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Institute for sustainable development 

and international relations

Could Tourism carrying capacity be a useful

tool for adapting to climate change?

Virginie DUVATvirginie.duvat@univ-lr.fr

Littoral 2010 Adapting to global change at the coast 

London, 21-23 September 2010

Sciences Po Paris (France)

www.iddri .org

LIENSs- Littoral, Environnement, Sociétés

UMR CNRS 6250

University of La Rochelle (France)

http://lienss.univ-larochelle. fr/ 

Alexandre MAGNANalexandre.magnan@iddri.org

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Littoral 2010 Adapting to global change at the coast 

London, 21-23 September 2010

Irreversibility& UncertaintyEven if 

Zéro GHG emissions

in 2100 temperatures wont decrease

& sea level will continue to rise

Source: Solomon et al., 2009.

T ourism carrying capacity & Adaptation to climate change

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Littoral 2010 Adapting to global change at the coast 

London, 21-23 September 2010

The usefulness of Tourism carrying capacity as a tool 

for starting implementing Adaptation to climate c hange?

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Littoral 2010 Adapting to global change at the coast 

London, 21-23 September 2010

The usefulness of Tourism carrying capacity as a tool 

for starting implementing Adaptation to climate c hange?

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Littoral 2010 Adapting to global change at the coast 

London, 21-23 September 2010

Tourism Carrying Capacity

T ourism carrying capacity & Adaptation to climate change

P art A. The underlying principles of TCC

the maximum number of visitors an area can host 

without irreversible damaging effects on the

environment and the society 

is usually defined as

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Littoral 2010 Adapting to global change at the coast 

London, 21-23 September 2010

TCC level(s)

T ourism carrying capacity & Adaptation to climate change

P art A. The underlying principles of TCC

E nvironmental TCC 

E conomic TCC 

Social TCC 

Cultural TCC 

F ar from the

thresholds

T hresholds

exceeded 

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Littoral 2010 Adapting to global change at the coast 

London, 21-23 September 2010

Beyond the numbercontroversies,

and based upon a rigorous assessment

methodology,

TCC study outputs are of real interest

 An example of the (rare) field experiences:

T ourism carrying capacity & Adaptation to climate change

P art A. The underlying principles of TCC

3 levels of carrying capacity showing where

environmental + anthropogenic

 pressures are

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Littoral 2010 Adapting to global change at the coast 

London, 21-23 September 2010

How to measure TCC?

T ourism carrying capacity & Adaptation to climate change

P art A. The underlying principles of TCC

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Littoral 2010 Adapting to global change at the coast 

London, 21-23 September 2010

How to measure TCC?

T ourism carrying capacity & Adaptation to climate change

P art A. The underlying principles of TCC

E  xpectations regarding tourism? 

Which shared values? 

Stakeholders arena(authorities, economic players,

local populations, tourists)

Limits of acceptable changes

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Littoral 2010 Adapting to global change at the coast 

London, 21-23 September 2010

T ourism carrying capacity & Adaptation to climate change

P art A. The underlying principles of TCC

How to measure TCC?

E nvironmental and human 

vulnerability assessement 

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Littoral 2010 Adapting to global change at the coast 

London, 21-23 September 2010

T ourism carrying capacity & Adaptation to climate change

P art A. The underlying principles of TCC

How to measure TCC?

E  xpectations regarding tourism? 

Which shared values? 

Stakeholders arena(authorities, economic players, local

populations, tourists)

Limits of acceptable changes

TCC synthetic index

E nvironmental and human 

vulnerability assessement 

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Littoral 2010 Adapting to global change at the coast 

London, 21-23 September 2010

T ourism carrying capacity & Adaptation to climate change

P art B. Potential links between TCC & ACC

TCC & Adaptation

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Littoral 2010 Adapting to global change at the coast 

London, 21-23 September 2010

T ourism carrying capacity & Adaptation to climate change

Tw o systemic and global approac hes

P art B. Potential links between TCC & ACC

TCC & Adaptation - C ommon features

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Littoral 2010 Adapting to global change at the coast 

London, 21-23 September 2010

T ourism carrying capacity & Adaptation to climate change

Tw o systemic and global approac hes

TCC & ACC are context-specific 

P art B. Potential links between TCC & ACC

TCC & Adaptation - C ommon features

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Littoral 2010 Adapting to global change at the coast 

London, 21-23 September 2010

T ourism carrying capacity & Adaptation to climate change

Tw o systemic and global approac hes

TCC & ACC are context-specific 

TCC & ACC are evolving approaches (assessment and monitoring)

P art B. Potential links between TCC & ACC

TCC & Adaptation - C ommon features

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Littoral 2010 Adapting to global change at the coast 

London, 21-23 September 2010

T ourism carrying capacity & Adaptation to climate change

TCC  is a tool 

P art B. Potential links between TCC & ACC

TCC & Adaptation ± O ne major difference

 ACC  is a concept 

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Littoral 2010 Adapting to global change at the coast 

London, 21-23 September 2010

T ourism carrying capacity & Adaptation to climate change

C onclusion

E  xpectations regarding tourism? 

Which shared 

values? 

Stakeholders arena(authorities, economic players, local

populations, tourists)

Limits of acceptable changesE nvironmental and human 

vulnerability assessement 

TourismC arrying C apacity 

 Adaptation to

climate change?

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Littoral 2010 Adapting to global change at the coast 

London, 21-23 September 2010

 Alexandre MAGNAN

alexandre.magnan@iddri.org

Virginie DUVAT

virginie.duvat@univ-lr.fr

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