LOAD FORECASTING AND DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT
Post on 12-Nov-2021
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LOAD FORECASTING
AND DEMAND SIDE MANAGEMENT
Dr. Garland LaliberteBipole III Coalition
17000
19000
21000
23000
25000
27000
29000
31000
33000
35000
Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Firm Energy before DSM, projected
from 20-year historic data, GWh
Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic)
Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Total Peak before DSM, projected
from 20-year historic data, MW
3200
3600
4000
4400
4800
5200
5600
6000
6400
Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic)
Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Firm Energy before DSM, projected
from 10-year historic data, GWh
21000
23000
25000
27000
29000
31000
33000
35000
Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic)
Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Total Peak before DSM, projected
from 10-year historic data, MW
3200
3600
4000
4400
4800
5200
5600
6000
6400
Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic)
Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Firm Energy before and after DSM, GWh
21000
23000
25000
27000
29000
31000
33000
35000
Historic MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM
Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Firm Energy before and after DSM, GWh
21000
23000
25000
27000
29000
31000
33000
35000
Historic MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM MH17 Forecast after EM DSM
Twenty-year Financial Impactson Domestic Revenue
Over-forecasting $2.3BEfficiency Manitoba DSM $5.1BTotal $7.4B
Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Total Peak before and after DSM, MW
3200
3600
4000
4400
4800
5200
5600
6000
6400
Historic MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM
Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Firm Energy before DSM, GWh
21000
23000
25000
27000
29000
31000
33000
35000
Historic MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic)
Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Total Peak before DSM, MW
3200
3600
4000
4400
4800
5200
5600
6000
6400
Historic MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic)
Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Total Peak before and after DSM, MW
3200
3600
4000
4400
4800
5200
5600
6000
6400
Historic MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM Linear (Historic) after MH17 DSM Linear (Historic)
Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Firm Energy before and after DSM, GWh
21000
23000
25000
27000
29000
31000
33000
35000
Historic MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM MH17 Forecast after EM DSM Linear (Historic)
Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Firm Energy before and after DSM, GWh
21000
23000
25000
27000
29000
31000
33000
35000
Historic Linear (Historic) after MH17 DSM Linear (Historic) after EM DSM Linear (Historic)
Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Firm Energy before and after DSM, GWh
21000
23000
25000
27000
29000
31000
33000
35000
Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast
MH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM MH17 Forecast after EM DSM
Linear (Historic) after MH17 DSM Linear (Historic) after EM DSM Linear (Historic)
Weather-Adjusted Historical and ForecastGross Total Peak before and after DSM, MW
3200
3600
4000
4400
4800
5200
5600
6000
6400
Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 ForecastMH17 Forecast MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM Linear (Historic) after MH17 DSMLinear (Historic)
Weather-Adjusted Historic and ForecastGross Firm Energy before and after DSM, GWh
21000
23000
25000
27000
29000
31000
33000
35000
MH13 Forecast (NFAT) Historic MH15 Forecast MH16 Forecast
MH17 Forecast Linear (Historic) MH17 Forecast after MH17 DSM MH17 Forecast after EM DSM
Recommendation No. 1
The Public Utilities Board should directManitoba Hydro to revise its electric loadforecast downward to more adequately reflectrecent historic experience, price elasticityimpacts and insights into factors driving loadforecasts in other North American jurisdictionsfor consideration in its current General RateApplication.
Recommendation No. 2
The Public Utilities Board should directManitoba Hydro to conduct its own analysis ofthe impact on Manitoba Hydro’s balance sheetof the Government’s legislated plan for DemandSide Management of electric energy and toreport its findings to the Public Utilities Board aspart of its next General Rate Application.
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