Management of the Niemen River basin with account of ... · Management of the Niemen River basin with account of adaptation to climate change Assessment of current status of water

Management of the Niemen River basin with

account of adaptation to climate change

Assessment of current status of water resources

in the Niemen River Basin

Vladimir Korneev, Egidijus Rimkus

v_korn@rambler.ru egidijus.rimkus@gf.vu.lt

With contribution:

Edvinas Stonevicius, Vilnius University, Lithuania;

Aliaksandr Pakhomau, Lubov Hertman, CRICUWR, Minsk, Belarus;

Audrius Šepikas, Environmental Protection Agency, Lithuania;

Nickolai Denisov, Zoï environment network, Switzerland

The main goal is improvement of the integrated water resources

management using the basin approach in the climate change

context by the example of the Niemen River

Meteorological and hydrological data collection and quality analysis

(data from 1961 to 2010);

Statistical analysis and evaluation of changes of meteorological and

hydrological characteristics;

Assessment of the future climate condition and forecast for near-term

future (2035; mean value of 2021-2050) according to A1B and B1

emission scenarios using regional CCLM climate model outputs;

Preliminary projections of runoff changes in the Niemen River basin in

the context of climate change using two different hydrological models.

Activities in 2012 and main reached results

Meteorological and

hydrological data

collection

Meteorological and hydrological information which was

used:

(daily, monthly, seasonal, annual values)

Analysis period: 1961-2010

Temperature/precipitation:

Data from 23 stations (8 stations in Belarus, 15 stations in

Lithuania)

Water discharge:

Data from 25 stations (12 stations in Belarus, 13 stations in

Lithuania)

Additional information necessary for hydrological modeling:

wind speed, humidity, sunshine duration

Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin

Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin

Detected changes of

meteorological and

hydrological characteristics

Assessment of the change of temperature (0C) in the Niemen River Basin (1986-2010) - (1961-

1985): on average +0.93 0C

2.4

2.0

1.31.2

0.2 0.2

1.4

0.9

0.20.1

0.0

0.5

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Januar

y

Febru

ary

Mar

chApril

May

June

July

August

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nove

mber

Dec

ember

Mo

nth

s (

dif

fere

nc

e,

0C

)

Air temperature

Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin

Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin

Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin

Precipitation amount

Assessment of the change of precipitation (%) in the Niemen River Basin (1986-2010) - (1961-

1985): on average +6.98%

8.28.9

5.3

-6.5

0.0

2.4

8.0

6.7

3.5

0.9

-7.0

-0.4

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Januar

y

Febru

ary

Mar

chApril

May

June

July

August

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nove

mber

Dec

ember

Mo

nth

s (

dif

fere

nc

e, %

)

Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin

Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin

Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin

Water discharge

Assessment of the change of runoff (%) in the Niemen River Basin (1985-2009) - (1961-

1984): average annual +2.7%; minimum (summer-autumn) +7.2%;

minimum (winter) +17.5%; maximum (spring) -27.4%

42.044.2

6.7

-19.9

-5.2

2.95.9

0.9

5.7

0.4

-1.5

6.9

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Januar

y

Febru

ary

Mar

chApri

l

May

June

July

August

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nove

mber

Dec

ember

Mo

nth

s (

dif

fere

nc

e,

%)

Hydrograph shape at the Dubysa (a) and the Niemen (b) rivers during two parts of

the study period 1960-1984 and 1985-2009

Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin

Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin

The main tendencies and trends:

Statistically significant increase in annual, winter and

summer temperature (largest changes were observed in

January);

Statistically significant increase in winter precipitation;

Maximum spring flood discharge decreased and the

minimum winter flow increased statistically significant in

large part of territory

Peak of spring flood and the dates of minimum winter flow

tends occur earlier in the whole basin area.

Detected changes of meteorological and hydrological

characteristics

Future climate

projections

Two greenhouse gas emission scenarios

were used

A1B (relatively high-emission scenario)

B1 (low-emission scenario)

Near-term forecast 2020-2050 was made

Climate projections for the whole Nemunas basin was made

with using CCLM model outputs

The regional CCLM model covers a large

part of the European territory with a high

spatial resolution (20 km 20 km).

The regional CCLM model runs are driven

by the initial and boundary conditions of the

Global Circulation Model ECHAM5/MPI-OM.

Realizations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model

were dynamically downscaled to a smaller grid

using the CCLM model.

Air temperature projections

Assessment of the future change of temperature in the Niemen River Basin until 2035 (mean

value of 2021-2050). On average: A1B +1.7 0C; B1 +1.36

0C

2.4

2.8 2.8

1.7

1.8

0.7

1.0

0.7

1.1

1.3

1.6

2.8

0.8

2.12.2

1.4

0.8

0.3

1.5

0.9

0.7

1.3

1.7

2.6

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Januar

y

Febru

ary

Mar

ch

April

May

June

July

August

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nove

mber

Dec

ember

ch

an

ge,

0C

A1B scenario

B1 scenatio

A1B

B1

Annual

A1B

Winter

B1

Precipitation amount

Assessment of the future change of precipitation in the Niemen River Basin until 2035

(mean value of 2021-2050). On average: A1B +6.51%; B1 +2.42%

9.1

6.7

14.0

12.1

1.9

5.0

2.9

5.1

2.5 2.6

6.9

9.3

-4.3

3.6

6.4 6.7

-8.0

-0.7

-4.8

2.2

6.8

9.5

4.4

7.2

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

Januar

y

Febru

ary

Mar

ch

April

May

June

July

August

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nove

mber

Dec

ember

ch

an

ge

, %

A1B scenario

B1 scenatio

`

Annual

A1B

B1

Winter

A1B

B1

Summer

A1B

B1

Projections of runoff

changes in the Niemen

River basin

Prediction of Niemen River basin runoff changes were made using

WatBal hydrological model.

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Ags Spt

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Observed

A1B

B1

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Ags Spt

Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Observed

A1B

B1

Merkys

Schara

Planned future activities

Forecasting the runoff of the Niemen River basin in the context of

climate change and with account of different scenarios for water use

and socio-economic development;

Analysis of the hydrometeorological, hydrochemical and

hydrobiological monitoring systems in the Niemen River transboundary

basin and assessment of the needs for these systems optimization for

climate change monitoring (including emergency cases);

Estimation and forecast of the future climate change impact on the

water quality;

Elaboration of the common information platform (Internet database),

containing data on water resources management and adaptation to

climate change for the Niemen River basin countries and

recommendations for the improvement of the water management in

the Niemen River Basin with account of adaptation to climate change.

Parameter TYPE

1 2 3 4 5

River basin area,

km2 <100 100-1000 >1000

River slope, m/km - <0,7 >0,7 <0,3 >0,3

Lake depth < 3 3-9 >9

Assessment of water quality based on the European System of

Classification (e.g. Lithuanian experience)

Typology of rivers and lakes (Lithuanian experience)

No. Quality element Parame

ter

Lake

type

Paramete

r value for

reference

condition

s

Criteria for ecological status classes of lakes

according to parameter values for the physico-

chemical quality element

High Good Moderate Poor Bad

1

General

conditions Nutrients

Nt, mg/l 1, 2 1 <1.30 1.30-

1.80 1.81-2.30

2.31-

3.00 >3.00

2 Nt, mg/l 3 0.75 <0.90 0.90-

1.20 1.21-1.60

1.61-

2.00 >2.00

3 Pt, mg/l 1, 2 0.02 <0.040 0.040-

0.060

0.061-

0.090

0.091

-

0.140

>0.140

4 Pt, mg/l 3 0.015 <0.030 0.030-

0.050

0.051-

0.070

0.071

-

0.100

>0.100

Assessment of water quality based on the European System of

Classification

Classification of ecological status of lakes

(Lithuanian experience)

No. Quality element Paramet

er

River

type

Parameter

value for

reference

conditions

*

Criteria for ecological status classes of

rivers according to parameter values for

physico-chemical quality elements

High Good Mode

rate Poor Bad

1

General

data

Nutrien

ts

NO3-N,

mg/l 1-5 0.9 <1.30

1.30-

2.30

2.31-

4.50

4.51 -

10.00 >10.00

2 NH4+N,

mg/l 1-5 0.06 <0.10

0.10-

0.20

0.21-

0.60

0.61-

1.50 >1.50

3 Nt, mg/l 1-5 1.4 <2.00 2.00-

3.00

3.01-

6.00

6.01-

12.00 >12.00

4 PO4-P,

mg/l 1-5 0.03 <0.050

0.050-

0.090

0.091-

0.180

0.181-

0.400 >0.400

5 Pt, mg/l 1-5 0.06 <0.100 0.100-

0.140

0.141-

0.230

0.231-

0.470 >0.470

6 Organic

matter

BOD7,

mg/l 1-5 1.8 <2.30

2.30-

3.30

3.31-

5.00

5.01-

7.00 >7.00

7 Oxygen

ation

O2, mg/l 1, 3, 4,

5 9.5 >8.50

8.50-

7.50

7.49-

6.00

5.99-

3.00 <3.00

8 O2, mg/l 2 8.5 >7.50 7.50-

6.50

6.49-

5.00

4.99-

2.00 <2.00

Assessment of water quality based on the European System of

Classification

Classification of ecological status of rivers (Lithuanian experience)

Thank you for attention !

River Niemen in Grodno (Belarus)