Transcript
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Chris Skinner
@FSClub and @Chris_Skinnerwww.thefinanser.com
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Don’t
TELL Mum
I work for
a BANK
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
“I’d shut Apple down and give the money
back to the shareholders”
…An Apple PowerBook G3 250 cost $5,700in
The same in Apple stock is worth $330,563
FTSE100: 5073 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 6435
The Bad News
The next financial crisis is in 2045
The Good News
We will all make a shedload of money
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Dodd-Frank has 400 rules
286 have deadlines
Regulators missed 1 in 4
Volcker rule delayed
FTSE100: 5845 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 13080 Hang Seng: 20900
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Massive FDI heads into:
Turkey
Indonesia
Vietnam
Mexico
South Africa
FTSE100: 6002 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 13125 Hang Seng: 22102
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
European Market Infrastructure Regulation
(EMIR) deadline is missed
…
SWIFT, FIX and FpML agree to disagree
FTSE100: 6205 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 13414 Hang Seng: 23450
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Yuan free floats
China sets up an Asian clearing system: the
Chinese Clearance Processing System
(CCPS)
FTSE100: 6106 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 13725 Hang Seng: 25106
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Volcker Rule leads to radical restructuring
of bulge bracket
FTSE100: 6724 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 14525 Hang Seng: 27250
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
TARGET2 for Securities finally goes live
FTSE100: 6770 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 14801 Hang Seng: 29001
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
The Eurozone divides as Spain defaults
FTSE100: 5910 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 14252 Hang Seng: 30542
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Vickers rule separates UK retail and
investment banks
FTSE100: 5910 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 14252 Hang Seng: 31260
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
China becomes #1 global economy
FTSE100: 5910 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 14252 Hang Seng: 33444
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Today
America
• Unemployment
• House prices
• Oil prices
• Government deficits
• Currency wars
China
• Maintaining growth
• Reducing US
dependency
• House price bubble
• Civil disobedience
• Free floating the Yuan
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Today
Eurozone
• Portugal
• Italy
• Ireland
• Greece
• Spain
Rest of World
• Social inclusion
• Social unrest
• Political instability
• Economic inbalances
• Resources
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Today
CIVETS
• Columbia
• Indonesia
• Vietnam
• Egypt
• Turkey
• South Africa
The Growth8
• Brazil
• Russia
• India
• China
• Indonesia
• Vietnam
• Mexico
• Turkey
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Today
• Restoring Financial Stability
• Setting the Right Green
Agenda
• Exercising Smart Power
• Reimagining Global Trade
• Navigating China’s Rise
• Deciphering “Russia, Inc.”
• Engaging an Emerging India
• Revitalizing Ties to Latin
America
• Supporting Africa’s Growth
Turnaround
• Pursuing a Positive Agenda
for the Middle East
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Reserve Bank of India launch alternative
clearing system to CCPS, RBIXP
FTSE100: 7007 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 16021 Hang Seng: 37450
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
China makes all clearing of yuan mandatory
through CCPS
FTSE100: 7232 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 16805 Hang Seng: 39121
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
The euro ceases to trade as a national
currency in the ‘soft’eurozone countries, but
continues as a denominated trading currency
FTSE100: 7700 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17391 Hang Seng: 41001
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
America’s new President Sheen (yes,
Charlie) takes the oath of office
FTSE100: 8001 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17917 Hang Seng: 42223
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
America’s new President Sheen (yes,
Charlie) takes the oath of office
FTSE100: 8001 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 17917 Hang Seng: 42223
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
The USA requests that SWIFT remove
North Korean banks from the network
…
EU forces SWIFT to agree
…
China develops alternative to SWIFT
FTSE100: 8214 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 19092 Hang Seng: 44141
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Great returns from investments in Latam,
new Asian and emerging Africa
…
Increased social unrest in developed
markets
FTSE100: 8575 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 20007 Hang Seng: 45732
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Julian Assange (wikileaks)
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Aaron Barr
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Mark Zuckerberg (facebook)
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Mohamed Bouzzazi
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Molly Katchpole
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Satoshi Nakamoto (bitcoin)
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
OWS picture
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
India and China impose trade sanctions
against each other over Nepal
FTSE100: 11330 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25115 Hang Seng: 49954
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Tensions in the Middle East become
extreme as alternative fuels undermine oil
FTSE100: 11501 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25473 Hang Seng: 51008
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
The African Union Alliance is seen as the
world’s sixth largest economy
FTSE100: 11387 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25761 Hang Seng: 53756
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
China’s RMB overtakes the dollar as the
world's major reserve currency[2012: 0.33% of world payments]
FTSE100: 11422 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24992 Hang Seng: 56232
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
The Chinese CCPS and regional currency
systems take over from the DTCC and SWIFT,
in terms of global currency and trade volumes
…
India’s RBIX is a close fourth
FTSE100: 11757 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 25028 Hang Seng: 58732
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
The UK government complete the
rehabilitation of the Royal Bank of Scotland
FTSE100: 11761 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 26163 Hang Seng: 59999
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Today
• Macro-economic risk
• Credit risk
• Liquidity
• Capital availability
• Political interference
• Regulation
• Profitability
• Derivatives
• Corporate governance
• Quality of risk management
• Dodd-Frank
• Volcker
• Durbin
• Vickers
• De Laroisiere
• Lagarde
• Geithner
• Bernanke
• King
• Dragi
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
European Economic & Monetary Union is
reworked into the European Regional Trade
Agreement (ERTA)
FTSE LATIBEX: 15121 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24031 Hang Seng: 61992
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Brazil, Colombia and Mexico agree a new
trade pact with India
FTSE LATIBEX: 15741 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24532 Hang Seng: 62017
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
America and China agree a new currency
union, giving birth to the Renminbuck
FTSE LATIBEX: 16362 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 24815 Hang Seng: 63427
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Iran attacks Israel with a nuclear strike
upon Jerusalem
FTSE LATIBEX: 16857 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 19156 Hang Seng: 64152
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
China imposes economic sanctions against
India, as India’s economy reaches #2
FTSE LATIBEX: 16145 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 19353 Hang Seng: 63547
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Indian cyberterrorists destroy the CCPS
FTSE LATIBEX: 8352 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 14758 Hang Seng: 38132
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
The Madness of Crowds
• Leverage
• Complexity
• Risk
• Herd Mentality
2045 High Low
Dow Jones Industrial Average 14758 24815, 2042 13080, 2012
Hang Seng 38132 63427, 2043 20900 2012
FTSE100 6007 11757, 2038 5845, 2012
FTSE LATIBEX: 8352 16857, 2044
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
‘My daughter asked me when she came home
from school, “What’s the financial crisis?” and
I said, it’s something that happens every five
to seven years.’
Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEO
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
“A mega financial crisis is becoming far more
frequent and likely to occur, due to globally
connected risk and greed.”
Chris Skinner
200 BC – 300 AD BOOM (500) – the Roman Empire
300 – 1100 BUST (800)
1100 – 1345 BOOM (245) - Renaissance
1345 – 1637 BUST (292)
1637 – 1720 BOOM (83) – Armada and New Worlds
1720 – 1830 BUST (110)
1830 – 1929 BOOM (99) – Industrial Revolution
1929 – 1955 BUST (26)
1955 – 2008 BOOM (53) – Technology Revolution
2008 – 2020 BUST (12)
2020 – 2045 BOOM (25) – West moves East
2045 BUST
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
“You can never plan the future by the past.”
Edmund Burke, 1729 – 1797
“My role is find the chink in the regulator’s
armour.”
Salomon Smith Barney General Counsel, 1989
“Greed is good.”
Michael Douglas as Gordon Gecko in
Wall Street, 1987
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Today
Invest in:
• Mexico
• Colombia
• Indonesia
• Vietnam
• Turkey
• South Africa
Buy
• Next generation tech
stocks, including
twitter and facebook
• iPads and knowledge
• Chris Skinner’s books
© Chris Skinner. All rights reserved.
Chris Skinner
@FSClub and @Chris_Skinnerwww.thefinanser.com
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