Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2007
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8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2007
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Manpower
EmploymentOutlook SurveyUnited States
A Manpower Research Report
Q1
20
07
8/9/2019 Manpower Employment Outlook Survey: United States - Q1, 2007
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Contents
United States Employment Outlook 1Regional ComparisonsSector Comparisons
Global Employment Outlook 13International Comparisons Americas
International Comparisons Asia Pacific
International Comparisons EMEA
About the Survey 20
About Manpower 21
Q1/0
7Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
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More than 14,000 interviewshave been conducted withemployers across theUnited States to measureanticipated employmenttrends between Januaryand March 2007. All
participants were asked,How do you anticipatetotal employment at yourlocation to change in thethree months to the endof March 2007 ascompared to the current
quarter?
Among the U.S. employers surveyed, 23% foresee an
increase in hiring activity, and 11% expect a decline instaff levels during the first quarter of 2007. Sixty percent
anticipate no change in the hiring pace, while 6% are
undecided about their January March hiring plans.
For more than two years, U.S. employers have
consistently reported steady hiring plans. Although the
first quarter job forecast is similar to last quarter and last
year at this time, a subtle downward shift has emerged.
While it is too early to note if this is a trend, this marks
two consecutive quarters of more cautious hiring plans.
Please note that throughout this report, the figure used
in all graphs is the Net Employment Outlook. This
figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers
anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting
from this the percentage of employers that expect to
see a decrease in employment at their location in the
next quarter.
United States Employment Outlook
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Net Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Increase Decrease No Change Dont KnowNet Employment
Outlook
Seasonally
Adjusted
% % % % % %
1stQuarter2006 23 10 61 6 13 20
2ndQuarter2006 30 6 58 6 24 21
3rdQuarter2006 31 6 57 6 25 21
4thQuarter2006 28 8 58 6 20 20
1st Quarter 2007 23 11 60 6 12 19
The results of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey in the United States include Puerto Rico.
1
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
The Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Wholesale/Retail
Trade and Services sectors have all reported consistently
healthy hiring expectations for eight or more consecutive
quarters, and January to March of 2007 is no exception.
Employers remain confident and foresee little change in
the hiring pace compared to the fourth quarter. Hiring
is expected to improve slightly in the Education and
Public Administration sectors, and Mining employers
foresee a more notable, albeit still modest, improvement
in the employment landscape.
The seasonally adjusted survey results show that in four
of the 10 industry sectors surveyed, employers expect
weaker hiring activity in the first three months of 2007
versus the final quarter of 2006. Durable Goods
Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities and
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate employers report a slightdecline in the anticipated hiring pace. A more modest
dip in the hiring forecast is apparent in the Construction
sector, where employer optimism has steadily faded for
four consecutive quarters.
The quarter-over-quarter hiring outlook for the four U.S.
regions is consistent in the Northeast, Midwest and South.
Employers in the West are slightly less optimistic than
they were in the final months of 2006. Compared with last
year at this time, employers in the South and West have
slightly weaker hiring plans. Job prospects in the Midwest
are expected to be about the same, while a brighter
jobs picture is predicted for the Northeast.
Employer optimism is most apparent in the South, while
companies in the Midwest are the most reserved about
their hiring plans in the new year.
A year-over-year comparison reveals a range of
employer confidence trends. Employers are slightly
more inclined to increase payrolls in the Education,
Services and Public Administration sectors. However,
Mining employers are most optimistic, with more
aggressive hiring plans and the strongest overall
outlook among the 10 industry sectors surveyed. Job
market stability is expected in the Non-Durable Goods
Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities and
Wholesale/Retail Trade sectors. Construction employers
are significantly less optimistic about hiring than they
were at the beginning of 2006. Employers in
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and Durable Goods
Manufacturing also expect to add staff at a slower pace
than they did one year ago.
Net Employment
Outlook
Seasonally
AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know
% % % %%%
Construction 18 16 61 25 18
Education 19 4 71 15 176
Finance,Insurance & RealEstate 21 6 67 6 15 15
Manufacturing Durables 26 12 56 6 14 18ManufacturingNon-Durables 22 8 64 6 1814
Mining 32 6 59 3 2926
PublicAdministration 21 6 66 15 187
Services 26 7 60 7 19 23
Transportation & PublicUtilities 22 8 63 7 14 17
Wholesale & RetailTrade 23 17 54 6 6 22
Attheoverallnationallevel,themarginoferroronthedatais +/0.8%.
Net Employment SeasonallyIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know
Outlook Adjusted
% % % %
Midwest
Northeast 23 10 60 7 13 19
25 9 60 6 16 22
20 12 63 5 8 17
South
West 28 12 52 8 16 21
% %
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Regional ComparisonsMidwest +8 (17)%
Among employers surveyed in the Midwest, 20% predict
improved employment activity and 12% foresee areduction in payrolls for the first three months of 2007.
The result is a Net Employment Outlook of+8%.
Seasonally adjusted results reveal that confidence
among Midwest employers is expected to remain
steady and consistent with levels reported for the last
two years. This is also the fourth straight quarter that
Midwest employers have reported the weakest hiring
intentions among the U.S. regions.
Employers in four industry sectors expect little change
in the hiring pace as they transition into 2007.
This includes the Mining, Wholesale/Retail Trade,
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and Services sectors.
Employers in four of the 10 industry sectors surveyed
are less confident about hiring in the first quarter than
they were from October to December. Those industry
sectors are Construction, Durable and Non-Durable
Goods Manufacturing and Transportation/Public
Utilities. In contrast, employers in Public Administration
foresee a slight upturn in employment activity, and
Education employers are decidedly more confident
about hiring than they were at the end of 2006.
Net Employment
Outlook
Seasonally
AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know
%%%%% %
All Industries 20 12 63 5 8 17
Construction 13 21 62 4 -8 16
Education 216 77 5 14 17
Finance,Insurance & RealEstate 19 5 69 7 14 15
ManufacturingDurables 24 13 59 4 11 15
ManufacturingNon-Durables 20 9 66 5 11 17
Mining 0 0 100 0 70
PublicAdministration 17 8 70 5 9 12
Services 22 7 64 7 15 19
Transportation & PublicUtilities 19 649 8 10 13
Wholesale & RetailTrade 18 19 58 5 -1 20
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07Net Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
The Midwest Region comprises the following states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South
Dakota, Wisconsin.
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
Northeast +13 (19)%
In the Northeast, 23% of employers intend to increase
the hiring pace, while 10% expect to decrease staff
levels, which results in a Net Employment Outlook of
+13%. Seasonally adjusted data suggests that thehiring pace in the new year is expected to be healthy,
as it was in the fourth quarter, and slightly improved
from a year ago.
More than half of the 10 industry sectors surveyed in
the Northeast report little change in job prospects from
the fourth quarter of 2006 to first quarter of 2007.
Those sectors include Mining, Durable and Non-Durable
Goods Manufacturing, Transportation/Public Utilities,
Wholesale/Retail Trade and Services. Public
Administration employers report slightly more positive
hiring intentions, and Finance/Insurance/Real Estate
employers foresee more robust staffing activity. The
most notable shift occurs in the Construction sector,
where employers are considerably more optimistic
about hiring gains.
Net Employment
Outlook
Seasonally
AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know
%%%%% %
All Industries 23 10 60 7 13 19Construction 18 15 62 5 3 20
Education 917 68 6 8 8
Finance,Insurance & RealEstate 20 4 70 6 16 18
ManufacturingDurables 27 9 58 6 18 22
ManufacturingNon-Durables 22 10 60 8 12 15
Mining 25 0 75 0 1825
PublicAdministration 9 8 76 7 1 4
Services 23 7 62 8 16 21
Transportation & PublicUtilities 22 639 6 13 15
Wholesale & RetailTrade 26 17 52 5 9 22
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Net Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2530
The Northeast Region comprises the following states: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania,
Rhode Island, Vermont.
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South +16 (22)%
Twenty-five percent of employers surveyed in the South
intend to increase the hiring pace during the first quarter
of 2007, while 9% expect to decrease staff levels, which
adds up to a Net Employment Outlook of+16%. Whenseasonal variations are removed from the data, the
survey results show that employer confidence is edging
down slightly from fourth quarter and one year ago.
However, employers in the South are the most upbeat
about hiring compared with the other U.S. regions.
Among the industry sectors surveyed, there is a three-
way split in a quarter-over-quarter comparison of the
survey results. Employers in three industry sectors
expect a cooler hiring climate, including Construction,
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate and Services. Those in
the Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing,
Transportation/Public Utilities and Public Administration
sectors foresee little change in job prospects, and
Mining, Wholesale/Retail Trade and Education
employers report more promising hiring plans.
Net Employment
Outlook
Seasonally
AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know
%%%%% %
All Industries 25 9 60 6 16 22
Construction 22 10 64 4 12 23
Education 423 66 7 19 22
Finance,Insurance & RealEstate 21 4 67 8 17 16
ManufacturingDurables 29 10 54 7 19 24
ManufacturingNon-Durables 22 6 67 5 16 20
Mining 30 9 57 4 2621
PublicAdministration 25 6 63 6 19 21
Services 28 7 58 7 21 24
Transportation & PublicUtilities 23 656 6 17 20
Wholesale & RetailTrade 25 14 54 7 11 25
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Net Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
The South Region comprises the following states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland,
Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
West +16 (21)%
Twenty-eight percent of employers surveyed in the
West plan to add jobs, while 12% expect to reduce
staff levels. The result is a Net Employment Outlook of
+16%. Seasonally adjusted data reveals that the slowand steady decline of employer confidence in the job
market continues for a third consecutive quarter.
Among the industry sectors surveyed, half report
more subdued hiring expectations for the new year as
compared to fourth quarter of 2006. The five industry
sectors are Construction, Transportation/Public Utilities,
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate, Durable Goods
Manufacturing and Education. Job seekers are likely to
encounter no changes in the Non-Durable Goods
Manufacturing and Wholesale/Retail Trade sectors,
while those looking for work in Public Administration,
Services and Mining can expect to encounter a more
active job scene.
Net Employment
Outlook
Seasonally
AdjustedIncrease Decrease No Change Dont Know
%%%%% %
All Industries 28 12 52 8 16 21
Construction 17 23 53 7 -6 11Education 521 66 8 16 15
Finance,Insurance & RealEstate 26 13 59 2 13 12
ManufacturingDurables 29 13 50 8 16 20
ManufacturingNon-Durables 27 11 54 8 16 20
Mining 50 0 50 0 5350
PublicAdministration 26 2 61 11 24 25
Services 34 8 50 8 26 30
Transportation & PublicUtilities 27 5110 12 17 19
Wholesale & RetailTrade 28 17 46 9 11 23
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Net Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
The West Region comprises the following states: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah,
Washington, Wyoming.
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Sector ComparisonsAmong the 10 industry sectors analyzed, Mining
employers are the most confident about job prospects
for the first quarter of 2007, according to the seasonally
adjusted data. A strong hiring pace is expected in
the Services and Wholesale/Retail Trade sectors.
Although employment activity is positive, employers in
Construction, Education, Finance/Insurance/Real Estate,
Durable and Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing, Public
Administration and Transportation/Public Utilities expect
hiring plans to be somewhat more modest, as compared
with the other sectors.
Construction
Education
Finance, Insurance & Real Estate
Manufacturing Durables
Manufacturing Non-Durables
Mining
Public Administration
Services
Transportation & Public Utilities
Wholesale & Retail Trade
15
18
15
17
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
2629
1518
19
17
23
622
18
14
14
14
18
15
Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted Outlook
2
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
Construction +2 (18)%
According to seasonally adjusted survey results, the
upcoming quarter is likely to bring an ebb to the hiring
pace in the Construction sector. Employer confidence
takes a modest dip from the fourth quarter of 2006 andis significantly lower than it was one year ago.
During the first quarter of 2007, Construction employers
in the South are most optimistic about the employment
landscape, while those in the West express the most
conservative hiring sentiments.
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Net Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
-10
25
-5
0
5
10
15
20
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Net Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
Education +15 (17)%
Education employers are optimistic about the job market
as they look to the first quarter of 2007. According to
seasonally adjusted survey results, hiring conditions are
expected to improve slightly when compared with the
fourth quarter and a year ago at this time.
Hiring plans are most promising in the South, while
employers in the Northeast expect to take a more
cautious approach to hiring than those in the other
three regions.
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0
25
5
10
15
20
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Net Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Net Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
Finance, Insurance &Real Estate+15 (15)%
The January to March period marks the second
consecutive quarter of declining confidence among
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate employers, who revealed
the weakest hiring plans among the 10 industry sectors
surveyed. When seasonal variations are removed from
the data, employers expect the hiring pace to slow
down slightly from the fourth quarter, while the year-
over-year comparison shows a modest downturn in
staffing plans.
For the first quarter of 2007, employers in the Northeast
are most likely to add staff, while those in the West
report the weakest job prospects.
Manufacturing Durable Goods+14 (18)%
According to seasonally adjusted survey results, a
change is predicted for job seekers in the Durable Goods
Manufacturing sector. The hiring pace is expected to
slow, with employer optimism down slightly from the
fourth quarter and one year ago.
Employers in the South report the strongest job
prospects, while those in the Midwest foresee the most
sluggish hiring pace.
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Net Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
-10
35
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2530
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Net Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
Manufacturing Non-Durable Goods+14 (18)%
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturers are unmoved in their
hiring expectations, according to seasonally adjusted
survey data. This marks three consecutive quarters of
identical employer confidence levels. Hiring plans are
on par with those issued in the fourth quarter and last
year at this time.
Regional hiring patterns show that employers in the
South and West expect to offer the most promising job
prospects, while those in the Northeast have the
weakest hiring intentions.
Mining +26 (29)%
For the January to March period, Mining employers
report the strongest hiring plans among the 10 industry
sectors surveyed. Seasonally adjusted data indicates
that employers foresee a healthier hiring pattern than in
the fourth quarter, and significantly more employment
activity than they did in the early months of 2006.
By a wide margin, employers in the West report the
strongest hiring intentions, while those in the Midwest
are more reserved about staffing than any other region.
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-10
30
-5
0
510
15
20
25
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Net Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Net Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
Public Administration +15 (18)%
Employer confidence in the Public Administration sector
continues its steady climb during the first quarter of 2007,
according to seasonally adjusted survey data. The hiring
pace is expected to be up slightly from the previous quarterand one year ago.
Those seeking Public Administration work are likely to find
the most employment activity in the West, while those in
the Northeast are expected to face the most challenges
due to weaker employer confidence levels.
Services +19 (23)%
According to seasonally adjusted survey results,
Services employers plan to maintain a steady hiring
pace during the first three months of 2007. Hiring plans
are identical to those reported last quarter, and slightlyimproved from one year ago.
The strongest hiring activity in the Services sector is
expected in the West, while employers in the Midwest
report the weakest hiring plans.
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
-10
25
-5
0
5
10
15
20
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Net Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
-15
35
-10-505
1015202530
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
Net Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
Transportation &Public Utilities+14 (17)%
On a seasonally adjusted basis, Transportation/PublicUtilities employers report less optimism regarding
employment in the new year. A slight drop in hiring
activity is expected over fourth quarter, although
employment expectations are consistent with those
reported last year at this time.
Among the regions, employers in the South report the
strongest hiring intentions, while those in the Midwest
are least likely to add staff.
Wholesale &Retail Trade +6 (22)%
Wholesale/Retail Trade employers expect the hiring
momentum to remain steady as they enter 2007, according
to seasonally adjusted data. The first quarter employment
outlook is similar to estimates from the fourth quarter and
one year ago. This marks three years of consistently
healthy hiring plans in the Wholesale/Retail Trade sector.
The strongest hiring activity is expected in the South, while
employers in the Midwest are more reserved about their
staffing plans.
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Nearly 50,000 employers have been interviewed across
27 countries and territories to measure anticipatedemployment trends* between January and March 2007.
Employers in all of the 27 countries and territories
Manpower surveyed expect to add to their workforces
in Quarter 1 2007. Of the countries and territories
where year-over-year data is available, 20 of 23 are
reporting stronger hiring expectations compared to
last year at this time. Hiring activity is also expected
to improve in 14 countries and territories compared
to three months ago.
Employment prospects are strongest in Peru,Singapore, India, Argentina (which joined the survey this
quarter) and South Africa. While the weakest hiring
activity is forecast in Italy, Germany and France,
employers in all three of these countries anticipate
improved job prospects compared to Quarter 1 2006.
On a regional basis, employers in the Americas continue
to report positive Net Employment Outlooks, comparableto those reported 12 months ago. Employers in Asia
Pacific are also upbeat about hiring, with those in
Singapore and Japan reporting their most optimistic
Net Employment Outlooks since the establishment of
the survey in these countries.
In the Europe, Middle East &Africa (EMEA) region,
employers in all 13 countries surveyed are reporting
positive hiring activity for Quarter 1 2007. Meanwhile,
employers in Austria, Belgium, Germany, Ireland, the
Netherlands, Spain and Switzerland are reporting theirmost optimistic Quarter 1 Outlooks since the survey
began in these countries.
* Comments in this section are based on seasonally adjusted datawhere available.
Global Employment Outlook
Americas
Asia Pacific
Australia
ChinaHongKong
Japan
India
New Zealand
Singapore
Taiwan
Net Employment Outlook
Net Employment Outlook
Quarter 1 2007
Quarter 1 2007
Quarter 4 2006
Quarter 4 2006
24
%
%
27(28)1
17(24)1
26(27)1
29 (31)1
42
36(33)1
14
18
%
%
24(24)1
18 (25)1
25 (24)1
18 (18)1
39
44(46)1
15
18 (21)1
20(19)1
48
3(18)1
17(19)1
52
Qtr on Qtr Change
Q4 2006 to Q1 2007
Qtr on Qtr Change
Q4 2006 to Q1 2007
-6
-3(-4)1
1(1)1
-1(-3)1
-11(-13)1
-3
8 (13)1
1
6
4(4)1
3(4)1
1(1)1
2(2)1
12
35 (35)1
-7
Yr on Yr Change
Q1 2006 to Q1 2007
Yr on Yr Change
Q1 2006 to Q1 2007
Quarter 1 2006
%
Quarter 1 2006
%
20(20)1
22
12
27
16(16)1
15 (21)1
24(23)1
9 (11)1
2(17)1
17(18)1CostaRica 25 26 1
United States 20 (20)1 12 (19)1 -8 (-1)1 -1 (-1)113 (20)1
Canada
Mexico
Peru
-15 (-3)1
-3(0)1
4
1(1)1 35 Argentina
0(1)1
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
EMEA*
Austria
Belgium
France
Germany
Ireland
Netherlands
Norway
Spain
UK
Italy
Switzerland
Sweden
Net Employment Outlook
Quarter 1 2007Quarter 4 2006
%
11(13)1
9 (9)1
4(2)1
5 (8)1
9 (6)1
8
15 (17)1
12(14)1
4(6)1
7(11)1
11(10)1
2(5)1
%
6(11)1
10(12)1
3(5)1
2(4)1
6(7)1
11
21(23)1
9 (10)1
13(16)1
8 (12)1
12(15)1
1(3)1
Qtr on Qtr Change
Q4 2006 to Q1 2007
-5 (-2)1
1(3)1
-1(3)1
-3(-4)1
-3(1)1
3
6(6)1
-3(-4)1
9 (10)1
1(1)1
1(5)1
-1(-2)1
9 (10)1
2(3)1
3(4)1
6(5)1
3(4)1
9
10(10)1
-2(-1)1
5 (5)1
6(7)1
3(3)1
3(3)1
Yr on Yr Change
Q1 2006 to Q1 2007
*EMEAEurope,MiddleEastandAfrica.
1.NumberinparenthesesistheNetEmploymentOutlookwhenadjustedtoremoveseasonalvariations.
2
Quarter 1 2006
%
-3(1)1
8 (9)1
0(1)1
-4(-1)1
11(13)1
3(3)1
11(11)1
8 (11)1South Africa 26 31 5
2(5)1
9 (12)1
-2(0)1
Asia Pacific31%
EMEA24%
Americas45%
Survey Respondents by Region
Research for the first quarter 2007 Manpower
Employment Outlook Survey involved surveying nearly
50,000 human resources directors and senior hiring
managers from public and private organizationsworldwide. 45% of respondents came from six
countries in the Americas; 31% from eight countries
and territories across Asia Pacific, and 24% from
13 countries in EMEA.
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International Comparisons AmericasOver 22,000 interviews have been conducted across
Argentina, Canada, Costa Rica, Mexico, Peru and theUnited States to measure employment prospects for
Quarter 1 2007. The data shows continued solid
employment prospects across the region with employers
in all six countries indicating healthy hiring plans for the
first three months of the year.
Employers in Argentina were surveyed for the first time
this quarter and reported one of the most optimistic Net
Employment Outlooks globally. In Mexico, employers
reported their most optimistic Quarter 1 Net Employment
Outlook since the survey began there in Quarter 3 2002.
Employers in Canada and the U.S. are anticipating a
continued healthy hiring pace similar to Quarter 1 2006.
Meanwhile, employers in Peru are considerably more
optimistic than their regional counterparts about adding
to their payrolls in the next three months.
ArgentinajoinedthesurveyinQ12007.
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook
Argentina50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Net Employment OutlookNet Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
Canada
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
CostaRicajoinedthesurveyinQ32006.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook
PerujoinedthesurveyinQ22006.
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook
Costa Rica50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Net Employment OutlookNet Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
Mexico
Peru50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Net Employment OutlookNet Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
USA
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Japan
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Net Employment OutlookNet Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
New ZealandjoinedthesurveyinQ22004.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Net Employment OutlookNet Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
TaiwanjoinedthesurveyinQ22005.
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook
New Zealand
Singapore Taiwan
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
International Comparisons EMEANearly 12,000 interviews have been conducted with
employers across 13 EMEA countries to measureanticipated employment trends for Quarter 1 2007.
Employers in the EMEA region are anticipating varying
degrees of positive hiring activity for the next three months,
but all intend to add to their existing workforces. South
African employers are reporting the strongest hiring
expectations in the EMEA region, while confidence is
stronger in 11 of the 12 European countries surveyed
compared to Quarter 1 2006. Notably, employers in
Austria, Belgium, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, Spain
and Switzerland reported their most optimistic Quarter 1
Outlooks on record. In addition, Swiss employers are
reporting their strongest hiring intentions since the
survey began there in Quarter 3 2005. Similarly, Net
Employment Outlooks also have improved considerably
in Austria and Ireland compared to Quarter 1 2006.
The weakest hiring activity in the region is forecast for
Italy, but encouragingly, employers there reported their
most optimistic Outlook for the first three months of the
year since 2004. In Germany, employers reported, for
the first time since the establishment of the survey,
consecutive positive Net Employment Outlooks.
Meanwhile, the Quarter 1 Outlook from Norwegian
employers is the weakest in two years.
Ireland Italy50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook
Austria Belgium
France Germany
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Manpower Employment Outlook Survey United States
About the SurveyThe Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted
quarterly to measure employers intentions to increase or
decrease the number of employees in their workforces during
the next quarter. The survey has been running for more than40 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of
employment activity in the world. Various factors underpin the
success of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey:
Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area
of focus.
Projective:The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the
most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the
world, asking employers to forecast employment over the
next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on
retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past.
Focused: For more than four decades, the survey has derivedall of its information from a single question.
Independent:The survey is conducted with a representative
sample of employers from throughout the countries in which it
is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from
Manpowers customer base.
Robust:The survey is based on interviews with nearly
50,000 public and private employers across 27 countries and
territories to measure anticipated employment trends each
quarter.This sample allows for analysis to be performed across
specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information.
MethodologyThe Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted
using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest
standards in market research. The research team for the
27 countries and territories where the survey is currently
conducted includes Manpowers Market Intelligence team;
the Organization Research and Analysis Division of Right
Management Consultants an independent operating division
of Manpower Inc.; NOP World, Grupo IDM and DATUM
Research. The survey has been structured to be representative
of each national economy. The margin of error for all national,
regional and global data is not greater than +/- 4.3%.
In the United States, the national survey is conducted by
Manpowers North American Market Intelligence Team and
includes 14,000 employers. With this number of interviews,
the margin of error for the United States survey is +/- 0.8%.
Survey QuestionAll employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked
the same question, How do you anticipate total employment
at your location to change in the three months to the end of
March 2007 as compared to the current quarter?
Net Employment OutlookThroughout this report, we use the term Net Employment
Outlook. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of
employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and
subtracting from this the percentage of employers that expect to
see a decrease in employment at their location in the next
quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment
Outlook.
Seasonal AdjustmentSeasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for
Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany,
Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands,
New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden,
United Kingdom and the United States to provide additional
insight into the survey data. These adjustments make it
possible to review the data without the employment fluctuations
that normally occur at the same time each year, thus providing
a clearer picture of the data over time. Manpower intends to
add seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in
the future, as more historical data is compiled.
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History of the Survey1962 1st generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
Survey launched in the United States and Canada.
1966 Manpowers UK operation launches the equivalent of
the United States survey, naming the report the QuarterlySurvey of Employment Prospects. The survey adopts
the same forward-looking research format as the United
States survey and is the first of its kind in Europe.
1976 2nd generation of Manpowers Employment Outlook
Survey launched in the United States and Canada.
Research methodology is updated to evolve with
advancements in the field of market research.
2002 Manpower UKs Quarterly Survey of Employment
Prospects is updated to adopt an enhanced research
methodology. Manpowers operations in Mexico and
Ireland launch the survey in their respective countries.
2003 3rd generation of the Manpower Employment Outlook
Survey is launched, expanding the program to a total
18 countries and territories worldwide: Australia,
Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong
Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands,
Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom
and United States.
2004 Manpower operations in New Zealand launch the
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
2005 Manpower operations in China, India, Switzerland and
Taiwan launch the Manpower Employment Outlook
Survey.
2006 Manpower operations in Costa Rica, Peru and South
Africa joined the survey program. Surveys in Australia,
Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland,
Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore,
Spain and Sweden add seasonally adjusted data in the
third quarter.
2007 Manpower operations in Argentina launch the Manpower
Employment Outlook Survey. The survey in New Zealand
adds seasonally adjusted data in the first quarter.
About Manpower Inc.Manpower Inc. (NYSE: MAN) is a world leader in the
employment services industry; creating and delivering services
that enable its clients to win in the changing world of work.
The $16 billion company offers employers a range of servicesfor the entire employment and business cycle including
permanent, temporary and contract recruitment; employee
assessment and selection; training; outplacement;
outsourcing and consulting. Manpowers worldwide network
of 4,400 offices in 73 countries and territories enables the
company to meet the needs of its 400,000 clients per year,
including small and medium size enterprises in all industry
sectors, as well as the worlds largest multinational corporations.
The focus of Manpowers work is on raising productivity
through improved quality, efficiency and cost-reduction across
their total workforce, enabling clients to concentrate on their
core business activities. Manpower Inc. operates under fivebrands: Manpower, Manpower Professional, Elan, Jefferson
Wells and Right Management. More information on Manpower
Inc. is available at www.manpower.com.
About Manpower USAIn the United States, Manpower offers businesses a range
of HR services, in addition to providing administrative,
industrial and contact center personnel. Under the
Manpower Professional brand, the company placescontract professionals on assignment in areas such as
information technology, scientific, f inance, engineering and
telecommunications. More information about Manpowers
US operation can be found at www.us.manpower.com.
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Manpower Inc., 5301 N. Ironwood Rd., Milwaukee, WI 53217, USA
Tel: 414 961 1000
www.us.manpower.com
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