NAWDEX DRY RUN - German Aerospace CenterOct 05, 2015  · NAWDEX DRY RUN Mon 05 October 2015 1) Discussion of flight on 04 October ... 4) Forecast for upcoming days. Discussion of

NAWDEX DRY RUNMon 05 October 20151) Discussion of flight on 04 October2) Synoptic situation on 05 October3) Discussion of flights on 05 October4) Forecast for upcoming days

Discussion of flight on 04 October 2015 – 00 UTC

Geopotential at 300 hPa MSLP

WCB starting on 4 October, 00 UTCPV@320 K on 4 October, 00 UTC

Discussion of flight on 04 October 2015 – 00 UTC

MSLP

trajectories starting from flighttrack @ 950 hPa

trajectories starting from flighttrack @ 950 hPa

FC IT: 02-10-2015 FC IT: 04-10-2015

Geopotential at 300 hPa MSLP

SYNOPTIC SITUATION on 05 October 2015 – 00 UTC

Geopotential at 300 hPa MSLP

DISCUSSION OF 1st FLIGHT – 05 October

PV@320 K on 5 October, 00 UTC WCB starting on 4 October, 00 UTC

FC IT: 02-10-2015 FC IT: 02-10-2015

PV@320 K on 5 October, 00 UTC

FC IT: 05-10-2015 FC IT: 04-10-2015

WCB starting on 4 October, 00 UTC

DISCUSSION OF 1st FLIGHT – 05 October

PV@320 K on 5 October, 00 UTC WCB starting on 4 October, 00 UTC

FC IT: 05-10-2015 FC IT: 04-10-2015

trajectories starting from flighttrack @ 600 hPa

trajectories starting from flighttrack @ 500 hPa

FC IT: 05-10-2015 FC IT: 05-10-2015

DISCUSSION OF 2nd FLIGHT – 05 October

PV@320 K on 5 October, 12 UTC WCB starting on 4 October, 00 UTC

Forecast for upcoming days

Tuesday, 00 UTC

Forecast for upcoming days

Wednesday, 00 UTC

Forecast for upcoming days

Thursday, 00 UTC

Forecast for upcoming days

Thursday, 00 UTC

WCB inflow on Wednesday WCB outflow on Friday

Thursday 1 Oct web conf : discussion around the low near Ireland on Mon 5 Oct

SLP + 200-hPa wind speed

Arpege Météo-France forecastThur00+72H : Sun 00H UTC

Low

ECMWF and Arpege forecastsECMWF Thur00+48H : Sat00 ECMWF Thur00+72H : Sun00 ECMWF Thur00+96H : Mon00

Arpege Thur00+48H : Sat00 Arpege Thur00+72H : Sun00 Arpege Thur00+96H : Mon00

SLP + 850-hPa wind speed

SLP + 200-hPa wind speed

Ensemble forecasts : EPS SLP 990 Hpa isoline for different members

T+72H (Sat3 00UTC) T+96H (Mon4 00UTC)

Ensemble forecasts: comparison EPS ECMWF / MFSLP 990HPa isoline : same day : Sun4 +00UTC ECMWF : T+72H (51 runs) Météo-France : T+78H (35 runs)

Ensemble forecasts: comparison EPS ECMWF / MFSLP 990HPa isoline : same day : Mon5 +00UTC ECMWF : T+96H (51 runs) Météo-France : T+102H (35 runs)

Ensemble forecasts: comparison EPS ECMWF / MFSLP 990HPa isoline : same day : Mon5 +00UTC ECMWF : T+96H (51 runs) ECMWF : T+24H (351 runs)

Thurs Arpege Forecast T+60 UTC (saturday 12 UTC) Analysis Saturday 12 UTC

Theta anomalies on 1.5 PVU

More detailed features using Arpege forecasts : Relative Vorticity at 850 hPa and winds at 850hPa

Arpege Thur00+72H : Sun00 Arpege Thur00+96H : Mon00Arpege Thur00+72H : Sun00

More detailed features using Arpege forecasts : on Monday 00 UTC

Relative vorticity + winds 850hPa Cloud cover

From Sun 00UTC T+18H : looking at Sunday 018 UTC

Relative vorticity + winds 850hPa Cloud cover