Transcript
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Labor Trends
in
Northwest Wisconsin
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
•In the last 20 years the population increased 6% and the labor force expanded 25%.
•The northwest population is growing primarily from new residents who move to the area.
•The population in NW Wisconsin is projected to increase 7% by 2020 … but the labor force will increase only 3 - 4%.
•By 2020, 23 percent of the population will be over the age of 65.
Population and Labor Force
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Historic and ProjectedPopulation and Labor Force
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Source: WI Dept of Admin, Demographic Services, DWD Local Area Unemployment Statistics, OEA
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Components of population change in Northwest
Wisconsin: 2000 - 2005
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Total Natural
increase
Migration
Northwest
Wisconsin
UnitedStates
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
NW Wisconsin Population & Labor Force by Age in 2000
5%17%
55%
83%85%
86%
69%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 -74 75 +
Population
Labor force
Age groups
= 89,700
Source: US Census 2000
=143,026
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Labor Force Participation in 2000 Wisconsin = 69.1%
United States = 63.9%
54 – 60 Percent
61 – 70 Percent
66 – 70 Percent
Greater than 71%
Source: US Census Bureau, Census 2000
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Labor Force Participation by Age Group
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
16-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70+
Northwest Wisconsin US
Source: Census 2000
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
NW Wisconsin Population & Labor Force by Age in 2015
6%21%
57%
85%
88%85%
71%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
16 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64 65 -74 75 +
Population
Labor force
Age groups
= 97,600
Source: special tabulation using Census 2000 & WI Demographic Services population projections
= 158,450
62%
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Labor Force Distribution by Age
13,683 13,982 10,593
16,267 18,48218,175
45,656 44,22538,249
10,58517,119
19,119
6,5913,521
4,677
2000 2010 2020
65+
55-65
35-54
25-34
16-24
89,700 98,500 92,700
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Civilian Non-institutional Population
Not in the labor force
16+ years old = labor force age
population
Under 16 years old
Not interested in
work
Civilian Labor Force
Working or looking for work
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
64.5%
4.0%
31.5%
Discouraged workers
Retired workers
Students
Family responsibilities
Job losersJob
leaversNew entrants & re-entrants
Unpaid family workers
Self-employed workers
Full time workers
Part time workers
Temporary workers
Employed
Not in labor force
Unemployed
68.5% of the population aged 16 yrs or more is either
employed or unemployed
Northwest labor force participation rate -
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Labor Force, Employment & Jobs
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Labor forceHshld. employment
Nonfarm jobs
Source: WI DWD, Bureau of Workforce Information
------16%------
------25%------
---3%---
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
•An average of 92,840 residents in NW Wisconsin were employed in 2005, including self-employed, farmers, owner/operators, and job-holders.
•There was an average of 74,200 jobs in 2005 - a new high – in NW Wisconsin.
•Female workers out-number male workers in NW Wisconsin: 50.6 vs 49.4%
•43% of the workers in NW Wisconsin are aged 45 years or over.
•60% of all workers with a Bachelor’s degree or more are aged 45 years or over.
Labor Force and Jobs
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Nonfarm Jobs Added 1980-1990
Northwest Wisconsin
Finance, Ins.
Real Estate
4% Manufacturing34%
Construction &
Mining
5%
Total Trade
24%
Services &
Misc.
33%
Source: DWD, Small County Employment Estimates, 2006
Total = 7,920
Transportation, Comm, Utilities -510
Government -120
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Nonfarm Jobs Added 1990-2000
Northwest Wisconsin
Finance, Ins.
Real Estate
3%
Manufacturing
10%
Construction &
Mining
12%
Total
Government
22%
Trans, Comm,
Utilities
5%
Total Trade
22%
Services &
Misc.
19%
Casino
7%
Source: DWD, Small County Employment Estimates, 2006
Total = 14,511
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Nonfarm Jobs Added in 2005Northwest Wisconsin
Financial
activities
9%
Manufacturing
13%
Constr & nat.
resources
18%Info/prfsnl-bus.
& othr. serv.
Whsl-Retail
Trade
9%
Transpo/wrhsg/
utilities
12%
Government
0%
Leisure &
hospitality
7%
Ed & health
services
20%
Source: DWD, Small County Employment Estimates, 2006
Total = 700
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Total nonfarm jobs in Northwest Wisconsin
68,000
69,000
70,000
71,000
72,000
73,000
74,000
75,000
76,000
77,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
4,50
0
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Nonfarm Jobs in 2005Northwest Wisconsin
Financial
activities
4%
Manufacturing18%
Constr & nat.
resources
5%
Info/prfsnl-bus.
& othr. serv.
12%
Transpo/wrhsg/
utilities
5%
Whsl-Retail
Trade
15%
Government
22%
Leisure &
hospitality
12%
Ed & health
services
7%
Source: DWD, Small County Employment Estimates, 2006
Total = 74,230
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
10 Largest Industry Sectors-45% of the jobs-
Ambulatory Health Care Services
Food and Beverage Stores
Truck Transportation
Hospitals
Food Manufacturing
Education services
Executive, Legislative, & General Government
Food Services & Drinking Places
Wood Product Mfg
Nursing and Residential Care Facilities
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Greater share of employment than in U.S.
(higher location quotient)Sector name LQ NW% US%
Manufacturing 31 1.2 2.6%2.2%
Manufacturing 32 2.9 10.7%3.7%
Retail trade 44 1.0 9.9%9.4%
Transportation 1.5 4.1%2.7%
Arts, Entertainment, Recreation 1.3 2.2%1.7%
Accommodation & Food Service1.1 10.6%9.8%
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
311 Food 312 Beverage &
tobacco 314 Textile
products 315 Apparel 316 Leather &
related 321 Wood 322 Paper 323 Printing &
support 324 Petroleum &
coal 325 Chemical 326 Plastics &
rubber 327 Nonmetalic
mineral
481 Air 482 Rail 483 Water 484 Truck 485 Transit & ground
passenger 486 Pipeline 487 Scenic & sightseeing 488 Support activities
441 Motor vehicle & parts
442 Furniture & home 443 Electronics &
appliance 444 Bldg mat. & garden
equip. 445 Food & beverage 446 Health & personal
care 447 Gasoline 448 Clothing &
accessories
711 Performing arts, spectator sports
712 Museums, historical sites 713 Amusements, gambling 721 Accommodation 722 Food & drinking
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Age of Workers with Northwest Employers
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
14-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-99
2001 2002 2003 2004
Age group
Source: US Census, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
14-18 19-21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-99
Male Female
Age group
Source: US Census, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
14-18 19-21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-99Age group
Turn-over
Age of Workers withNorthwest Manufacturers
All = 4.2%
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
14-18 19-21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-99
Male Female
Age group
Source: US Census, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
14-18 19-21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-99Age group
Turn-over
Age of Workers withNorthwest Health Care Providers
All = 7.8%
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
14-18 19-21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-99
Male Female
Age group
Source: US Census, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
14-18 19-21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-99Age group
Turn-over
Age of Workers withNorthwest Retailers
All = 9.3%
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
14-18 19-21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-99
Male Female
Age group
Source: US Census, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
14-18 19-21 22-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-99Age group
Turn-over
Age of Workers withNorthwest Accommodation and Food Service
All = 15.6%
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Sex of Workers with NW Employers
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Const &Nat.Rsrcs
Mfg Trade Transp &Util
Finan. &RE
Info, Prf& Bus,Othr
Education Healthcare
Accom. &Food Srv
Pub.Adm.
Male Female
Source: US Census, Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
1,000+
500-999
250-499
100-249
50-99
20-49
10-19
5-9
1-4
No. of employees
Northwest Wisconsin estalishments and workers by employment size range in 2004
2,556
1,147
691
437
160
76
24
5
0
01,0002,0003,000
Number of establishments by size range
5,728
7,499
9,173
13,016
10,869
11,303
8,629
2,990
0
0 5,000 10,000 15,000
Number of workers by size
88%
17%
32%
>1%
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
$20,179 – $24,999
$25,000 – $28,999
$29,000 – $33,999
$34,000 – $39,920
2004 Annual Average Wage
Source: DWD, BWI, Census of Employment & Wages
U. S. - $39,348
Wisconsin - $34,749
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Occupation Projections
Employment by industry from Quarterly Census of Employment &
Wages
Industry-occupation
matrix
Occupation Employment Survey identifies occupations
employed in specific industries
Used for monthly employment
estimates
Industry demand projected Hourly
wagesEstimate for self-
employed
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Occupation group distribution & wages
$16.56
$17.72
$23.40
$10.61
$7.58
$11.12
$10.61
$15.41
$13.00
$12.58
$19.65
$21.25
$29.51
$11.39
$13.21
$15.00
$14.12
$8.12
$12.96
$19.18
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Trans & Movers
Maint./Prod.
Construction
Office/Admin
Sales
Food service
Other service
Healthcare
Professional
Mgmt & Bus. Wisconsin
Northwest
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Nonfarm Jobs: Actual & Projected
2012
49,736
74,22972,164
57,829
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Actual jobs Trend 2012 projected
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Industry projections 2002 - 2012
396,340
8,250
26,590
34,660
26,590
22,390
18,440
23,850
16,800
59,950
131,100Milw-WOW 15.7%
South Central 14.5%
Southwest 14.3%
West Central 13.9%
Western 13.7%
Southeast 13.4%
North Central 13.4%
Wisconsin 13.3%
Fox Valley 12.2%
Bay Area 11.9%
Northwest 11.8%
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
NW Job Growth by Industry 2002-2012
Education &
Health Services
40%
Public Admin.
3%
Constr. & Nat.
Resources
8%
Manufacturing
5%Trade
11%
Transporting &
Utilities
6%
Financial
Activities
4%
Info, Prfsnl &
Bus. Services
11%
Leisure &
Hospitality
12%
Total projected increase - 8,250 jobs
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Occupation Distribution in Northwest WI in 2002
Admin. Support
16%
Education
related
6%
Other
professional
6%
Mgmt &
Business
6% Healthcare
related
7%
Other service
9%Sales related
9%
Food service
10%
Transporting &
Mat. moving
9%
Maintenance &
Production
17%
Nat. resources &
Construction
5%
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Occupation Distribution in Northwest WI in 2012
Admin. Support
15%
Education
related
6%
Other
professional
6%
Mgmt &
Business
6% Healthcare
related
8%
Other service
9%
Sales related
9%
Food service
10%
Transporting &
Mat. moving
9%Maintenance &
Production
16%
Nat. resources &
Construction
6%
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Projected new jobs: 2002 - 2012
0 50 100 150 200
Transporting & Mat. moving
Maintenance & Production
Nat. Resources & Construction
Clerical & Admin. Support
Sales related
Other service
Food service
Other professional
Education related
Healthcare related
Management & Business
NorthwestWisconsin
Source: WI, Office of Economic Advisors, October 2004
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
16 occupations with most new jobs
Truck Drivers, Heavy
Nursing Aides Registered Nurses Cashiers Retail
Salespersons Waiters/Waitresses Comb. Food Prep.
(incl. fast food) Carpenters
Personal & Home Care Aides
Janitors & Cleaners Office Clerks/General Bartenders Maids/Housekeeping
Cleaners Sales Reps, Whlsl & Mfg General & Operations Mgrs Maintenance & Repair
Workers, General
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Occupations with most new jobs 2002-2012 (annual openings)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Truck Drivers,Heavy
Nursing Aides
Registered Nurses
Cashiers
Retail Salespersons
Waiters/Waitresses
Comb. Food Prep.
Carpenters
Personal Care Aides
Janitors & Cleaners
Office Clerks/General
Bartenders
Maids/Housekpg Cleaners
Sales Reps, Whlsl & Mfg
General & Operations Mgrs
Maint. & Repair Workers, Gen.
New
Replacements
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Projected annual openings: 2002 - 2012
0 100 200 300 400
Transporting & Mat. moving
Maintenance & Production
Nat. Resources & Construction
Clerical & Admin. Support
Sales related
Other service
Food service
Other professional
Education related
Healthcare related
Management & Business NorthwestWisconsin
Source: WI, Office of Economic Advisors, October 2004
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
16 occupation with most openings
Cashiers Waiters/Waitresses Retail Salespersons Truck Drivers,
Heavy/Tractor-Trailer Comb. Food Prep.
Including fast food
Nursing Aides Registered Nurses Bartenders
Carpenters Office Clerks/General Laborers-Freight, Stock,
Material Movers: Hand Personal & Home Care
Aides Janitors/Cleaners Maids/Housekeeping
Cleaners Sales Reps, Whlsl/Mfg Elementary School
Teachers, not Special Ed
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Occupations with most annual openings 2002-2012
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Cashiers
Waiters/Waitresses
Retail Salespersons
Truck Drivers, Heavy
Comb. Food Prep.
Nursing Aides
Registered Nurses
Bartenders
Carpenters
Office Clerks/General
Laborers/Movers: Hand
Home Care Aides
Janitors/Cleaners
Maids/Housekpng Clnrs
Sales Reps, Whlsl/Mfg
Elem. School Teachers
New
Replacements
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
16 Occupations with greatest % increase
Home Health Aides Personal Care Aides Social/Human Service
Assistants Registered Nurses
Preschool Teachers Electricians Receptionists &
Information Clerks Bus Drivers, School
Child Care Workers Counter and Rental
Clerks Plumbers, Pipefitters,
Steamfitters Hairdressers/
Cosmetologists Carpenters Truck Drivers, Heavy &
Tractor-Trailer Nursing Aides Child/Family/School
Social Workers
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Jobs added annually by occupations with fastest
growth
0 15 30 45 60 75 90
Home Health Aides
Personal Care Aides
Social Serv. Assits
Registered Nurses
Preschool Teachers
Electricians
Recept. & Info. Clrks
Bus Drivers, School
Child Care Workers
Counter & Rental Clerks
Plumbers/Pipefitters
Cosmetologists
Carpenters
Truck Drivers, Heavy
Nursing Aides
Fam./School Social Wrkrs
New
Replacements
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Distribution of jobs by training: 2012
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Mfg Health care Education
Short-termOJT
Moderate-term OJT
Long-termOJT, Voc,Assoc. dgr.
Work expin occ
Bachelor'sdegree
More thanbachelor's
Source: WI DWD, Office of Economic Advisors, Employment Projections
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Distribution of jobs by training: 2012
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Retail Accom & Fd Ser All industries
Short-termOJT
Moderate-term OJT
Long-termOJT, Voc.,Assoc. dgr.Work exp inocc
Bachelor'sdegree
More thanbachelor's
Source: WI DWD, Office of Economic Advisors, Employment Projections
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Projected Job Openings by Training
2002 - 2012
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Short-termOJT
Moderate-term OJT
Long-trm OJT,Voc. trng,Assoc. dgr
Work exp. infield
Bachelor'sdegree
Grad. &prfsnl dgr
Replacements
New
Source: WI DWD, OEA, Employment Projections, 2002-2012
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
NW Education by Age Group
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
No HS dipl HS dipl Somecollege; no
dgr.
Assoc. dgr. Bachelor’sdgr.
Prfsnl. dgr.
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-64 65+
Source: US Census 2000
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Percent with education or training beyond high school: 2000
32 – 35 Percent
36 – 45 Percent
46 – 55 Percent
56% and greater
Wisconsin = 50.5%
United States = 51.8%
Source: Census 2000, SF3, PCT-25
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Top occupations (by sex) with post-secondary ed.
Elementary/middle school teacher
Registered nurse Secretary Bookkeeper/acct. clerk Nurse/home aide Accountant/auditor Office clerk Cashier Customer service rep. Retail salesperson
1st-line suprv/mgr. retail Carpenter Driver/sales worker Elem./middle schl.
teacher Manager 1st-line suprv. prod. wrkr. Janitor/bldg. cleaner Farmer/rancher Auto service tech/mech. Secondary schl. teacher
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Percent with Bachelor’s degree and more: 2000
10 – 15 Percent
15 – 20 Percent
20 – 25 Percent
Greater than 25%
Wisconsin = 22.4%
United States = 24.4%
Source: Census 2000, SF3, PCT-25
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Top occupations (by sex) with Bachelor’s degree or more
Elementary/middle teacher
Registered nurse Secondary teacher Postsecondary teacher Social worker Accountant/auditor Secretary/Adm. assist. Counselor Special ed. teacher Med/hlth service mgr.
Elementary/middle teacher
Secondary teacher Lawyer Manager Education administrator Postsecondary teacher Clergy Physician/surgeon Accountant/auditor 1st-line suprv/mgr. retail
dvisors A
E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
Beverly GehrkeLabor Market Analyst
Dept. of Workforce Development715-634-5289
Beverly.Gehrke@dwd.state.wi.us
www.dwd.state.wi.us/oea
dvisors A E conomic ffice of O
Department of Workforce Development
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