NAVIGATING VUCA IN BUILDING A SMARTER PLANET Smarter Business Requires Smarter Information.
Post on 16-Dec-2015
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…Using Smart Systems
Information
Knowledge
Wisdom
Completely ReactiveNon Scientific Non Collaborative
Mostly ReactiveBasic Scientific Low Collaboration
Partially ProactiveHigh Scientific Initial Collaboration
Being Smart Just Isn’t Good Enough Anymore
VUCA
Knowledge
Wisdom
Highly ProactiveQuantum Scientific Real Time Collaboration
What the VUCA is that?
Originated from US Army War College in late 1990’s
VolatilityUncertaintyComplexityAmbiguity Information
Knowledge
Wisdom
“VUCA Meter”
LOW HIGH
Why the VUCA is it Happening?
ENVIRONMENTALChanging and less predictable climatic patterns
Scarcity of resources (oil, water, arable land, etc)
SOCIALMore tightly interconnected systems (economics, political, social)
Evolution to rapid exponential effects vs. slow or moderate linear effects
Being Smart Has Been Good Enough….So Far
Information
Knowledge
Wisdom
External Factors
LOW HIGH
Current
SmartModels
Policy & Regulatory
Economic & Business
• Resource Abundance• Environmental Consistency• Independent & Sovereign• Moderate & Linear Evolutionary Advancements
Being Smart Has Been Good Enough….So Far
We’re pretty smart at deploying innovations to benefit humanity. Just keep doing what has worked in the past…..right?
Time
Ad
op
tion
Current Business & Policy Models are sufficient to determine appropriate strategies and resources to drive innovations
Lack of Complexity of External Factors =
Little interference with ease of use
Confidence in extraction of value
New Realities in External Factors
Information
Knowledge
Wisdom
LOW HIGH
CurrentSmartModels
Policy & Regulatory
Economic & Business
• Resource Constrained• Environmental Change• Interconnected & Global• Rapid & Exponential Evolutionary Required Objectives
External Factors
Simply being smart doesn’t produce the benefits it used to
Why Isn’t Smart Good Enough?
Time
Ad
op
tion
Current Business & Policy Models assuming low to moderate VUCA contextual environment
Complex External Factors =
Significant interference with ease of use
Obstacles to extraction of value
Ultimately, Stalling at the Gap
VUCA
Knowledge
Wisdom
Highly ProactiveQuantum Scientific Real Time Collaboration
Population Growth to 9 Billion +Climate ChangeResource ScarcityEconomic Disparity
Victim or Victor
Leaders have historically achieved victory by being smart with smart tools. Those same leaders using the same smart behavior are becoming victims in the evolving new reality.
How about a little game of…….
TRUTH OR DARE?
Truth or Dare
VICTIM Be honest……tell the truth
Leadership Behavior Yearly underperformance & missed expectations Only sees and addresses the most immediate problems Sees only one issue or solution, misses the range and combinations Unaware of the cause and effect between multiple issues Sees realization of success only through narrow focus Scalability is dependent on repeatability of the same behavior and set of tools that have worked in the past Commits to a path and pushes through, regardless of indicators of potential failure Uncomfortable or unwilling to absorb and act on complex situations or “intuitive based” strategies
Truth or Dare
VICTORDo you dare……be a great leader
Leadership Behavior Achieving “top-line” growth and consistent positive EBITDA in turbulent times Continual assessment of risks and improvement of “sensing” processes Has a range of operational options that are flexible, yet achieve a single strategic outcome Sees both the forest AND the trees, knows the difference and can identify the most appropriate set of paths Sees issues in the context of their entire environmental relationship Identifies core issue determinants and understands their relevance to achieving the strategic goal Trusts that sensing future issues can improve today’s ability to compete
Tools That Support Innovative Leadership
Behavioral Modeling and Mapping Processes
PRIMARY DRIVI FACTOR
S
PRIMARY DRIVING MARKET FACTORS
PRIMARY DRIVING
AGRONOMIC FACTORS
Region 2 – Wine Grape
AgronomicSpecific agronomic attribute affecting influencing factor
Region 2 – Wine Grape
AgronomicSpecific agronomic attribute affecting influencing factor
Region 3 – Wine Grape
AgronomicSpecific agronomic attribute affecting influencing factor
Region 2 – Wine Grape
AgronomicSpecific agronomic attribute affecting influencing factor
Region 1
crop Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Wine Grapes
Region 1
crop Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Wine Grapes
Region 1
crop Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Wine Grapes
Region 1
crop Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Wine Grapes
Market Behavioral Modeling and Mapping
Supporting PrinciplesCorporate Foresight ModelingCrowd SourcingCollective IntelligenceLifecycle Modeling Innovation Adoption Models
Knowledge to Wisdom
Knowledge is Smart InformationTraditional market analysis driven by demographic based data
Wisdom is Smarter InformationTraditional market analysis driven by demographic based data AND Integrated configuration of market’s external factorsDegree of influence from integrated set of external factorsRelational map of vested stakeholders and change indicatorsGuidance system for optimal market engagement
Tools That Support Innovative Leadership
Behavioral Modeling and Mapping Processes
PRIMARY DRIVI FACTOR
S
PRIMARY DRIVING MARKET FACTORS
PRIMARY DRIVING
AGRONOMIC FACTORS
Methodology and tools for market analysis
Quantifying the configuration and degree of influence from external market factors on a market population
Establishing a market behavioral profile
Tools That Support Innovative Leadership
Behavioral Modeling and Mapping Processes
Region 2 – Wine Grape
AgronomicThis is the Lodi wine region
If you can read this – you are awesome.Nam Myo Ho Renge Kyo
Region 2 – Wine Grape
AgronomicThis is the Lodi wine region
If you can read this – you are awesome.Nam Myo Ho Renge Kyo
Region 2 – Wine Grape
AgronomicThis is the Lodi wine region
If you can read this – you are awesome.Nam Myo Ho Renge Kyo
Region 2 – Wine Grape
AgronomicThis is the Lodi wine region
If you can read this – you are awesome.Nam Myo Ho Renge Kyo
Region 1
crop Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Wine Grapes
Region 1
crop Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Wine Grapes
Region 1
crop Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Wine Grapes
Region 1
crop Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Wine Grapes
Profile mapping with primary behavioral influencing factors
Profile specific vested stakeholder relational map
Market based ecosystem relational map
Profile and issue specific optimal market engagement guidance
They Said What?
Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat – Sun Tzu
A man should look for what is, and not for what he thinks should be – Albert Einstein
He who innovates will have for his enemies all those who are well off under the existing order and only lukewarm supporters in those who might be better off in the new – Niccolo Machiavelli, The Prince
Acknowledgements
Imagery:Google Images
To the men, the myths and the legends that I’ve worked with in refining these models and processes. You all know who you are. Onward and upward!
Contact:www.linkedin.com/in/dsypnieski/
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