Jason Sippel NOAA/OAR/AOML Hurricane Research Division ... · Jason Sippel – NOAA/OAR/AOML Hurricane Research Division Chris Landsea – NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center

JasonSippel–NOAA/OAR/AOMLHurricaneResearchDivisionChrisLandsea–NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NationalHurricaneCenter

TheJHTisfundedbytheUSWeatherResearchPrograminNOAA/OAR'sOfficeofWeatherandAirQuality

98thAMSAnnualMee.ng-EighthConferenceonTransi.onofResearchtoOpera.ons-January10,2018

• OurMission: transfer

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JHT:Bythenumbers

•  Numberofprojectssupported:95•  82completed•  54implementedintooperationsatNHC/EMC/other•  21notaccepted•  5deferred•  2unabletobeimplemented

•  8projectsstarted1Sep.2015(FY15-17:8thround,1complete)•  6projectsstarted1July.2017(FY17-19:9thround)

•  ForecastorAnalysisBenefit:

• Efficiency:

• Compatibility:

• Sustainability:

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Ourprocess

•  CallforProposals–draftedanddisseminated(bi-annually)

•  PrincipalInvestigatorsapplyforfundingthroughNOAA

•  SevenmemberSteeringCommitteeratesallproposals

•  Fundedprojectsaretestedduring1or2hurricaneseasonsinconjunctionwithNHCpointsofcontact

•  Attheproject’send,eachareevaluatedbyNHCandJHTstaff

•  ImplementationofsuccessfulprojectsarethencarriedoutbyNHC

staff/PIs

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Current Project Highlights - FY15-17: 8th round Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index: Dunion

Eyewall Replacement Cycle ARCHER: Wimmers

NRL web page upgrades: Cossuth

Rapid Intensity Forecasting: Jiang

RI SHIPS improvement: Rozoff

New JHT Projects - FY17-19: 9th round

ProjectTitle PrincipalInvestigator(s)

ImprovementstoOperationalStatisticalTropicalCycloneIntensityForecastModelsUsingWindStructureandEyePredictors

GalinaChirokova(CSU/CIRA),JohnKaplan(AOML/HRD)

Ensemble-basedPre-genesisWatchesandWarningsforAtlanticandNorthPacificTropicalCyclones

RussElsberry(UC-CS)

ImprovementsandExtensionstoanExistingProbabilisticTCGenesisForecastToolUsingandEnsembleofGlobalModels

BobHart(FSU),DanHalperin(Embry-Riddle)

EstimationofTropicalCycloneIntensityUsingSatellitePassiveMicrowaveObservations

HaiyanJiang(FloridaIntlUniv.)

TransitionofMachine-LearningBasedRapidIntensificationForecaststoOperations

AndrewMercerandKimberlyWood(MSU)

EvolutionaryProgrammingforProbabilisticTropicalCycloneIntensityForecast

PaulRoebberandClarkEvans(UW-Milwaukee)

New JHT Project Highlights TC Genesis probability: Hart/Halperin

Estimating TC intensity with PMW obs: Zhang

Improving intensity forecasts with size

predictors: Chirokova

Improving RI forecasts with machine learning: Mercer

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The Joint Hurricane Testbed

www.nhc.noaa.gov/jht

Rappaportet.al.,2012-BAMS

JasonSippel–NOAA/OAR/AOMLHurricaneResearchDivisionChrisLandsea–NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NationalHurricaneCenter

TheJHTisfundedbytheUSWeatherResearchPrograminNOAA/OAR'sOfficeofWeatherandAirQuality

98thAMSAnnualMee.ng-EighthConferenceonTransi.onofResearchtoOpera.ons-January10,2018