Making the right decisions in a complex world
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Making the right decisions in a complex world
Canadian Health Workforce Conference
Dr. Graham WillisHead of R&D, Centre for Workforce Intelligence
Many years ago…
How many trained hospital doctors will we have by 2040?
increase60% T
WO
BIL
LIO
N2bn£
TW
O B
ILL
ION
Cost
How many do we need?
Do we trust this?
Trai
ned
hosp
ital d
octo
rs
(tho
usan
ds)
60
50
40
30
Year2014 2040
Supply
Demand
?
Policy
What if the future is not what we expect?
Failure
Megatrends
ProblemSystem
Events
Consider many futures…
TodayExpected
future
Use plausible, challenging and consistent futures to test policies
Robust workforce planning
Understand the system
Explore the future
Simulate the possibilities
Make robust decisions
Focal question
Transparent and participatory
Horizon scanning
Context
Issues
Factors
Events
ProbabilityImpactWorkforceStakeholder
Ideas bank System mapping
Scenario generationStakeholder workshops
Influencing factors
Keyfactors
Consistency check
Narrative scenarios
Quantified scenarios
Scenario generation workshopKey factors
Low
I
mpa
ct H
igh
Low Uncertainty High
Predetermined Key factors
Secondary
Scenario generation workshop
Population GDP growth Energy usage Carbonemissions
High
LowCA
B
Consistency analysis
Scenario generation workshop
Vary across different futures
Formal elicitation protocol
Monte Carlo simulation Prob
abili
ty
Value
Quantify critical parameters
Modeling and simulation
Demand side
OutputsSupply
side
Polic
y ou
tcom
es
Policy analysis
Today
Policy options: ABCD
Example PharmacyN
umbe
r of p
harm
acis
ts (f
ull-ti
me
equi
vale
nt)
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Year
Scenario 1
Scenario 3
Scenario 2
Scenario 4
Example Future demand for skillsSk
ill h
ours
/Yea
r (B
illio
ns)
2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036
Time (Year)
Probability: 80% 100%Central estimate:
Key points
What if the future is not what we expect?
Consider many futures Transparent and participatory approach
Stress testing
Contact details
Dr Graham WillisHead of Research and DevelopmentCentre for Workforce Intelligence, England
@
+44(0)7812 340 405
graham.willis@cfwi.org.uk
www.cfwi.org.uk | www.horizonscanning.org.uk
Making the right decisions in a complex world
Canadian Health Workforce Conference
Dr. Graham WillisHead of R&D, Centre for Workforce Intelligence
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