Landscape Conservation Planning and Design for the Grand ......Landscape Conservation Planning and Design ... •Ecological significance of the landscape •Conservation scenario approach:
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1895
Landscape Conservation Planning and Design for the Grand Kankakee Marsh Watershed
The Grand Kankakee Marsh in Indiana in 1895
Project Participants
• Notre Dame • Jessica Hellmann • Diogo Bolster • Alan Hamlet • Mark Schurr
• USGS
• Ralph Grundel • Dave Lampe • Noel Pavlovic
• Notre Dame/USGS Project Manager & GIS Analyst • Tammy Patterson
• Project Support (Notre Dame) Partner Organizations • Jason MacLachlan DU, Field Museum, FWS, IL DNR, IN DNR • Jody Peters IN Department of Agriculture, NRCS, TNC • Chun-Mei Chiu • Undergraduate assistants Project Funding – UMGL LCC (80%) and USGS MWR (20%)
Why the LCC likes this project
• Ecological significance of the landscape
• Conservation scenario approach: Δ Land Use-> Δ Ecosystem Service Value
• Realistic assessment of how restoration scenarios benefit humans and wildlife
Why the LCC likes this project
• Restoration and ecosystem services linked by common mechanism – water levels
• Common mechanism flexibly links how inputs (land use) affect outputs (ecosystem services) under many conditions (e.g. climate change)
• Historic, current, and future conditions evaluated
• High velocity of moving project results to use
Why project investigators like the LCC
• High velocity of moving project results to use
• The LCC process has clarified how the results will be used and what results are most useful
• LCC helped turn controversy into project focus
• LCC process has made the project more efficient
Kankakee Project Overview
2013 Upper Midwest & Great Lakes LCC RFP :
Identifying and integrating objectives for waterfowl habitat, waterfowl
populations, and people. Projects should develop and apply a modeling framework to link waterfowl population objectives, habitat objectives, and the values of stakeholders.
“Assessment of Waterfowl Habitat Restoration as an Adaptive
Mechanism for Water Sustainability in the Grand Kankakee River
Watershed”
CHICAGO
Current Everglades and Historic Kankakee Marsh similar area (ca. 500,000 acres)
10,000 Years of Human Occupation
The Sportsman’s Marsh
1880 - 1910
The Drained Marsh
1920 - Present
The Modern Marsh
ROCK LEDGE
Project Goal:
Assess the value of potential
Kankakee watershed
restoration scenarios for
humans and native species
• Build surface & groundwater models • surface water storage
• groundwater recharge
• aquifer storage & use
• Couple to valuation of ecosystems services • waterfowl production/habitat
• sportsman/recreational user value
• agricultural production
• Identify potential wetland restoration
scenarios • improved historic knowledge
• peer-input
• Assess scenarios • historic
• at present
• under climate change projections
• under urbanization projections
• Employ as planning decision support tool
Project Goals:
Site Rationale:
• Once home to Grand Kankakee Marsh
• Hydrology is highly modified system
• Predominantly agricultural landscape
• Some quality remnant wetlands remain
• Wetland restorations completed in watershed
• Potential for National Wildlife Refuge
Surface
Water
Ground
Water
Present
Land-use
Ecosystem
Services
Historic
Land cover
Land-use
Scenarios
Climate
Change
Urbanization
Peer Input
Scenario A
Scenario B
Scenario C Agriculture
Modeling Scheme
Scenario Values
• Paleo-Ecologic Observatory Network
(PalEON)--reconstruct forest composition
• Database of Public Land Survey (PLS) data
• Historic tree species density, landcover types
• Baselines for ecosystem service models
• Informs restoration planning
Historic Recreation Historic
Land cover
Oak Density
Surface Water Model
• Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) surface water model
• Value for surface water storage, recharge to groundwater,
structure of wetlands
Ground Water Model
• MODFLOW
• Value for water storage for public water supply & agricultural
irrigation
Hydrology Models
Surface
Water
Ground
Water
• Simulation of groundwater transport & groundwater heights
• Ground water heights inform ecosystem services models
MODFLOW Hydrology Model
Ground
Water
Surface
Water
Arihood, L. D. and M. E. Basch (1994). Geohydrology and simulated ground-water flow in an irrigated area of northwestern Indiana. U. S. G. Survey: 43.
EXAMPLE: Changing Hydrology in
the Skagit Basin
Changes in Magnitude and Seasonal Timing of
Stream Flow
Summary of Regulated Flood Impacts
16
38
00
20
15
00
(+2
3%
) 2
29
30
0 (
+4
9%
)
By the 2040s, the
historical 100-year
event is projected to
become a 22-year
event.
By the 2040s, the
historical 30-year
event is projected to
become an 7-year
event. 0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Historical 2040s Mean 2080s Mean
Sim
ula
ted
10
0-Y
ear
Flo
od
(cf
s)
16
38
00
20
15
00
(+2
3%
) 2
29
30
0 (
+49
%)
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Soi
l Moi
stu
re (
mm
)
Wet
lan
d V
olu
me
(%)
Wetland Impacts
Red = Simulated Soil Moisture Blue = Observed Wetland Volume
Research Questions:
• How sensitive are wetlands to seasonal changes in temperature
and precipitation?
• How will changes in agricultural withdrawal affect wetlands?
• How will wetlands affect water storage for agriculture?
MODFLOW Hydrology Model
Ground
Water
Surface
Water
Hydrology for the Kankakee Project
1. Produce long retrospective hydrologic simulations of the Kankakee basin for
current land use and drainage infrastructure (1910-2010).
2. Evaluate the effects of climate change on the hydrologic response of the basin
(e.g. Simulate changes in runoff, groundwater recharge, seasonal water table height and
water bird habitat) for different land cover/drainage scenarios.
3. Simulate the hydrologic effects of pre-development land cover and drainage
characteristics to establish ecosystem baselines such as pre-development marsh extent,
waterfowl habitat, etc.
4. Evaluate hydrologic impacts of wetland restoration s, when specific areas of the
watershed are restored to marsh. Evaluate effects on agricultural water storage.
5. Evaluate the effects of human infrastructure on watershed (e.g. simulate the effects
of tile drainage on flooding and sediment)
Overall Objective:
Explore effects of different land cover, climate, drainage infrastructure on the hydrologic
response of the Kankakee.
Here we outline a vision for improving both the productivity and environmental performance of agriculture in the U.S. Midwest, also known as the Corn Belt. Mean annual precipitation has increased throughout the region over the past 50 years, consistent with climate models that attribute the increase to a warming troposphere. Stream gauge data indicate that higher precipitation has been matched or exceeded by higher stream flows, contributing to flooding, soil loss, and excessive nutrient flux to the Gulf of Mexico. We propose increasing landscape hydrologic storage through construction of ponds and restoration of wetlands to retain water for supplemental irrigation while also reducing flood risks. U.S. Midwest both can be sustainably increased with supplemental irrigation. The proposed strategy should reduce interannual yield variability by limiting losses due to transient drought, while facilitating adoption of cropping systems that ‘‘perennialize’’ the landscape to take advantage of the full potential growing season.
• Based on Natural Capital Project InVEST Methodology
• INCLUDES:
• Waterfowl production/habitat quality
• Based on surface water/groundwater heights
• Waterfowl Guilds
• Hunter value
• Based on wetland extent, waterfowl production, & services
• Recreational user value
• Based on attributes & services
Ecosystem Services Models Ecosystem
Services
Great
Good
• SALUS model (MSU)
• Based on soil types & hydrology
• Research questions: How might climate change affect
agricultural production?
• InVEST Natural Capital Methodology
Agricultural Model Agriculture
• Current Land Use/ Land Cover
• Return to historic 1800’s landcover
• Removal of agricultural tile drainage
• Chicago Wilderness Green Infrastructure Vision (GIV 2.2)
• OTHERS?
• REAL Restoration Possibilities?
• Peer Input !!
Scenario Building Peer Input
Land-use
Scenarios
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