January FY2021 Economic Outlook & Revenue Assessment ......Receipts since 2009 12 Dec-2008 Jun-2009 Dec-2009 Jun-2010 Dec-2010 Jun-2011 Dec-2011 Jun-2012 Dec-2012 Jun-2013 Dec-2013
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tax.idaho.gov1
January FY2021 Economic Outlook & Revenue
Assessment Committee Presentation
Jeff McCray, CommissionerIdaho State Tax Commission
tax.idaho.gov
What you’ll see here…
• Historical IIT, BIT, Sales and Total ISTC collected tax revenues from FY2009 to present.
• Idaho population by age categories.• Factors impacting the economy and tax
revenues.• Tax Commission’s FY2021 & 2022 Green Sheet
projections. • Questions.
2
tax.idaho.gov
Facts and Other Constructs
• IIT Tax Year 2020 Individual & Business Income Tax return filings.
• Short AND Long-term effects of two stimulus funding rounds on economic recovery. Artificial? Sustainable?
• Unemployment settling and resetting.• Continued global & political uncertainty.• Business inventories are down in some sectors due to
increased sales AND reduced manufacturing workforce due to furloughs, layoffs, reduction in raw materials, and COVID infections.
• Vaccine rollout and effects.
3
tax.idaho.gov
Fiscal Year-to-Date Individual Income Tax Revenue Distributed to General Fund, July ’08 - Nov ’20
4
Jan-
2009
Jul-2
009
Jan-
2010
Jul-2
010
Jan-
2011
Jul-2
011
Jan-
2012
Jul-2
012
Jan-
2013
Jul-2
013
Jan-
2014
Jul-2
014
Jan-
2015
Jul-2
015
Jan-
2016
Jul-2
016
Jan-
2017
Jul-2
017
Jan-
2018
Jul-2
018
Jan-
2019
Jul-2
019
Jan-
2020
Jul-2
020
Jan-
2021
Jul-2
021
Month/Year
$0.0
$200.0
$400.0
$600.0
$800.0
$1,000.0
$1,200.0
$1,400.0
$1,600.0
$1,800.0
$2,000.0
$2,200.0S
FY C
umul
ativ
e IIT
Tot
al (i
n M
illio
ns)
ISTCProj.
Nov. data
tax.idaho.gov
Fiscal Year-to-Date Sales Tax Revenue Distributed to General Fund, July ’08 – Nov ‘20
(Does Not Include Sales Tax Credited to the Tax Relief Fund)
5
Jan-
2008
Jul-2
008
Jan-
2009
Jul-2
009
Jan-
2010
Jul-2
010
Jan-
2011
Jul-2
011
Jan-
2012
Jul-2
012
Jan-
2013
Jul-2
013
Jan-
2014
Jul-2
014
Jan-
2015
Jul-2
015
Jan-
2016
Jul-2
016
Jan-
2017
Jul-2
017
Jan-
2018
Jul-2
018
Jan-
2019
Jul-2
019
Jan-
2020
Jul-2
020
Jan-
2021
Jul-2
021
Month/Year
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000S
FY C
umul
ativ
e S
ales
Tax
Tot
al (i
n M
illio
ns)
ISTCProj.
Nov . data
tax.idaho.gov
Fiscal Year-to-Date Business Income Tax Revenue Distributed to General Fund, July ’08 – Nov ‘20
6
Jan-
2009
Jul-2
009
Jan-
2010
Jul-2
010
Jan-
2011
Jul-2
011
Jan-
2012
Jul-2
012
Jan-
2013
Jul-2
013
Jan-
2014
Jul-2
014
Jan-
2015
Jul-2
015
Jan-
2016
Jul-2
016
Jan-
2017
Jul-2
017
Jan-
2018
Jul-2
018
Jan-
2019
Jul-2
019
Jan-
2020
Jul-2
020
Jan-
2021
Jul-2
021
Month/Year
$0.0
$50.0
$100.0
$150.0
$200.0
$250.0
$300.0
$350.0S
FY C
um M
onth
ly B
IT T
otal
(in
Mill
ions
)
ISTCProj.
Nov . data
tax.idaho.gov
Fiscal Year-to-Date ISTC Total Revenue Distributed to General Fund, July ’08 – Nov ‘20
7
Jan-
2009
Jul-2
009
Jan-
2010
Jul-2
010
Jan-
2011
Jul-2
011
Jan-
2012
Jul-2
012
Jan-
2013
Jul-2
013
Jan-
2014
Jul-2
014
Jan-
2015
Jul-2
015
Jan-
2016
Jul-2
016
Jan-
2017
Jul-2
017
Jan-
2018
Jul-2
018
Jan-
2019
Jul-2
019
Jan-
2020
Jul-2
020
Jan-
2021
Jul-2
021
Month/Year
$0.0
$500.0
$1,000.0
$1,500.0
$2,000.0
$2,500.0
$3,000.0
$3,500.0
$4,000.0
$4,500.0S
FY C
umul
ativ
e To
tal (
in M
illio
ns)
ISTCProj.
Nov. data
tax.idaho.gov
Idaho State Tax Commission General Fund Estimates for FY2021 (in Millions)
8
Idaho State Tax Commission General Fund Estimate for Fiscal 2021 (M)
Tax TypeFY2020 Actuals
FY2021 Estimate Difference
Percent Change*
Individual Income Tax $1,905.2 $2,100.0 $194.8 10.2%Corporate Income Tax $243.3 $250.0 $6.7 2.7%Sales Tax ** $1,689.4 $1,800.0 $110.6 6.5%
Product TaxesCigarette $7.9 $8.7 $0.8 9.6%Tobacco Products $13.0 $13.2 $0.2 1.3%Beer $2.1 $2.2 $0.1 5.8%Wine $5.1 $5.4 $0.3 6.8%Product Tax Total * $28.1 $29.5 $1.4 5.0%
Other TaxesKWH $2.1 $2.6 $0.5 25.0%Mine License $0.1 $0.0 -$0.1 -67.6%Total * $2.1 $2.6 $0.5 21.7%ISTC Total * $3,868.2 $4,182.2 $313.9 8.1%
General Funds Not Collected by the ISTC $163.7 $163.7 $0.0 0.0%Grand Total * $4,031.9 $4,345.9 $313.9 7.8%* Some totals and "Percent Changes" will not appear accurate due to rounding to the nearest $100,000. ** Sales Tax does not include revenues credited to the tax relief fund.
tax.idaho.gov
Idaho State Tax Commission General Fund Estimates for FY2022 (in Millions)
9
Idaho State Tax Commission General Fund Estimate for Fiscal 2022 (M)
Tax TypeFY2021
EstimateFY2022
Estimate DifferencePercent
Change*Individual Income Tax $2,100.0 $2,200.0 $100.0 4.8%Corporate Income Tax $250.0 $260.0 $10.0 4.0%Sales Tax ** $1,800.0 $1,900.0 $100.0 5.6%
Product TaxesCigarette $8.7 $9.1 $0.4 5.0%Tobacco Products $13.2 $13.3 $0.1 0.6%Beer $2.2 $2.3 $0.1 5.0%Wine $5.4 $5.7 $0.3 5.0%Product Tax Total $29.5 $30.4 $0.9 3.1%
Other TaxesKWH $2.6 $2.7 $0.1 5.0%Mine License $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 5.0%Total * $2.6 $2.7 $0.1 5.0%ISTC Total * $4,182.2 $4,393.2 $211.0 5.0%
General Funds Not Collected by the ISTC $163.7 $171.9 $8.2 5.0%Grand Total * $4,345.9 $4,565.1 $219.2 5.0%* Some totals and "Percent Changes" will not appear accurate due to rounding to the nearest $100,000. ** Sales Tax does not include revenues credited to the tax relief fund.
tax.idaho.gov
Questions?
10
tax.idaho.gov
U.S. Census Bureau’s Idaho Population Estimates by Age for 2005 and 2019
11
tax.idaho.gov
Idaho Dept. of Labor Quarterly Wages & Idaho State Tax Commission Monthly Withholding
Receipts since 2009
12
Dec
-200
8Ju
n-20
09D
ec-2
009
Jun-
2010
Dec
-201
0Ju
n-20
11D
ec-2
011
Jun-
2012
Dec
-201
2Ju
n-20
13D
ec-2
013
Jun-
2014
Dec
-201
4Ju
n-20
15D
ec-2
015
Jun-
2016
Dec
-201
6Ju
n-20
17D
ec-2
017
Jun-
2018
Dec
-201
8Ju
n-20
19D
ec-2
019
Jun-
2020
Dec
-202
0Ju
n-20
21
Month/Year
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
$160W
ithho
ldin
g (M
) (pa
yrol
l, m
onth
ly, c
ompa
rativ
e)
$4,500
$5,000
$5,500
$6,000
$6,500
$7,000
$7,500
$8,000
$8,500
$9,000
$9,500
IDoL
Qua
rterly
Cov
ered
Wag
es (M
)
Monthly Payroll Withholding Quarterly IDoL Covered Wages
LatestTrends
tax.idaho.gov
Idaho Dept. of Labor Wage Data & Idaho State Tax Commission Withholding Receipts since 2009
13
Dec
-200
8Ju
n-20
09D
ec-2
009
Jun-
2010
Dec
-201
0Ju
n-20
11D
ec-2
011
Jun-
2012
Dec
-201
2Ju
n-20
13D
ec-2
013
Jun-
2014
Dec
-201
4Ju
n-20
15D
ec-2
015
Jun-
2016
Dec
-201
6Ju
n-20
17D
ec-2
017
Jun-
2018
Dec
-201
8Ju
n-20
19D
ec-2
019
Jun-
2020
Dec
-202
0Ju
n-20
21
Month/Year
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
$160W
ithho
ldin
g (M
) (pa
yrol
l, m
onth
ly, c
ompa
rativ
e)
$4,500
$5,000
$5,500
$6,000
$6,500
$7,000
$7,500
$8,000
$8,500
$9,000
$9,500
IDoL
Qua
rterly
Cov
ered
Wag
es (M
)
Monthly Payroll Withholding Quarterly IDoL Covered Wages
LatestTrends
tax.idaho.gov
U.S. Dept. of Labor Weekly Initial AND Continued Idaho Unemployment Claims
14
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