Introduction to Climate Change and its Impact on Society Jagadish Shukla Center of Ocean-Land- Atmosphere studies Lecture2: Aug 28, 2008 CLIM 101: Weather,
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Introduction to Climate Change Introduction to Climate Change and its Impact on Societyand its Impact on Society
Jagadish ShuklaJagadish Shukla
Center of Ocean-Land-Atmosphere studies
Lecture2: Aug 28, 2008
CLIM 101: Weather, Climate and Global Society
The Climate of a Planet Depends On …The Climate of a Planet Depends On …1. Energy from the Sun
(energy from the interior)
2. Planetary Albedo
3. Speed of Planet’s Rotation
4. Mass of the Planet
5. Radius of the Planet
6. Atmospheric Composition
7. Ocean-Land, Topography
S
M
a
H2O, CO2, O3, clouds
h*
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Earth’s Energy BalanceEarth’s Energy Balance
Solar Radiation
S = 1380 Wm-2
(plane, parallel)
Assume radiative equilibrium, so that
INCOMING ENERGY = OUTGOING ENERGY
Measured albedo () = 0.31Measured planetary E = 237 Wm-2
Implied TE = 255 K
Measured surface Es = 390 Wm-2
Atmosphere absorbs 153 Wm-2
Measured Ts = 288 K
Planetary Emission
Ts (288K) > Te (255K) … Greenhouse Effect (H2O, CO2)Life on planet Earth!
Recent analyses of satellite measurements do not indicate a long-term trend in solar irradiance (the amount of energy received by the sun), Frohlich and Lean (2005)
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Solar IrradianceSolar Irradiance
Examples of Short-Term Climate Variability
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1998 JFM SST [oC]
JFM SST Climatology [oC]
1998 JFM SST Anomaly [oC]
El Nino/Southern OscillationEl Nino/Southern Oscillation
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Summer 2003 European Heat Wave: Summer 2003 European Heat Wave: Result of Global Warming? Result of Global Warming?
• The immediate cause of the heat-wave was a persistent high pressure center over Northwest Europe.
• There is currently no evidence that human influence on climate makes such circulation patterns more likely.
Summer 2003 temperatures relative to 2000-2004
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Greenland Grace monthly mass solutions. For the entire Greenland ice sheet, for April 2002 to April 2006, after scaling the results and removing the mean. The blue error bars include only the contributions from uncertainties in the GRACE gravity fields. Velicogna and Wahr (2006)
Greenland Ice MassGreenland Ice Mass
Thanks: R. Cicerone
Examples of Long-Term Climate Variability
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1 Ma1 Ma
• Mechanism: Orbital Parameters
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120 ka120 ka
• Mechanism: Orbital ParametersCenter of Ocean-Land-
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18 ka18 ka
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LAST LAST TWO MILLENIATWO MILLENIA OR SO … OR SO …
2000 Year Northern Hemisphere Reconstruction of Surface Air Temperatures2000 Year Northern Hemisphere Reconstruction of Surface Air Temperatures
Tem
per
atu
re A
nom
aly
(oC
)
LAST CENTURY OR SO …LAST CENTURY OR SO …
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Carbon CycleCarbon CycleCurrent Global Carbon Cycle (2000-2005)Current Global Carbon Cycle (2000-2005)
Pools of carbon are in Gt and annual fluxed in Gt C y-1. Background or pre-anthropogenic pools and fluxes are in black. The human perturbation to the pools and fluxed are in red. (updated from Sabine et al. 2004)
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Net CO2 FluxNet CO2 Flux
Takahashi et al. 2002
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CO2 emissions (Gigatons of Carbon, Gt C), IPCC 20071990: 6.4 Gt C (=23.5 Gt CO2 ), 2000-2005: 7.2 Gt C (=26.4 Gt CO2)
Monthly Mean Carbon DioxideMonthly Mean Carbon DioxideNOAA CMDL Carbon Cycle Greenhouse GasesNOAA CMDL Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases
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Atmospheric carbon dioxide mixing ratios determined from the continuous monitoring programs at the 4 NOAA CMDL baseline observations. Principal investigator: Dr. Pieter Tans. NOAA CMDL Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases. Boulder, Colorado. (303) 497-6678
Courtesy of UCAR
1.0º C
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WarmingWarming
1. Greenhouse gases (CO1. Greenhouse gases (CO22, CH, CH44, N, N22O)O)• CO2: Carbon Dioxide : Emission from fossil fuel• CH4: Methane : Agriculture• N2O: Nitrous Oxide
2. Land use change2. Land use change
CoolingCooling
1.1. AerosolsAerosols• Man made/Natural• Volcanoes
※※Rate of increase of GHG is largest in 10,000 yearsRate of increase of GHG is largest in 10,000 years
(Net) Global Warming (Net) Global Warming
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Global mean, volume mean ocean Global mean, volume mean ocean temperaturetemperatureCourtesy of Tom Delworth (GFDL)
GFDL Model Simulations
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Mean of 15 Models Surface Air Temperature Mean of 15 Models Surface Air Temperature DifferenceDifference(Sresa1b YR 71-100) minus (20c3m 1969-98), Global Average = (Sresa1b YR 71-100) minus (20c3m 1969-98), Global Average =
2.612.61
Impact of Weather and Climate Impact of Weather and Climate Variations on SocietyVariations on Society
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Area Area impactedimpactedbybyNargisNargis
Population affected by Population affected by NARGISNARGIS
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Recent Increasing Trends in Recent Increasing Trends in Frequency of Natural Frequency of Natural
HazardsHazards
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Windstorms Floods
Extreme Heat Events Drought
Great Natural Disasters Great Natural Disasters 1950 – 20051950 – 2005
Number of eventsNumber of events
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1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Others (Heat wave, cold wave, forest fire)
Flood
StormEarthquake/tsunami, volcanic eruption
© 2006 NatCatSERVICE, Geo Risks Research, Munich Re
Weather, Climate and Global Society• Weather, climate and agricultureWeather, climate and agriculture
• Weather, climate and energyWeather, climate and energy
• Weather, climate and transportationWeather, climate and transportation
• Weather, climate and healthWeather, climate and health
• Weather, climate and architectureWeather, climate and architecture
• Weather, climate and cultureWeather, climate and culture
• Weather, climate and sustainabilityWeather, climate and sustainability
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HumansEcosystems
WeatherClimate
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World PopulationWorld PopulationWorld Population from AD 1 to 2002
Source: Data from Maddison (2001), Calculated using data from Maddison (2002)
World Income from 1500 to 2001
World Income per Capita from 1500 to 2001
Since 1750, population increased 10 times; Production per person also increased 10 times; Therefore, total world economic production increased 100 times.
Therefore, the impact of human activity on life-sustaining system on earth increased enormously.
Planet under StressPlanet under Stress
‘Common Wealth’ by Jeffrey Sachs, 2008
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Wagner, 2002
U. S. Flow of Raw Materials U. S. Flow of Raw Materials by weight 1900-2000by weight 1900-2000
The use of raw materials in the U. S. increased dramatically during the last 100 years
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Global PovertyGlobal Poverty
‘Common Wealth’ by Jeffrey Sachs, 2008
From 1820 to 1992
Global Well-Being (sustainability, security
and the future of civilization)
The Global ChallengeThe Global Challenge
Inequality and Extreme Poverty
Human PopulationGrowth
EnvironmentalDegradation
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THANK YOU!
ANY QUESTIONS?
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