Medical Course of Action Tool Basics of using M-COAT.
Post on 27-Mar-2015
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Medical Course of Action Tool
Basics of using M-COAT
2
Agenda
• Introduction
• Agenda
• Learning Objectives
• Problem Statement
• Casualty Estimation Methods
• Medical Course of Action Tool
• Conclusion
3
Learning Objectives
• To introduce the fundamental principles of casualty estimation and their effect on CHS planning.
• To teach the basics of using the Medical Course of Action Tool.
4
Problem Statement• There is no Army approved automated tool
for conducting casualty estimation and CHS course of action planning for division and below operations– Kuhn Study / JCS Guide 3161 - Corps level
casualty estimation, can drill down to Division– FM 101-10-1 vol 2 - Division and above– ARI’s Commander’s Battle Staff Handbook -
Battalion level casualty estimation– Medical Analysis Tool (MAT)
• Corps and above Course of Action tool • Does NOT do Casualty Estimation
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Casualty Estimation for 1003V(US/Coalition Forces)
3981
1665
3605 8400
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
EstimatedNumber ofCasualties
Actual Number ofCasualties During"Shock and Awe"
TBC DNBI • Used numerous tools:– Medical Analysis Tool
– CJSC 3161, “Casualty Planner”
– US AMEDD DNBI Data
– FM 8-55
– Dupey Attrition Model -1% and 3%
– MCOAT (Medical Course of Action Tool)
– ACE (Army Casualty Estimate)
• 34 days (19 Mar – 20 April)
• “Shock and Awe” approx 1% for TBCs and 4% for DNBI
Source: BG Weightman AUSA Presentation 2004
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Casualty Estimation Methods• FM 101-10-1 Volume 2• OPLOG Planner• G1/G4 Battle Book• Logistics Estimation Worksheet• JCS Guide 3161• Dice• Agree to what the Commander says
• Modified Dupuy Method
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Background• M-COAT was originally developed in
Force Structure and Analysis at Fort Sam Houston, TX in 1998
• Confusion on whether it is a casualty estimation tool or medical workload tool – it is a medical workload tool
• Available on AKO 70B Toolkit (https://www.us.army.mil/suite/folder/540490).
• It is NOT AMEDD approved!!!!
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AKO Folder – 70B Toolkit
https://www.us.army.mil/suite/folder/540490
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M-COAT Overview• Based on COL Trevor
Dupuy’s casualty estimation method from Attrition (Nova Pub. 1995)
• Conventional casualty estimation method only
• Intended to serve as TACTICAL level Course of Action Tool
• Casualty Estimation is a critical Battle Staff Task– Medical Requirements– Personnel
Replacements
• Not intended to serve as a Force Structure or Programming tool!
A Low Cost, Low Risk, Near Term Solution
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M-COAT• Five Modules
– Casualty Estimation– Patient Flow- RTD and Evac Losses– Workload
• Evacuation Requirement and Capability• Operating Room Req. and Cap. • Hospital Bed Req. and Cap.
– Medical Supply– Basis of Allocation Rules
• Excel Spreadsheet Based
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M-COAT Casualty Estimation (con’t)
• Nine Factors that affect WIA rates:– Population at risk (PAR)
– Terrain (17 variables)
– Weather (12 variables)
– Posture (8 variables)*
– Strength (17 variables)
* Denotes areas that are modified from Dupuy’s original formula
– Opposition (31 variables)*
– Surprise (4 variables)
– Sophistication (15 variables)*
– Operational Form (5 variables)*
258,019,200 combinations x PAR
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M-COAT Casualty Estimation(con’t)
• Three Factors that affect DNBI– Population At Risk– Battlefield Location (5 variables)– Geographic Location (36 variables)
• Based on Force Structure and Analysis’ DNBI rates
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M-COAT Modules
• Patient Flow- Derived from TAA05 patient flow
• Workload - Uses FM 8-55 evacuation planning factors
• Class VIII consumption- Medical Resupply Sets, FST supplies, and Blood
• Basis of Allocation rules (MRI and MF2K)
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A Graphic ComparisonOf Various Casualty Estimation Methods
Casualty Estimate (Standard Error of the Estimate)Based on 13 Battles (1940-1991)
+1566%-1566% G1/G4 Battle Book
+1416%-1416% FM 101-10-1
+30%-30% M-COAT (Modified Dupuy)
+42%-42% Dupuy
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Medical Course of Action Tool
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Conventional vs. Operations Other Than War
M-COAT Conventional OOTW
Posture Offensive Recon - Screen
Opposition Significant Advantage
Overwhelming Advantage
Surprise Minor Substantial
Pattern of Operation
Disrupted Front Recon
Examples of the different settings that COULD be used
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Conventional vs. Operations Other Than War
M-COAT Conventional OOTW
Total Battle Casualties
189 65
WIA 161 55
KIA 28 10
Examples of the different settings that COULD be used
Example – Constant: 5k Soldiers, Urban, Dry Sunshine, No Sophistication AdvantageVary: Posture, Opposition, Surprise and Pattern of Operation
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Medical Course of Action Tool
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Airborne Operations
• Estimates the additional number of casualties that suffer injury from the jump
• Airborne casualties are in addition to conventional casualties
• Influences:– Day vs. Night (night has higher casualty rate)
– Equipment weight (greater weight increases casualties)
– Drop Zone Conditions (harder surface increase casualties)
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Creditable Casualty Range
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Conclusion
• One of several tools available for use by medical planners, it is NOT the only / best / preferred way
• Routinely updated and improved based on user feedback, tell me how to make it more useful
• Do not hesitate to call or email and ask questions
• Bruce.shahbaz@us.army.mil
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