Nearest neighbour analysis: toward improved inventory and ...
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Nearest neighbour analysis: toward improved inventory and planning for use of commercial forest resources in PNG
Rod Keenan
PNG– People– Landscapes– Forests
BRS project objectives and activitiesComponents of forest planningInventory and area issues Forest growth modellingIntegration and adoption
PNG Facts
Population 5.6 millionIncreasing at over 2.3% per yearLife expectancy 58 yearsHigh diversity of ethnic groups750 different languagesIndependent in 1975Australia’s largest aid recipient ($300 million/yr)
PNG Economy
Two worlds: formal and subsistence economiesHeavy reliance on commodity exportsPetroleumMining (copper, gold, silver)Agriculture (coffee, palm oil, cocoa, copra)Forest productsFishing
Real GDP growth
-4-202468
10
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
%
PNG people
PNG Landscapes
PNG Forests
History of commercial forest exploitationPre-1980
– Small-scale harvesting by Australian companies1980-1990
– Increased harvesting by Japanese, Malaysian companies– Barnett inquiry
1990 onwards– Ongoing exploitation– Strengthening of PNG-FA – role of National Forest Board – Code of Logging Practice– Variety of integrated conservation and development projects
PNG log production and consumption
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Cub
ic m
etre
sProductionExportsDomestic consumption
Log exports
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
Malaysia
Indonesia
Gabon
PNG
Myanmar
Others
volume ('000 m3)
200220012000
Log export destinations
0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000
1,000,000
China
Japa
nKore
a, Rep
. of
Taiwan
, P.O
.C*
Philipp
ines
Malays
iaHon
g Kon
g, S.A.R
.Cub
ic m
etre
s (ro
undw
ood
equi
vale
nt)
Current situation
Asian economic downturnDecline in demand and price of logsEmergence of Chinese marketMoratorium on new timber concessionsOngoing international pressure to reform timber industryPressure on government to release new concessions for harvesting
Planning methods for sustainable wood production in PNG
Funded by ACIARTranslating Australian experienceLinks Australian scientists with PNG2 years– Oct 2001 – Dec 2003
Partners
Goal
To improve operational forest management and planning capacity in PNG Forest Authority
Activities
Review current inventory methods and area systemsDevelop new inventory systemsReview and adapt forest growth models for use within planning systemsAssess impacts of alternative forest harvesting options on growing stock Develop and test forest planning and management systemsTraining and technology transfer
Why?
Rapid timber resource depletion due to uncertainty about: Inventory estimatesArea available for harvestFuture timber yieldsPlanning for protection of community and environmental values
Why plan?
Fundamental to sustainable forest managementDocument future forest management intentionsConsider and develop responses to changing forest management circumstances
Other imperatives
Government requirementsMarket pressureInvestor demands
SFM requirements
Policy goals and legal frameworkManagement plan that aims to produce the right mix of benefitsEffective implementation and controlMonitoring Resource protection
Current planning and inventory requirements in PNG
Company10%PCMPOperational plan (set-up)
Company1%Forestry Act and PCMP
Annual logging plan
Company1%Forestry Act5 year working plan
Company1%Forestry ActFMA project statement
PNGFA1%Forestry ActProvincial plan
PNGFA1%Forestry ActNational Forest Plan
ResponsibilityInventory Standard
Inventory/planning
requirement
Planning level
Components of forest timber harvest planning
Forest area statement (forest type, age class)
Inventory of timber and other
values
Integrated Analysis System
Model to project forest growth
What is sustainable harvest?
Growth Growth
Forest Stock
Forest Stock
Harvest
General pattern of production in unmanaged native forestTi
mbe
r sup
ply
per y
ear
Time
PNG Planning System Components:Area
Forest inventory and management system
1. Vegetation Type 2. Land use & Logged over 3. Topographic information 4. Constraints (limitations to logging) 5. Proposed & current concession areas
Problems with area assessment
Over estimates of the forest area Conservation issues not adequately considered Village/cultural requirements not adequately considered
landowner disagreementimpact of Code of Logging Practice constraints not adequately consideredAccessibility not adequately determinedroading access not known for strategic plan –areas may be uneconomic to road due to low volumes and/or highroading costs
Inventory: sample intensity by Province
Province NameSum of Sample Area Sum of Total Area
Average of Sample Intensity
Central 44 145,941 0.16%East New Britain 677 318,425 0.22%East Sepik 739 616,154 0.21%Eastern Highlands 151 25,700 0.62%Gulf 846 496,065 0.26%Madang 1,104 256,667 0.59%Milne Bay 774 202,603 0.50%Morobe 176 55,026 0.46%New Ireland 461 539,303 0.11%North Solomons 101 0Northern 310 363,899 0.23%Simbu 131 39,000 0.33%Southern Highlands 108 15,130 3.03%West New Britain 572 200,736 0.30%West Sepik 1,790 856,164 0.22%Western 1,570 1,177,410 0.40%Western Highlands 415 94,109 7.28%PNG total 9,969 5,402,332 0.53%
Inventory
Volu
me
0102030405060708090
100110120130140150160170
1 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2 3 4 5 6 9
Province
Precise
Imprecise
Unbiased Biased
Precise
Imprecise
Unbiased Biased
Problems with inventory
Inventory design is inadequate / biased Inventory out of date / not current: timber quality degraded through fire, disease or other disturbance Different log sale standards assessed to those applied during harvesting Inadequate assessment/allowance for log defect Different species utilisation
Growth modelling
What does a growth model do?... uses existing data… from a few places at a few points in time… to make inferences about forest growth… in different places, and at different times
Distribution of permanent sample plots
West Sepik
Wimare
TuramaWestern
Wawoi Guawi
Daru
Vanimo
Serra
Pual
Southern Highlands
East Sepik Lower Sepik
Vailala
Gulf
Wewak
Mt. Hagen
Ari
Central Kerema
Port Moresby
Iva Inika
Lae
Watut
Madang Madang
Morobe
Sogeram
ManusWest Coast
Oomsis/Mare/Yalu
Yema Gaepa
Oro
Orman Lako
Kui Buso
Central Arawe
Umboi
West New Britain
Anu Alimbit
Kapuluk
Kapiura
Popondetta
Embi Hanau
Gara Modewa
Mosa Leim
Umbukul
Milne Bay
Kavieng Kaut
East New Britain
Bougainville
New Ireland
Pasis Manua
Waterfall Bay
Inland Pomio
Gar Mokolkol
Dry Wara Rabaul
Cape Orford
Central N.I.
Lark
Alotau
Enga
Hawain
Kimbe
Krisa
Mt Giluwe
Mussau
Pulie Anu
Sagarai Gadaisu
Honoda A tHuvivi Monge
Busiga
Malamu
Wasap
Morere
Maubula
Figure 6 : Comparison of simulation runs
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120Year
Bole
vol
ume
(m3/
ha)
> 50 cm
> 60 cm
> 60 cm low impact
ITTO plots at Wasap, Madang Province, March1995
Figure 5 : Yields per cutting cycle
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
35 70 105Year of harvest
Volu
mes
ext
ract
ed (m
3/ha
)
Pioneer
Small trees
Potential
Secondary
Primary
ITTO plots at Wasap, Madang Province, March1995
Integration
Data sources
Training
Outputs
Reports/Reviews– Inventory, area and planning systems– Review of inventory data– Approaches to net harvestable area assessment– Incorporating community issues in forest planning– Alternative inventory methods for strategic forest planning
Remeasurement of 20 permanent sample plotsRevision of data entry systemAnalysis of alternative harvesting regimes using the PINFORM model
Recommendations
One percent sample requirement: not justifiedClear linkage between inventory and industry planning or operational control Information feedback from operational inventories and harvested volumes to strategic planningRegular (5 year) review of allowable cutsLinkage between forest inventory and log utilisation standards Post harvest inventory Adequate resourcing of inventory and development of planning skills in all sectors of the forest industry
Future activities
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