Iscram09 Grant Ppr248 Mixed Rational Naturalistic Ds Final Slides 090506

Netherlands Defence Academy

Towards mixed rational-

naturalistic decision support

Prof. dr. T.J. GrantT: +31 (0)76 52 73261 (Mon-Wed)

M: +31 (0)638 193 749

TJ.Grant@nlda.nl

NLDA

Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

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Outline

Goal:• To propose that Command & Control (C2) system users should be provided with mix of rational-naturalistic decision support (DS) tools

Overview:• Background• Decision-making & planning• Current C2 systems• Mixed C2 toolset• Conclusions

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Background (1)

NECS-G1 research project:• “Beyond Situation Awareness: closing OODA loop”

• Research question:Is it advantageous in terms of operational agility to

construct NEC-era C2 systems based on human

users’ thinking processes?

• Progress:Benchmarked OODA process model

Rational reconstructed OODA

OODA-RR test-bed applied to computer intrusion

• Next step:Develop 2G test-bed & apply to 9/11 case

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Background (2)

Research problem:

• Current C2 systems emphasize RDM:Select best immediate option

Proven optimal

Requires perfect information & no time pressure

• Research shows users prefer NDM:Match current situation to known patterns

Applies users’ experience

Fast & tolerant of incomplete information

• Can we provide mixed RDM-NDM toolset?Best of both worlds

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Background (3)

Research reported here:

• Study DS tools in current C2 systems

• Using Control Centre Visit Checklist (CCVC):Operational-view functions:• Observe, Orient, Sensemaking, Plan, Decide, Act

Systems-view functions:• Data acquisition

• Status monitoring

• Situation assessment

• Abnormality detection, isolation, & recovery

• Planning & scheduling

• Prediction

• Procedure execution

• Commanding

Grant, 2008

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Decision making & planning (1)

Characteristics of decision-making environment:• Ill-defined goals & ill-structured tasks

• Uncertainty, ambiguity, & missing data

• Shifting & competing goals

• Dynamic & continually changing conditions

• Action-feedback loops (real-time reactions)

• Time stress

• High stakes

• Multiple players

• Organisational goals & norms

• Experienced decision makers

Klein & Klinger, 1991

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Decision making & planning (2)

Feature Rational DMa.k.a. analytic

Naturalistic DMa.k.a. intuitive

Decision maker Novice or expert Expert

Environment Perfect information

Unlimited time

Changing goals & situation

Time pressure / stress

Inputs Set of options & attributes

All attribute-values

Objective function

Current situation

Patterns from experience

Option

construction

Score options & compare

Select best option

Match situation to patterns

Construct single option

Selection Optimizing Satisficing (“good enough”)

Key processes Option selection Situation assessment

Pattern matching

Story generation & analogy

Mental simulation

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Decision making & planning (3)

Possible mixtures:

• RDM for short-listing; NDM for final choice

• Construct single option & use RDM as checklist

• Drills for decision-making under stress:Rational, trained actions

Naturalistic recall

Providing both RDM & NDM tools:

• User free to choose

• Flexibility in high-stake situations

NLDA

Grant: Rational-naturalistic decision support for C2

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Current C2 systems (1)

ISIS

BMS

CMS

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Current C2 systems (2)

OODA-RR COSPOL ISIS BMS CMS TOPFAS

Observing DA P Y Y P

Orienting SM Y Y Y Y

Orienting SA N N Y N

Orienting AD N N Y N

- GR P P P (CEC) Y

Deciding AI N N Y N

Sensemaking AR N N N N

Planning PS P P N Y

Planning PR N N N N (Gamma)

Acting PE N N N N

Acting CO P P Y P

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Current C2 systems (3)

NDM cognitive process ISIS BMS CMS TOPFAS

Identifying situation:

• Feature matching N N Y N

• Holistic / pattern matching N N Y N

Diagnosing situation:

• Information gathering P Y Y P

• Belief updating P P Y N

• Situation awareness Y Y Y Y

• Story generation P P N Y

• Analogical reasoning N N N P

Generating option:

• Single option construction N N P P

Evaluation:

• Mental simulation N N N N

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Mixed toolset (1)

Use existing RDM tools unchanged:

• Data acquisition

• Map display

• Data fusion

• Procedure execution

• Commanding

Enhance existing RDM tools:

• ORBAT browser

• Planning tool

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Mixed toolset (2)

Develop NDM tools for:

• Situation matching

• Generating information requirements

• Alarming / alerting

• Safeing

• Diagnosis / prognosis

• War-gaming

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Mixed toolset (3)Using toolset during planning process:

1. Understanding mission:Data acquisition; ORBAT; map display

2. Situation assessment:Data acquisition; data fusion; situation matching; diagnosis; alarming; safeing

3. Generating concept COAs:Planning

4. Define success criteria:Planning

5. Develop credible plan:Planning; map display; ORBAT

6. Simulate:War-gaming; map display

7. Decide:Map display

8. Develop mission order:Commanding; ORBAT; procedure executor

9. Opportunities for proactive DM:Planning; map display

Thunholm, 2006

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Conclusions

Conclusions:

• Studied four C2 systems

• Argued for providing mixed RDM-NDM tool-set

Limitations:

• Few C2 systems studied; no air force system

• Proposed enhancements & tools not yet implemented

Further study needed of:

• Additional C2 systems

• Refining CCVC to include NDM items

• Relationship between C2 and information gathering

• Constructing 2nd generation test-bed for 9/11 case

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Any questions?