER CANDLE
WITH STRONG UPSIDE MOMENTUM
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
33/38
33
JAYATIASA SHOWS A SOLID UPTREND PATTERN
WITH GOOD VOLUME
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
34/38
34WTK HOLDING ON A SPRINT AIMING FOR RM2.20
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
35/38
35CYPARK JUST STARTS A YOUNG BULL UPCYCLE
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
36/38
36
SMPHB VIRTUALLY SCORES 12 YEAR HIGH
ON RISING INSTITUTIONAL INTEREST
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
37/38
37
Technical evidence suggests the subprime bear market has decisivelyended with the low of 2008 unlikely to be broken in the next ten years.
Now is the best time to enter with bullish multiple time confirmation.
FBMKLCI is expected to trend higher over the next ten years.
Stocks have exhibited high resilience in the long term with many positivemarket internals from important markets.
Market is in a super V shape with stronger bulls ahead.
Expect oil and gas stocks to lead the broad market rally.
Government commitment on economic reform the domestic front andstrong showing by China and India will contribute to near termbullishness in the local market.
Ten year transformation programme and rising Asian markets are
strongest fundamental factors towards Malaysia long term bullishness. Overall, odds favour strong bulls with positive long term technical picture
for Malaysia and other emerging markets.
FINALWORD :
BABY BULL HAS STARTED, CONTINUE ACCUMMULATING
8/7/2019 Nextview ATIC 2011
38/38
THANK YOU AND GOOD LUCK
HOPE TO SEE AGAIN IN THE NEXT ATIC
top related