MAP D-PHASE COPS Workshop, April 10, 2006 Mathias Rotach Chair MD-SC.

MAP D-PHASE

COPS Workshop, April 10, 2006

Mathias RotachChair MD-SC

Overview

Context & ‘history’ Organisation Overview over activities Collaboration

MAP History

Preparation Phase

Experimental Phase, 1999 SOP

Analysis Phase

Demonstration Phase

Forecast Demonstration Project

MAP History

Preparation Phase

Experimental Phase, 1999 SOP

Analysis Phase

Demonstration Phase

MAP D-PHASE

MAP D-PHASE

MAP: first WWRP RDP D-PHASE: 2nd WWRP FDP Focus

--> heavy precipitation--> hydrology--> high-resolution numerical modelling

Demonstration of ability to better understand, model and forecast strong precipitation events and related

hydrological processes from end to end…

… due to MAP

Impact of Alps on August 2005 floods

Without Alps: Opr. COSMO-LEPS orography

COSMO-LEPS 10 RMs (weighted)

Without Alps: Opr. COSMO-LEPS orography

COSMO-LEPS 10 RMs (weighted)

Without Alps: Opr. COSMO-LEPS orography

COSMO-LEPS 10 RMs (weighted)

Without Alps: Opr. COSMO-LEPS orography

COSMO-LEPS 10 RMs (weighted)

Without Alps: Opr. COSMO-LEPS orography

MAP D-PHASE

D-PHASE:

Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of heavy

precipitation Events in the Alpine region

MAP D-PHASE

October 2005: endorsement by WWRP

Int. Steering Committee --> Steinacker/Dorninger, Staudinger (A), Rotach, Schär (CH), Volkert, Wulfmeyer (D), Bouttier, Richard (F), Buzzi, Frustaci,

Ranzi (I), Mylne (UK)

1st MD-SC meeting, 13/14 March 2006 D-PHASE ‘office’: --> Marco Arpagaus, project coordinator --> marco.arpagaus@meteoswiss.ch

Implementation Plan

MAP D-PHASE working groups

WG-DI: Data interface --> chair: A. Montani, ARPA-SIM

WG-HEU: Hydrology and End users --> co-chairs: R. Ranzi, U Brescia, C. Hegg, WSL

WG-VER: verficiation--> chair: M. Dorninger, U Vienna

WG-DP: Data policy--> chair M. Rotach, MeteoSwiss

End-to-end forecasting system

Atmospheric Models

aLMo2

COSMO-LEPS

Hydrological Models

Lago Maggiore

Glarus

Liguria

Iller, Lech, Isar

EmiliaRomagna

‘End users’

Implementation Plan

MD-SC approved the basic assumptions … all data, alerts, and feedbacks are verified / evaluated all data are visualised all alerts are visualised general rules for information flow

… and their consequences common data interface (DI) common data visualisation platform (DVP) common warning and feedback platform (WFP) in general: individual implementation

International Collaboration

common data interface (DI) common data visualisation platform (DVP)

--> joint with COPS--> ‘Demonstration period’: June - November 2007

common warning and feedback platform (WFP) --> in collaboration with Meteorisk

ETReC07

1st MAP D-PHASE meeting

November 6- 8 2006 Vienna local Organiser: M. Dorninger / R. Steinacker

Atmospheric modelingHydrological modelinghigh-resolution probabilistic simulationnowcastingVerification approaches Previous studies from ‘D-PHASE catchments’