Managing when the Outcome is Highly Uncertain Innovation Workout (practice for your Innovation Project) Planning to learn when uncertainty is high Assessing.
Post on 22-Dec-2015
215 Views
Preview:
Transcript
Managing when the Outcome is Highly
Uncertain
Innovation Workout (practice for your Innovation Project)
Planning to learn when uncertainty is high
Assessing your project as it unfolds
Future Fruit (Real Options Practicum)
Innovation WorkoutPreparation for your Innovation Presentation
Assessing the Potential of an Innovation
Quiz, Consumption Chain Analyze and Feature Map an Innovation
Pharmaceutical Innovation
The Blockbuster drugs ($1 billion or more in annual sales) of the past 15 years have all been “lifestyle” drugs
Mood adjusters (Prozac)
Performance enhancers (like Viagra)
Recreational (MDMA, a.k.a. Ecstasy)
Your Task Design (i.e., identify the major features of) a new Blockbuster
Drug by
Quizzing your teammates
Use a Mind Map to find the main feature sets of a hypothetical blockbuster drug
Constructing your consumers (a.k.a. teammates’) Consumption Chain
Identifying the discriminators and energizers
(Feature-Attribute Map) for the significant steps of the Consumption Chain
What to Present Mind Map of Feature Sets for the Drug
Consumption Chain with key steps containing discriminators and energizers
Tell how you will manage each discriminator or energizer to encourage consumers to move to the next step of the Consumption Chain
Identify existing ‘substitutes’ for your new drug
Identify other potential barriers to entry for the drug
Managing Under Uncertainty
Adaptive Execution
Information Elicitation
Scenario Planning
Management’s Challenge
Capitalize on new opportunities Guide the group so they can:
Discover new Competences Discover new Customer Solutions
Avoid forcing staff into the conceptual straightjackets that conventional project management can create.
The Problem It’s a Metrics Problem It is (devilishly) difficult to find good measures of progress
For projects With a high assumption-to-knowledge ratio
Options: Lagging indicators: actions already taken Current indicators: where things are going today Leading indicators: where you are going
Lagging Indicators Current Indicators Leading Indicators
Current Assets Market share Trend extrapolations (profit, market share)
Past profits Operating ratios Micro-microeconomic forecasts of firm statistics
Other accouting numbers Current profit Backlog, advanced orders
What Companies Really Do
Most companies choose lagging indicators Why? Because they are easy to collect
Just get them from the existing accounting systems
Leading indicators are the hardest to find Nobody tells you the future
Leading indicators arise from two sources: Future commitments of firm and customers (e.g., order
backlog) Forecasts of accounting statistics
The Bottom Line
No. It’s not Profits. The bottom line in innovation is to end up
with a new business model capable of giving you competitive advantage i.e., new product / innovation, new model, re-
segmented market, etc.
Adaptive Execution allows you to monitor obstacles, and progress in the right strategic direction
Strategy (Business) Drivers
What’s your Strategy Driver? What makes your proposed business perform? What makes your proposed innovation a commercial success?
These are spelled out explicitly in your discovery-driven business plan
E n tr ep r en eu r ia lAc tiv ity
P er f o r m an c e( c u s to m er s , in v es to r s ,
e tc . )D r iv es
Strategy Drivers Help Specify Deliverablesand vice versa
Translate broad strategy Into daily operating activities StrategyTacticsOperations
1. Everybody understands operationsNo one understands strategy
2. Create a focus for competence creation
3. The most dangerous assumptions reside in the operations
4. The more integrated your deliverablesThe harder it is for a competitor to copy them
The Best Strategy Cannot Stop Technological Disruption
of the Industry
Diagnosing your Progress
Emphasis on Communication with all people involved The ‘Team’ (What’s this mean)
The ‘Team’ may be your best source of Leading indicators, and Strategy Drivers
E.g., see Figure 11-2 (276)
What is the problem with “we have no idea” responses?
Myths about Teamworkwith evidence Myth 1: Effective teams work together a lot, face-to-
face Independence + confidence is best; face-time = loafing
Myth 2: Conflict between group members is bad In the extreme it is dangerous (when members start
behaving at a more primitive level) but there is an optimal level of conflict that avoids groupthink and apathy
Myth 3: Teams are better off when members like each other Mutual respect is more important
Myth 4: Team satisfaction produces performance There is no correlation
Team Deftness
Deftness = =Facility + skill | confidence
Alternative term: ‘Cool’ Interpersonal confidence Confidence that others are
willing to do what is needed Information flows are
adequate and timely Feedback is adequate and
timely Figure 11-3 (p.282)
Distinctively Competent There should be a continual team monitoring of whether or not
The project will yield Distinctive competence
… more customer value added … market differentiation … competitive advantage … you get the picture
The point is to collect all of the information you can From all of the interested parties in the project At every point in time that you can
The questionnaires in Figures 11-3 to 11-10 are useful But a good project manager will be gathering this informally all
along the project Through informal discussions, meetings, and after-hours
gatherings
Future Fruit
Scenario Planning
top related