National Security Strategic Mineral LFAR
Post on 04-Apr-2018
234 Views
Preview:
Transcript
7/31/2019 National Security Strategic Mineral LFAR
1/15
1
International Market And Political Issues Likely To
Diminish U.S. Ability To Obtain Strategic Minerals
INTL 650-01
Instructor: Kristan
Wheaton
October 10, 2012
7/31/2019 National Security Strategic Mineral LFAR
2/15
2
About This Document
The national security team composed this joint LFAR from remote locations beginning
on the evening of October 8, 2012 and completing on October 10, 2012. The research in
this LFAR was conducted over the prior week (October 2 through October 7) through
Google News searches and use of the Strategic Minerals blog. No source is more than 12
months old.
The national security team was tasked with answering the following question: what
implications will international issues related to critical minerals have on U.S. national
security in the next three to five years? The team seeks to create an all-encompassing
answer to this question, one that draws from multiple sources and regions and which
can be distilled into the most pertinent findings for American foreign policy.
Source reliability was calculated based on the Trust Scale and Web Site Evaluation
Worksheet. Analytic confidence was determined based on the Peterson Table of Analytic
Confidence Assessment.
7/31/2019 National Security Strategic Mineral LFAR
3/15
3
Key Findings
Over the next three to five years, international issues including market and political
conditions are likely to diminish the United States ability to obtain strategic minerals.
It is highly likely that the Chinese government will continue to bring attention to
disputed regions like the Senkaku Islands, the Paracel Islands, and the Spratly
Islands in the next 12 to 24 months.
The South African national miners strike will likely continue to affect the global
supply of minerals.
It is likely the United States will implement more regulations to diminish the
quantity of central African conflict minerals being trafficked into the world
market in the next three to five years.
It is highly unlikely that the United States will exploit the Arctic region to reduce
its dependency on other nations for strategic minerals over the next three to five
years, despite abundant reserves in the region.
7/31/2019 National Security Strategic Mineral LFAR
4/15
4
Table Of Contents
About This Document
Key Findings
International Market And Political Issues Likely To Diminish U.S. Ability ToObtain Strategic Minerals
Subordinate Report 1: Asian Territorial Disputes
Subordinate Report 2: South African Mining Crisis
Subordinate Report 3: DRC Conflict Minerals
Subordinate Report 4: Arctic Resources
Annex A: Sources
Annex B: Methods and Process
7/31/2019 National Security Strategic Mineral LFAR
5/15
5
International Market And Political Issues Likely To
Diminish U.S. Ability To Obtain Strategic Minerals
Executive Summary:
The United States ability to obtain strategic minerals is likely to diminish over the next
three to five years due to international issues, including market and political conditions.
Key international issues include territory disputes around China, the South African
miners strike, attempted American prohibition of the use of conflict minerals, and U.S.
failure to develop long-term plans for resource extraction in the Arctic region.
Discussion:
The current state of global mineral affairs is not conducive for the purchase of strategic
minerals. Issues across the globe, ranging from overt national security conflicts to social
and political problems present a hostile climate for strategic mineral buyers.
Territorial disputes in Asia over several small chains of islands are straining relations in
the region. The Chinese government has made several bold moves over the past 9
months to draw attention to the disputed regions. The regions in question are suspected
to contain valuable resource deposits, and if they are obtained by the Chinese, it would
further consolidate Chinese control over the strategic and rare earth minerals market.
Chinese technology industries are already suspected of depleting the nations vast rare
earth supplies and may begin importing rare earth metalsas early as 2014.
The use of overt military force in this conflict is highly unlikelyand preliminary political
resolutions have begun. Japanese Prime MinisterYoshihiko Noda called for political
talks to contain economic fallout from the tensions in the South China Sea, echoing the
historic advice of former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping. On October 1, the Chinese
delegation to the ASEAN announced it would offer 3 billion yuan (USD 474 million) for
a cooperative maritime fund for member nations. For more information, see
Supplemental Report 1.
The nationwide mine strike in South Africa has caused a price increase in the strategic
mineral platinum. Since the strikes began, theprice of platinum has risen 3 percent. OnSeptember 14, the price of platinum rose byUSD 42.60 to USD 1,649.60 per ounce. The
strikes in South Africas gold mineshalted 39 percentof its gold output.
Mine strikes in South Africa continue to affect the global mining industry. South Africa
produces75 percent of the worlds platinum and is the fifth-largest gold producer. As
many as80,000 miners(16 percent of South Africas total mining workforce) are
http://www.csl.army.mil/usacsl/publications/IP7_11.pdfhttp://www.csl.army.mil/usacsl/publications/IP7_11.pdfhttp://www.csl.army.mil/usacsl/publications/IP7_11.pdfhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/12/business/global/china-a-rare-earths-giant-set-to-start-importing-the-elements.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/12/business/global/china-a-rare-earths-giant-set-to-start-importing-the-elements.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/12/business/global/china-a-rare-earths-giant-set-to-start-importing-the-elements.htmlhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/23/us-china-japan-confrontation-idUSBRE88M0F220120923http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/23/us-china-japan-confrontation-idUSBRE88M0F220120923http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/23/us-china-japan-confrontation-idUSBRE88M0F220120923http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/china-unveils-474m-maritime-cooperation-fund-with-asean-amid-territorial-disputes/2012/10/05/fa751c82-0edb-11e2-ba6c-07bd866eb71a_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/china-unveils-474m-maritime-cooperation-fund-with-asean-amid-territorial-disputes/2012/10/05/fa751c82-0edb-11e2-ba6c-07bd866eb71a_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/china-unveils-474m-maritime-cooperation-fund-with-asean-amid-territorial-disputes/2012/10/05/fa751c82-0edb-11e2-ba6c-07bd866eb71a_story.htmlhttp://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-09-12/platinum-prices-jump-as-mine-dispute-spreadshttp://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-09-12/platinum-prices-jump-as-mine-dispute-spreadshttp://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-09-12/platinum-prices-jump-as-mine-dispute-spreadshttp://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-09-12/platinum-prices-jump-as-mine-dispute-spreadshttp://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-09-12/platinum-prices-jump-as-mine-dispute-spreadshttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-25/anglogold-operations-halted-in-south-africa-as-strikes-spreadhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-25/anglogold-operations-halted-in-south-africa-as-strikes-spreadhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-25/anglogold-operations-halted-in-south-africa-as-strikes-spreadhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/south-african-union-accuses-top-platinum-producer-of-racism-as-tension-deepens-with-miners/2012/10/08/79b9a6de-1157-11e2-9a39-1f5a7f6fe945_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/south-african-union-accuses-top-platinum-producer-of-racism-as-tension-deepens-with-miners/2012/10/08/79b9a6de-1157-11e2-9a39-1f5a7f6fe945_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/south-african-union-accuses-top-platinum-producer-of-racism-as-tension-deepens-with-miners/2012/10/08/79b9a6de-1157-11e2-9a39-1f5a7f6fe945_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/south-african-union-accuses-top-platinum-producer-of-racism-as-tension-deepens-with-miners/2012/10/08/79b9a6de-1157-11e2-9a39-1f5a7f6fe945_story.htmlhttp://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/10/08/south-africa-union-accuses-platinum-producer-racism/http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/10/08/south-africa-union-accuses-platinum-producer-racism/http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/10/08/south-africa-union-accuses-platinum-producer-racism/http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/south-african-union-accuses-top-platinum-producer-of-racism-as-tension-deepens-with-miners/2012/10/08/79b9a6de-1157-11e2-9a39-1f5a7f6fe945_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/south-african-union-accuses-top-platinum-producer-of-racism-as-tension-deepens-with-miners/2012/10/08/79b9a6de-1157-11e2-9a39-1f5a7f6fe945_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/south-african-union-accuses-top-platinum-producer-of-racism-as-tension-deepens-with-miners/2012/10/08/79b9a6de-1157-11e2-9a39-1f5a7f6fe945_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/south-african-union-accuses-top-platinum-producer-of-racism-as-tension-deepens-with-miners/2012/10/08/79b9a6de-1157-11e2-9a39-1f5a7f6fe945_story.htmlhttp://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/10/08/south-africa-union-accuses-platinum-producer-racism/http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/south-african-union-accuses-top-platinum-producer-of-racism-as-tension-deepens-with-miners/2012/10/08/79b9a6de-1157-11e2-9a39-1f5a7f6fe945_story.htmlhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-25/anglogold-operations-halted-in-south-africa-as-strikes-spreadhttp://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-09-12/platinum-prices-jump-as-mine-dispute-spreadshttp://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-09-12/platinum-prices-jump-as-mine-dispute-spreadshttp://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-09-12/platinum-prices-jump-as-mine-dispute-spreadshttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/china-unveils-474m-maritime-cooperation-fund-with-asean-amid-territorial-disputes/2012/10/05/fa751c82-0edb-11e2-ba6c-07bd866eb71a_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/business/china-unveils-474m-maritime-cooperation-fund-with-asean-amid-territorial-disputes/2012/10/05/fa751c82-0edb-11e2-ba6c-07bd866eb71a_story.htmlhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/23/us-china-japan-confrontation-idUSBRE88M0F220120923http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/23/us-china-japan-confrontation-idUSBRE88M0F220120923http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/12/business/global/china-a-rare-earths-giant-set-to-start-importing-the-elements.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/12/business/global/china-a-rare-earths-giant-set-to-start-importing-the-elements.htmlhttp://www.csl.army.mil/usacsl/publications/IP7_11.pdfhttp://www.csl.army.mil/usacsl/publications/IP7_11.pdf7/31/2019 National Security Strategic Mineral LFAR
6/15
6
striking. South Africas mining industry has been in turmoil since August, when
mineworkers at a Lonmin mine staged a strike that led to police shooting and killing 34
workers in Marikana. The unrest is spreading to other mines. For more information, see
Supplemental Report 2.
Fighters stagingrebellionsin the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are being fundedby conflict minerals. Armed groups control half of the production of these minerals,
generating a profit ofUSD 225 millionannually. Almost everyelectronic consumer
productworldwide uses some form of conflict minerals. Since 2008, the United States
has provided $950 million USD inassistanceto the DRC, including military education
and training in conflict mitigation.
M23 militants are running mining camps in the DRC that mine conflict minerals.
Participants in theAfrican summit agreed to dispatch a neutral force in an attempt to
drive the M23 militants out, but analysts believe this will have little effect on the
militants. In an attempt to stop using conflict minerals, including tantalum, tin, gold,
and tungsten, theSecurity and Exchange Commissionissued a rule that all companies
must report use of these minerals, so as to attempt to force companies to find their
minerals elsewhere. TheUnited States Chamber of Commerce recommends a more
effective regulation by implementing managerial accountability, hiring market based
experts, and enhancing cost-benefit analysis. For further information, see
Supplemental Report 3.
Historic meltingof the polar ice caps has led to an increase of available resources in the
Arctic Circle including rare earth minerals, oil, and gas--experts estimate Arcticresources holdtrillions of dollarsin potential profits. Many countries are rushing to
establish a diplomatic presence in the Arctic, most notably China which has made plans
for up to500 diplomatic personnelin Iceland alone. Others, such as Canada, are
expandingArctic territories.
Despite the increasing Arctic activity, the U.S. is falling behind. Byfailing to accedeto
the Law of the Sea Treaty, the U.S. has failed to lead the international community in the
Arctic region. Chinese companies, many withgovernment ties, haveaggressively
pursuedArctic contracts and resources. Although other Arctic nations such as Russia
are continuing recent militarization campaignsin the Arctic region, the U.S. has failed toprepare, leaving ports and the U.S. Coast Guard grossly unready and vulnerable. For
further information seeSupplemental Report 4.
http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/19/safrica-mines-idINL5E8KJ2QT20120919http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/19/safrica-mines-idINL5E8KJ2QT20120919http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/19/safrica-mines-idINL5E8KJ2QT20120919http://www.rdmag.com/news/2012/09/blood-diamonds-ore-ge-takes-conflict-mineralshttp://www.rdmag.com/news/2012/09/blood-diamonds-ore-ge-takes-conflict-mineralshttp://www.rdmag.com/news/2012/09/blood-diamonds-ore-ge-takes-conflict-mineralshttp://www.rdmag.com/news/2012/09/blood-diamonds-ore-ge-takes-conflict-mineralshttp://www.rdmag.com/news/2012/09/blood-diamonds-ore-ge-takes-conflict-mineralshttp://www.rdmag.com/news/2012/09/blood-diamonds-ore-ge-takes-conflict-mineralshttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/20/business/use-of-conflict-minerals-gets-more-scrutiny.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/20/business/use-of-conflict-minerals-gets-more-scrutiny.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/20/business/use-of-conflict-minerals-gets-more-scrutiny.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/20/business/use-of-conflict-minerals-gets-more-scrutiny.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0http://www.globalwitness.org/sites/default/files/The_Cost_of_Business_as_Usual.pdfhttp://www.globalwitness.org/sites/default/files/The_Cost_of_Business_as_Usual.pdfhttp://www.globalwitness.org/sites/default/files/The_Cost_of_Business_as_Usual.pdfhttp://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2012/2012-163.htmhttp://www.sec.gov/news/press/2012/2012-163.htmhttp://www.sec.gov/news/press/2012/2012-163.htmhttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttps://docs.google.com/document/d/1BwdJpSaQFqDXm_YKn-MO5Zyl8dQwHfMqV0j9cqaA6Gc/edit#bookmark=id.b3oz7l7474gahttps://docs.google.com/document/d/1BwdJpSaQFqDXm_YKn-MO5Zyl8dQwHfMqV0j9cqaA6Gc/edit#bookmark=id.b3oz7l7474gahttps://docs.google.com/document/d/1BwdJpSaQFqDXm_YKn-MO5Zyl8dQwHfMqV0j9cqaA6Gc/edit#bookmark=id.b3oz7l7474gahttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/arctic-melt-opens-door-big-oils-next-boomhttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/arctic-melt-opens-door-big-oils-next-boomhttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/arctic-melt-opens-door-big-oils-next-boomhttp://rendezvous.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/china-and-the-northern-great-game/http://rendezvous.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/china-and-the-northern-great-game/http://rendezvous.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/china-and-the-northern-great-game/http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/National/Canada+poised+massive+undersea+land+grab+Arctic+Atlantic/7345687/story.htmlhttp://www.montrealgazette.com/news/National/Canada+poised+massive+undersea+land+grab+Arctic+Atlantic/7345687/story.htmlhttp://www.montrealgazette.com/news/National/Canada+poised+massive+undersea+land+grab+Arctic+Atlantic/7345687/story.htmlhttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttps://docs.google.com/document/d/1BwdJpSaQFqDXm_YKn-MO5Zyl8dQwHfMqV0j9cqaA6Gc/edit#bookmark=id.yqzi94vvxoouhttps://docs.google.com/document/d/1BwdJpSaQFqDXm_YKn-MO5Zyl8dQwHfMqV0j9cqaA6Gc/edit#bookmark=id.yqzi94vvxoouhttps://docs.google.com/document/d/1BwdJpSaQFqDXm_YKn-MO5Zyl8dQwHfMqV0j9cqaA6Gc/edit#bookmark=id.yqzi94vvxoouhttps://docs.google.com/document/d/1BwdJpSaQFqDXm_YKn-MO5Zyl8dQwHfMqV0j9cqaA6Gc/edit#bookmark=id.yqzi94vvxoouhttps://docs.google.com/document/d/1BwdJpSaQFqDXm_YKn-MO5Zyl8dQwHfMqV0j9cqaA6Gc/edit#bookmark=id.yqzi94vvxoouhttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.montrealgazette.com/news/National/Canada+poised+massive+undersea+land+grab+Arctic+Atlantic/7345687/story.htmlhttp://www.montrealgazette.com/news/National/Canada+poised+massive+undersea+land+grab+Arctic+Atlantic/7345687/story.htmlhttp://rendezvous.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/china-and-the-northern-great-game/http://rendezvous.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/05/china-and-the-northern-great-game/http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/arctic-melt-opens-door-big-oils-next-boomhttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/arctic-melt-opens-door-big-oils-next-boomhttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttps://docs.google.com/document/d/1BwdJpSaQFqDXm_YKn-MO5Zyl8dQwHfMqV0j9cqaA6Gc/edit#bookmark=id.b3oz7l7474gahttps://docs.google.com/document/d/1BwdJpSaQFqDXm_YKn-MO5Zyl8dQwHfMqV0j9cqaA6Gc/edit#bookmark=id.b3oz7l7474gahttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://www.sec.gov/news/press/2012/2012-163.htmhttp://www.sec.gov/news/press/2012/2012-163.htmhttp://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://www.globalwitness.org/sites/default/files/The_Cost_of_Business_as_Usual.pdfhttp://www.globalwitness.org/sites/default/files/The_Cost_of_Business_as_Usual.pdfhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/20/business/use-of-conflict-minerals-gets-more-scrutiny.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/20/business/use-of-conflict-minerals-gets-more-scrutiny.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/20/business/use-of-conflict-minerals-gets-more-scrutiny.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0http://www.rdmag.com/news/2012/09/blood-diamonds-ore-ge-takes-conflict-mineralshttp://www.rdmag.com/news/2012/09/blood-diamonds-ore-ge-takes-conflict-mineralshttp://www.rdmag.com/news/2012/09/blood-diamonds-ore-ge-takes-conflict-mineralshttp://www.rdmag.com/news/2012/09/blood-diamonds-ore-ge-takes-conflict-mineralshttp://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/19/safrica-mines-idINL5E8KJ2QT20120919http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/09/19/safrica-mines-idINL5E8KJ2QT201209197/31/2019 National Security Strategic Mineral LFAR
7/15
7
Number of Asian Territorial Disputes Likely To Increase;
Strategic Minerals Driving Conflict
Executive Summary:
It is highly likely that the Chinese government will continue to bring attention to
disputed regions like the Senkaku Islands, the Paracel Islands, and the Spratly Islands in
the next 12 to 24 months. These islands likely contain valuable strategic mineral
resources as well as offshore oil and gas deposits. The number of territorial disputes in
the region of the South and East China Seas and their volatility are both likely to
increase.
Discussion:
In September, political tensions came
to a crescendoas China protested
Japans continued occupation of the
Senkaku Islands, 100 miles north of
Taiwan. Experts believe the islands
contain valuable strategic mineral
deposits. The uproar is one event in a
series of ongoing disputes involving the
PRC. In July, the Peoples Liberation
Army announcedit would send a
garrison of soldiersto the ParacelIslands, a small island chain claimed by
Vietnam.
The Philippines announced on October 1, 2012 that it would send 800 Marines to the
Spratly Islandsto further guard territorial claims there. The Spratly Islands are near
active oil and natural gas fields in the South China Sea.
In response to the unrest, Beijing offered 3 billion yuan (USD 474 million) to the ASEAN
for a maritime cooperation fund. China plans for this fund to cool tensions with the
Philippines and Vietnam, yet to date has not established the purpose of the fund.However, this illustrates Beijings desire to resolve the conflict diplomatically.
Analytical Confidence:
Analytic confidence for this assessment is high. The analyst did not utilize structured
methods of analysis for this report. Source reliability is high and the sources
http://www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp:/www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp://www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp:/www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp://www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp:/www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp://www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp:/www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/24/world/asia/china-sends-troops-to-disputed-islands.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/24/world/asia/china-sends-troops-to-disputed-islands.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/24/world/asia/china-sends-troops-to-disputed-islands.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/24/world/asia/china-sends-troops-to-disputed-islands.html?_r=0http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012%5C10%5C01%5Cstory_1-10-2012_pg14_2http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012%5C10%5C01%5Cstory_1-10-2012_pg14_2http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012%5C10%5C01%5Cstory_1-10-2012_pg14_2http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012%5C10%5C01%5Cstory_1-10-2012_pg14_2http://www.startribune.com/world/172812031.html?refer=yhttp://www.startribune.com/world/172812031.html?refer=yhttp://www.startribune.com/world/172812031.html?refer=yhttp://www.startribune.com/world/172812031.html?refer=yhttp://www.startribune.com/world/172812031.html?refer=yhttp://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012%5C10%5C01%5Cstory_1-10-2012_pg14_2http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012%5C10%5C01%5Cstory_1-10-2012_pg14_2http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2012%5C10%5C01%5Cstory_1-10-2012_pg14_2http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/24/world/asia/china-sends-troops-to-disputed-islands.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/24/world/asia/china-sends-troops-to-disputed-islands.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/24/world/asia/china-sends-troops-to-disputed-islands.html?_r=0http://www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp:/www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp://www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp:/www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp://www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-chinahttp:/www.npr.org/2012/09/26/161812054/tokyos-governor-stokes-the-island-feud-with-china7/31/2019 National Security Strategic Mineral LFAR
8/15
7/31/2019 National Security Strategic Mineral LFAR
9/15
9
accounted forapproximately 32 percent of the companys total production during the
first half of2012.
Gold Fields, thefourth-largest gold producer in the world, is also trying to end strikes at
several mines. Itlost about 32,000 ounces of output, because of strikes at its KDC and
Beatrix sites. It is currently offering awage increaseto its lowest paid workers in anattempt to curb the strike.
The strikes are also testing President Jacob Zuma's leadership. The president is under
fire for failing to address and contain the workers' protests and wage increase demands.
Analytic Confidence:
Analytic confidence for this assessment ismedium. Source reliability ranges from
medium to high. Sources can be corroborated. The analyst is of medium expertise and
worked alone without the aid of structured analytic methods. The subject is moderately
complex. Time available for the task was adequate.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444592404578030263428622912.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444592404578030263428622912.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444592404578030263428622912.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444592404578030263428622912.htmlhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2012/09/27/south-african-mine-strikes-to-have-limited-impact-on-gold-prices-analysts/2/http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2012/09/27/south-african-mine-strikes-to-have-limited-impact-on-gold-prices-analysts/2/http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2012/09/27/south-african-mine-strikes-to-have-limited-impact-on-gold-prices-analysts/2/http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-25/anglogold-operations-halted-in-south-africa-as-strikes-spreadhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-25/anglogold-operations-halted-in-south-africa-as-strikes-spreadhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-25/anglogold-operations-halted-in-south-africa-as-strikes-spreadhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-10/s-dot-african-gold-mines-propose-wage-changes-after-union-talkshttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-10/s-dot-african-gold-mines-propose-wage-changes-after-union-talkshttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-10/s-dot-african-gold-mines-propose-wage-changes-after-union-talkshttp://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/oct/03/miners-strikes-south-africa-ironhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/oct/03/miners-strikes-south-africa-ironhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/oct/03/miners-strikes-south-africa-ironhttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-10/s-dot-african-gold-mines-propose-wage-changes-after-union-talkshttp://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-09-25/anglogold-operations-halted-in-south-africa-as-strikes-spreadhttp://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconews/2012/09/27/south-african-mine-strikes-to-have-limited-impact-on-gold-prices-analysts/2/http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444592404578030263428622912.htmlhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444592404578030263428622912.html7/31/2019 National Security Strategic Mineral LFAR
10/15
10
U.S. Likely To Implement Enhanced Regulations to Stop
the Trafficking of Central African Conflict Minerals In Next
3 To 5 Years
Executive Summary:
It is likely the United States will implement more rules to diminish the use of conflict
minerals in the next three to five years. This is likely due to the inclusion of the M23
militants to an international mineral blacklist, the expanded mission of the Tanzanian
military, the already-implemented SEC rules, and U.S. Chamber of Commerce
recommendations for further prevention of the use conflict minerals.
Discussion:
Since conflict broke out in April, 200,000M23 militantshave moved to the eastern partof the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), roughly 57,000 of whom have crossed into
neighboring nations. The M23 militia captured border towns along the DRCand
Ugandan border, subsequently paralyzing mineral trade and forcing DRC troops to
retreat into Uganda. Workers are being held at gunpoint, and forced to work for little to
no pay. Experts estimate that 5.4 million people in the region have died from war-
related causes since 1998.
At the conclusion of the African summit
in Uganda, participants agreed to
dispatch a neutral force to drive the M23militants out of the DRC. Countries
excluded in the military force include the
DRC, Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda.
Tanzania is the only state that has agreed
to send soldiers for the mission.
However, analysts predict the mission
will have limited success due to the
overwhelming number of militants.
The Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) has already taken steps to prevent
companies in the United States from using conflict minerals in their products. The
Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Actrequires companies to
disclose their use of conflict minerals sourced in the DCR or neighboring countries.
These minerals include tantalum, tin, gold, and tungsten. However, the Dodd-Frankact
does not target thesupply chain used to transport these minerals, and does little to
actually stop the violence in central Africa.
http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/16/tech/gaming-gadgets/congo-blood-phones-report/index.htmlhttp://www.cnn.com/2012/08/16/tech/gaming-gadgets/congo-blood-phones-report/index.htmlhttp://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2012/2012-163.htmhttp://www.sec.gov/news/press/2012/2012-163.htmhttp://www.sec.gov/news/press/2012/2012-163.htmhttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://blogs.wsj.com/corruption-currents/2012/09/14/conflict-minerals-rules-could-reverberate-through-supply-chain/http://blogs.wsj.com/corruption-currents/2012/09/14/conflict-minerals-rules-could-reverberate-through-supply-chain/http://blogs.wsj.com/corruption-currents/2012/09/14/conflict-minerals-rules-could-reverberate-through-supply-chain/http://blogs.wsj.com/corruption-currents/2012/09/14/conflict-minerals-rules-could-reverberate-through-supply-chain/http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://www.sec.gov/news/press/2012/2012-163.htmhttp://www.sec.gov/news/press/2012/2012-163.htmhttp://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://www.cnn.com/2012/08/16/tech/gaming-gadgets/congo-blood-phones-report/index.htmlhttp://www.cnn.com/2012/08/16/tech/gaming-gadgets/congo-blood-phones-report/index.htmlhttp://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/africa-relayed/2012/sep/22/congo-question-can-regional-powers-use-force-pacif/7/31/2019 National Security Strategic Mineral LFAR
11/15
11
The United States Chamber of Commercegave the SEC over 50 recommendations to
prevent the use of conflict minerals and threatened legal actionif companies do not take
further action. The Chamber of Commerce recommendations provide an outline for
more effective regulation. These recommendations includemanagerial accountability,
hiring market based expertise, and enhanced cost-benefit analysis.
Analytic Confidence:
The analytic confidence for this assessment ismedium. Source reliability is medium and
some sources were hard to corroborate. The analysts expertise is medium and the
analyst worked alone without the aid of structured analytic methods. The subject is
highly complex and the time available for the task was adequate.
http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://www.enoughproject.org/news/sec-adopts-conflict-minerals-rules-chamber-threatens-lawsuithttp://www.enoughproject.org/news/sec-adopts-conflict-minerals-rules-chamber-threatens-lawsuithttp://www.freeenterprise.com/breaking-brokenhttp://www.freeenterprise.com/breaking-brokenhttp://www.freeenterprise.com/breaking-brokenhttp://www.freeenterprise.com/breaking-brokenhttp://www.freeenterprise.com/breaking-brokenhttp://www.freeenterprise.com/breaking-brokenhttp://www.freeenterprise.com/breaking-brokenhttp://www.enoughproject.org/news/sec-adopts-conflict-minerals-rules-chamber-threatens-lawsuithttp://www.enoughproject.org/news/sec-adopts-conflict-minerals-rules-chamber-threatens-lawsuithttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-mineralshttp://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/244559-broken-sec-pushes-unworkable-rules-on-conflict-minerals7/31/2019 National Security Strategic Mineral LFAR
12/15
12
U.S. Highly Unlikely To Exploit Arctic To Reduce Strategic
Mineral Dependency, Despite Wealth Of Resources
Executive Summary:
It is highly unlikely that the U.S. will exploit the Arctic region to reduce its dependency
on other nations for strategic minerals over the next three to five years, despite
abundant reserves in the region. Key factors include gross unpreparedness, a failure to
lead in the international community, and loss of the initiative to China.
Discussion:
The U.S. has failed to prepare for resource
exploitation in the Arctic. Lacking Alaskan
ports capable of supporting heavy traffic, the
U.S. has not preparedfor an increase in
Arctic activity. With only one icebreaker
vessel, the U.S. Coast Guard is neither
equipped nor readyto respond to events in
the Arctic. In contrast, Russia has continued
a militarization campaign, moving military
assets to the region and also building bigger,
better icebreakers tosupplementits existing
fleet. Other Arctic border nations have
developednational security strategiesto include north of the Arctic Circle.
Despite involvement in theArctic Council, the U.S. still refuses to accede totheLaw of
the Sea Treaty, which would establish comprehensive, international rules to govern the
oceans. The far northern Arctic has no exact boundaries, and nations have begun
hagglingover borders. U.S. officialshave called the Arctic region a new frontier in our
foreign policy, yet by continuing to resist the Law of the Sea Treaty, the U.S. hasmissed
the chanceto establish a leadership role in the international community.
Despite lackingArctic Councilstatus, China has seized the initiative in the region by
aggressively pursuingresources and contracts. Its abilityto outspendall competitorsprovides it withextra leveragein cash-poor areas such as Greenland and Iceland.
Chinese companies, many with government ties, have beeninvesting heavilyin the
Arctic. Althoughexperts believethat Chinese companies are not acting for foreign policy
goals but economic ones, China already controlsnearly allof the worlds rare earths
production and this would further cement US dependence upon it.
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/new-icebreaker-russian-arctic-18-09http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/new-icebreaker-russian-arctic-18-09http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/new-icebreaker-russian-arctic-18-09http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/http://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/http://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.unlawoftheseatreaty.org/http://www.unlawoftheseatreaty.org/http://www.unlawoftheseatreaty.org/http://www.unlawoftheseatreaty.org/http://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.mining.com/china-to-exploit-global-warning-for-arctic-mineral-riches-66744/http://www.mining.com/china-to-exploit-global-warning-for-arctic-mineral-riches-66744/http://www.mining.com/china-to-exploit-global-warning-for-arctic-mineral-riches-66744/http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/http://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/http://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/04/pictures/120403-china-rare-earth-mining-pictures/http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/04/pictures/120403-china-rare-earth-mining-pictures/http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/04/pictures/120403-china-rare-earth-mining-pictures/http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/04/pictures/120403-china-rare-earth-mining-pictures/http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2012/04/pictures/120403-china-rare-earth-mining-pictures/http://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49086436/ns/world_news-the_new_york_times/#.UHGLc03A825http://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/http://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.mining.com/china-to-exploit-global-warning-for-arctic-mineral-riches-66744/http://www.mining.com/china-to-exploit-global-warning-for-arctic-mineral-riches-66744/http://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.thespec.com/news/world/article/804071--race-is-on-for-arctic-treasureshttp://www.unlawoftheseatreaty.org/http://www.unlawoftheseatreaty.org/http://www.unlawoftheseatreaty.org/http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/http://www.arctic-council.org/index.php/en/http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/new-icebreaker-russian-arctic-18-09http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/new-icebreaker-russian-arctic-18-09http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.eurasiareview.com/03102012-restructuring-arctic-stability-and-global-security-analysis/http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctichttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/121003/us-far-behind-race-the-arctic7/31/2019 National Security Strategic Mineral LFAR
13/15
7/31/2019 National Security Strategic Mineral LFAR
14/15
14
Annex A: Sources
Cover Image
Supplemental Report 1 Image
Supplemental Report 2 ImageSupplemental Report 3 Image
Supplemental Report 4 Image
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/55/Rareearthoxides.jpg/220px-Rareearthoxides.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/55/Rareearthoxides.jpg/220px-Rareearthoxides.jpghttp://www.npr.org/news/graphics/2012/09/map-island-dispute-624.gifhttp://www.npr.org/news/graphics/2012/09/map-island-dispute-624.gifhttp://static3.businessinsider.com/image/504f973c69bedd9732000009/south-africa-mine-strikes.jpghttp://static3.businessinsider.com/image/504f973c69bedd9732000009/south-africa-mine-strikes.jpghttp://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductors/materials/cracking-down-on-conflict-mineralshttp://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductors/materials/cracking-down-on-conflict-mineralshttp://texasgeography.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/19arctic-map-popup.jpg?w=468http://texasgeography.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/19arctic-map-popup.jpg?w=468http://texasgeography.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/19arctic-map-popup.jpg?w=468http://spectrum.ieee.org/semiconductors/materials/cracking-down-on-conflict-mineralshttp://static3.businessinsider.com/image/504f973c69bedd9732000009/south-africa-mine-strikes.jpghttp://www.npr.org/news/graphics/2012/09/map-island-dispute-624.gifhttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/55/Rareearthoxides.jpg/220px-Rareearthoxides.jpg7/31/2019 National Security Strategic Mineral LFAR
15/15
15
Annex B: Methods And Processes
The analysts worked independently to produce four topic-specific SFARs over a period
of eight days. They utilized Google News searches and the Strategic Minerals blog to find
sources, corroborate these sources, and to determine their level of reliability. Analystsworked without the use of structured analytic methods. Once the supplemental reports
were complete, the analysts collaborated using Google Docs and Google Hangouts to
produce an LFAR document over a 48-hour period.
The collaborative technology was highly conducive to answering the overall question,
but the analysts experienced acute technical difficulties with Google Hangouts which
made it difficult to continue working smoothly. The analysts had to make modifications
to the initial plan by meeting after class to work collaboratively on the LFAR document.
top related