Load foecasting and power procurement planning in power sector

LOAD FORECASTING &

POWER PROCUREMENTPLANNING ANALYSIS IN POWER SECTOR

Manish kumar8019100686

INTRODUCTION

Load forecasting is vitally important for the electric

industry in the deregulated economy.

It helps an electric utility to make important decisions

including decisions on purchasing and generating electric

power, load switching, and infrastructure development.

Load forecasts can be divided into three categories:

short-term forecasts, medium forecasts and long-term

forecasts.

A large variety of mathematical methods have been

developed for load forecasting.

LOAD FORECASTING

Process which involves estimation of future loads and ways in which these loads can be met.

Load forecast defines the amount of growth expected from the power system.

Load forecasts carried out on a state-wide, regional or national basis provide satisfactory input to the generation expansion planning.

WHY LOAD FORECASTING?

For proper planning of power system. For proper planning of transmission & distribution planning. For proper power system operation. For proper financing. For proper man power development. For proper grid formation. For proper energy sales

Origin of Load Forecasting:

TVA was the first to do load forecasting in order to overcome the needs of power in the greater depression years.

Tennessee Valley Authority prepares best medium forecast possible with the information available at the time of preparation.

TYPES OF LOADS:

Domestic and Residential loads Industrial loadsCommercial loadsWater supply and agricultural loads Agricultural and irrigational loadsSensitive and important loadsTraction loads

FACTORS AFFECTING LOAD FORECASTING:

WeatherTimeEconomyRandom disturbance

TYPES OF LOAD CURVES:

Daily load curve.Monthly load curve.Yearly load curve.

DAILY LOAD CURVE:

MONTHLY LOAD CURVE:

YEARLY LOAD CURVE:

DEMAND CURVES:

TYPES OF LOAD FORECASTING:

S h o rt term fo recas ts(o n e h o u r to a w eek )

M ed iu m fo recas ts(a m o n th u p to a year)

Lo n g term fo recas ts(o ver o n e year)

Load Forecasts

LOAD FORECASTING METHODS

SHORT TERM FORECASTING

METHODS.

MEDIUM FORECASTING METHODS.

LONG TERM FORECASTING METHODS.

SHORT TERM LOAD FORECASTING METHODS:Statistical Methods:

In statistical methods, equations can be obtained showing the relationship between load and its relative factors after training the historical data Artificial Intelligence Methods:

Artificial intelligence methods try to imitate human beings’ way of thinking and reasoning to get knowledge from the past experience and forecast the future load.

Exponential Smoothing:

Compares your prior forecast with your prior actual and then applies the difference between the two to the next forecast.

Similar Day Approach: Searching historical data for days within one, two or three years with similar characteristics to the forecast day.

Fuzzy logic: Fuzzy logic is a generalization of the usual Boolean logic used for digital circuit design. An input under Boolean logic takes on a value of “True” or “False”, input is associated with certain qualitative ranges.

Expert system : Expert systems incorporate rules and procedures used by human expert in the field of interest into software that is then able to automatically make forecasts without human assistance.

MEDIUM AND LONG TERM LOAD FORECASTING METHODS:

1. End-use model : End-use models focus on the

various uses of electricity in the residential, commercial, and industrial sector. These models are based on the principle that electricity demand is derived from customer’s demand for light, cooling, heating, refrigeration, etc.

2. Econometric models: Estimates the relationships

between energy consumption and factors influencing consumption. The relationships are estimated by the least-squares method or time series methods.

LOAD FORECAST LICENSING

The load forecasts to be submitted to commission will be divided into three categories:A detailed forecast for control period under consideration for tariff. A simple forecast for subsequent control period Information relevant to the load forecast

POWER PROCUREMENT

Acquisition of power from resources on the basis of forecasted data of load is termed as power procurement.

Power procurement license is obtained

by the

process of bidding.

Participants should submit Request for

Proposals (RFP).

Documents relevant to the procurement

process

shall be submitted to the commission.

PROCUREMENT LICENSING

RESULTS OF PROCUREMENT

Each power procurement plan shall describe: Existing resources Available data for each supplying source Annual capacity and energy balance statements The plan for additional power procurement A plan to handle situations of emergencies for additional power procurement

RESOURCE PLANS:

Each resource plan prepared by a licensee

shall

Contain enough information to allow the

commission

understand the specific objectives.

Identify uncertainties and the aspects to manage

it.

Identify sources of finance.

Be sustained with consumer tariffs and

Government

subsidy.

TRANSMISSION PLANNING

Transmission plan shall clearly demonstrate segregation into:

System Expansion Plan

System Improvement Plan

Generation Evacuation Plan

CONCLUSION: Importance of load forecasting is been analyzed.

Various methods involved in load forecasting

are being studied.

Various methods in power procurement processes

are studied.

Resource plans to meet the required power have

been developed.

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