Medium-term prospects for agricultural markets 2004 - 2011 Update for EU-25 1 European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General.
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Medium-term prospects Medium-term prospects for agricultural markets for agricultural markets
2004 - 20112004 - 2011
Update Update for EU-25for EU-25
1European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
• Analytical approach
– Methodology
– Main assumptions
Structure of the presentation
Introduction
• Medium-term prospects for the EU-25
– Cereals
– Oilseeds
– Meats and eggs
– Milk and main dairy products
Main results
2European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
Methodological approach
• DG AGRI market projections carried out using a recursive dynamic partial equilibrium model and a comparative static model (ESIM)
• Model output: balance sheets for main commodities, market prices
• Detailed results for
– Old (EU-15)
– New (EU-N10) Member States
for main commodities/variables
Type of models
3
Results
European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
Methodological approach
• Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture maintained constant
• Favourable, though moderate world agricultural market outlook
• Return to modest economic and population growth
• $/euro exchange rate stable at 1.1 over the medium-term
• By 2011 direct payments are assumed to be 90% decoupled (milk 100 %, arable crops 93 %, beef 78 %, sheep 73 %)
Main assumptions
4European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
Results for the crops
• Favourable outlook for cereals markets
• Only moderately increasing domestic use due to
– less expansive growth of livestock sector
– gain in feeding efficiency in new Member States
• Transport costs separate the maize markets in the EU
– increasing use of maize for feed
– increasing exports of maize
• Loss of competitiveness of barley as feed grain and moderately increasing public barley stock
• Developments depend on world grain markets and currency environment
5
European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
Broadly balanced cereal market over the medium-term
Production and consumption, 1995 - 2011 (mio t)
6European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Feed use
Non-feed use
Production
EU-15 EU-25
Positive medium-term outlook stabilises cereal markets
Cereal trade and stocks, 1995 - 2011 (mio t)
7European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Private stocks
Public stocks
Exports
Imports
EU-15 EU-25
Cereal markets : limited build up in cereal stocks
Total public stocks, 1995 - 2011 (mio t)
8European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
wheat barley rye maize
coarse grain exports
EU-15 EU-25
Good medium-term perspectives on soft wheat markets
Soft wheat production, domestic use and trade, 1995 - 2011 (mio t)
9European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
EU-15 EU-25
production
non-feed use
feed useexports
imports
Barley: decline of competitiveness
Barley production, domestic use, trade and public stocks, 1995 - 2011 (mio t)
10European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
feed use
non-feed use
production
exports
imports
public stocks
EU-15 EU-25
Maize: segmented markets, increasing use and exports
Maize production, domestic use, and trade 1995 - 2011 (mio t)
11European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
production
feed use
non-feed use
importsexports
EU-15 EU-25
Rye: returning to stable market conditions
Rye production, domestic use, trade and public stocks 1995 - 2011 (mio t)
12European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
production
non-feed use
feed use
public stocks
exports
imports
EU-15 EU-25
Positive medium-term perspectives for the oilseed markets
Market developments for the oilseed sector 1995 - 2011
13European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Domestic use
Production
EU-15 EU-25
Results for the meat and dairy sector
• Favourable outlook for the meat sector
– Return to more normal situation after market disruptions due to animal diseases (2nd BSE crisis, FMD, avian flu)
– EU-25 beef consumption higher than production in 2003 for the first time in 20 years (and throughout the forecast period)
– Pork and poultry production to keep growing over the medium term, with increased trade flows between old and new Member States
• Improvement in EU dairy markets
– Milk production in EU-25 to increase slightly in line with quota increases
– EU-25 butter and SMP market equilibrium to gradually improve, with decreasing production and stocks
– Cheese production in the EU-25 to keep its sustained growth
14
European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
EU beef demand to exceed production over the medium-term
EU Production, Consumption, Trade and Stocks (mio t)
15European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Pro
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0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
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Tra
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Production
Exports
ImportsEnding stocks
EU-15 EU-25EU-12
Consumption
EU pig meat sector to continue to expand over the medium-term
EU Production, Consumption and Trade (mio t)
16European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
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Production
Consumption
Exports Imports
EU-15 EU-25EU-12
EU poultry production to recover after avian flu in the Netherlands
EU Production, Consumption and Trade (mio t)
17European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
0
3
6
9
12
15
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Pro
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Tra
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ProductionConsumption
Exports
Imports
EU-15 EU-25EU-12
EU sheep/goat meat sector only slightly affected by enlargement
EU Production, Consumption and Trade (mio t)
18European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Pro
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Production
Consumption
Imports
EU-15 EU-25EU-12
Exports
Milk quotas to constrain EU milk production while growing milk yields reduce dairy cow herd
EU Milk Production, Deliveries to dairies, Dairy Cows
19European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Mil
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Milk Production
Dairy cow herd
Milk Deliveries
EU-12 EU-15 EU-25
EU butter balance to improve over the medium-term
EU Production, Consumption, Trade and Stocks
20European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Pro
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0,6
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Consumption
Production
Stocks
Exports
Imports
EU-15 EU-25EU-12
EU cheese market keeps its steady growth over the medium term
EU Production, Consumption and Trade
21European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
9,0
10,0
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1,6
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Tra
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Consumption
Production
Exports
Imports
EU-15 EU-25EU-12
EU Skimmed Milk Powder (SMP) market to shrink over the medium term
EU Production, Consumption, Trade and Stocks
22European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Pro
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Consumption
Production
Stocks
Exports
Imports
EU-15 EU-25EU-12
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