Natural Archives: Changing Climates · Powerpoint Presentation: Walter Orr Roberts Memorial Lecture; Natural Archives: changing climates Author: Raymond S. Bradley Created Date: 4/1/2008

Natural Archives:Changing Climates

Ray BradleyUniversity of Massachusetts

Earliest instrumental records on land

1850

1880

1850

1850

18001850

19001950

1957

1750

1880

Source: http://www.knmi.nl/~koek/cliwoc.htm

Climatological Database for the World’s Oceans (CLIWOC): observations from 1750-1850

1998

Sources: Climatic Research Unit, UK & NOAA

Tree rings Corals

Varvedsediments

IceHistoricaldocuments

Speleothems

…And this our life, exempt from public haunt,Finds tongues in trees, books in the running brooks

Sermons in stones, and good in everything….

As You Like ItWm Shakespeare, II. I. 12

Source: NOAA WDC-A for Paleoclimatology

Tree Ring Archives

©

Source: Briffa et al., 2001

Source: Briffa et al., 2003

1960

Hendrik Avercamp ~1608

Explosive Volcanic effects on tree growth at highlatitudes: few eruptions in 20th century

Source: Briffa et al., 1999

Major impacts in 1453, 1601, 1641-43, 1816-18…

Source: Stahle et al., 2000 Source: Cole et al., 2002

20th century La Niñas:

Cocolitzli…a rat-bornehantavirus-likehaemorrhagicfever…

Source: Acuna-Soto et al., 2002

Cocolitzli…a rat-bornehantavirus-likehaemorrhagicfever…

A sample of Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun with rainfall report

Drought Index

1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 19500.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Flood Index

1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 19500.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1586-1589

1575-1578

Source: Ge et al., 2004

Banded CoralsBanded Corals

Source: NOAA WDC-A for Paleoclimatology

Coral from Malindi, Kenya Source: R. Dunbar & J. Cole: pers. comm.

U-V X-ray

Modern coral δ18O anomalies (red)Sea surface temperatures (black)

Source: Cobb et al., 2003

Source: Urban et al., 2001

Maiana coral record

Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru

Source: L. Thompson OSU Byrd Center

Source: Bradley et al., 2003

Source: Bradley et al., 2003

Weaker East Asianmonsoon?

Warmer easternEquatorial Pacific?

PERU CHINA

SpeleothemsSpeleothems

Drier

Wetter

A A speleothemspeleothem record of the southwestern record of the southwestern monsoon from southern Omanmonsoon from southern Oman

Source: S. Burns et al., 2002

Source: Wikipedia

Source: Wikipedia

Source: Wikipedia

“Several researchers…have suggested that Iceland experienced a mild climate around the time of the Norse settlement(~A.D. 870-930), and in the 11th and 12th centuries. There is no concrete evidence for this, as there are no contemporarydocuments for this time….there is no firm foundation of data for a so-called “Climatic Optimum” during the early years of Iceland’s history”

A. Ogilvie: Acta Archeologica, 1990

Murray Lake

Murray Lake

Effects of Higher Temperatures on Arctic Lakes

Increased duration of ice-free period More melting/runoff—greater sediment flux Higher nutrient flux

RESULT: More biological productivity/diversity (diatoms) Thicker annual sediment layers (varves) Increase in median grain size

2D Graph 1

Years A.D.

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

g cm-2

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Lower Murray Lake, northern Ellesmere Island (81.5°N) Annual sediment flux* (g cm-2) since ~A.D.1030:

1944-68

*25 year running meanSource: Patridge, 2005

~1100-1320(1100-1125 & 1250-1280)

?

Warmersummers

Murray Lake

Murray LakeBache Peninsula

Source: Schlederman, 1996

2D Graph 1

Years A.D.

1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

g cm-2

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

Lower Murray Lake, northern Ellesmere Island (81.5°N) Annual sediment flux* (g cm-2) since ~A.D.1030:

1944-68

*25 year running meanSource: Patridge, 2005

~1100-1320(1100-1125 & 1250-1280)

Norse remains at ~79°N

?

Warmersummers

Inglefield 1856

1) Natural archives unlock a worldthat humans experienced…..…..but no longer remember

2) Natural archives record bothforcings and system

responses3) They enable us to put contemporary changes in ahistorical perspective…

Jean-Francois Champollion (1790-1832)

“Precis du systemehieroglyphique desanciens Egyptiens”(1824)

The RosettaStone:An essentialarchive thatunlocked ourculturalhistory…

The Rosetta Stone is a pricelessrecord of cultural history…

Natural archives arepriceless records of ourenvironmental history…

Loss of paleoclimatic informationthrough deteriorating coral archives…

The 1997-98 Global Coral Bleaching Episode

-- UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre

“Without doubt this is the most geographicallywidespread bleaching event ever recorded…”

…Over 100 coral species bleached, including bleachingand partial death of large Porites colonies that werecenturies old. This bleaching appeared to be a combinedeffect of raised temperatures, exacerbated in the centralGBR by massive flows of rainwater in January…”

The 1997-1998 Global Coral BleachingEvent: Australian consequences

“Aerial surveys of 654 reefs show that extensivebleaching occurred along theentire length of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) fromElford Reef (17oS), to Heron Island (23oS)….

--Dr. Clive Wilkinson, AIMS, Queensland

1929

2000

1929

KilimanjaroIcecap today

Kilimanjaro IceCap in 2025?

Chacaltaya, Bolivia, ~5240m

Old growth trees:

Natural archivesof the earth’sclimatic andenvironmentalhistory

Giant Sequoia

Loss of Tree Ring archivesdue to clearcutting andforest fires

Source: Karen Wattenmaker/NOAA Web Site

Fires in Indonesia: July-Dec 1997

1975 1986

Clearcutting in Rondonia, Brazil

Tree rings Corals

Varvedsediments

IceHistoricaldocuments

Speleothems

“If men could learn from history, what lessonsit might teach us. But passion and party blindour eyes, and the light which experience givesis a lantern on the stern, which shines only onthe waves behind us…”

Coleridge, 1831.

www.paleoclimate.org

For accurate information about climate change & global warming, see:

http://www.realclimate.org

CobaQuintana RooMexico

Source: Hodell et al., 1995

Lake Chichancanab, Yucatan, Mexico

Source: Hodell et al., 1995

16761600≤1500

Source: Fye et al., 2003

Source: Cook et al., 2004