International 101 - The Global Economic Landscape (Dr. Ted C. Jones)

Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist

Stewart Title Guaranty Company

The Global

Economic Landscape

Global 2014 GDP Forecasts

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/weodata/weoselgr.aspx

Economic Information

Country Specific

GDP Projections

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2014/update/02/

Be Informed

http://www.census.gov/population/international/

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/

New Zealand Transaction Costs

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/faq/guide-transaction-costs

U.S. Current Positives

• More Jobs Than Anytime in History

• YTD 58% of New Jobs Pay More • Interest Rates Highly Affordable • Significant Demographic Demand

129

131

133

135

137

139

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Jobs (Thousands) Seasonally Adjusted

1.93% Prior 12 Months 214,000 Net New Jobs in October 2.643 Million in Past 12-Months

U.S. Job Numbers

U.S. Average Number of New Jobs Per Month – Prior 12 Months

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

15

Jobs - Thousands

220

Job Growth by State

September Data

Total

Percent New Jobs Jobs

Rank State Growth

1 North Dakota 5.09% 22.8 470.4

2 Texas 3.67% 413.7 11,672.2

3 Utah 3.58% 46.3 1,340.5

4 Nevada 3.24% 38.2 1,217.9

5 Delaware 2.94% 12.6 441.1

6 Colorado 2.81% 67.4 2,464.5

7 Florida 2.70% 205.6 7,827.2

8 North Carolina 2.67% 108.5 4,170.0

9 Oregon 2.45% 41.2 1,722.6

10 South Carolina 2.27% 43.2 1,946.2

12 Months

Thousands

• 2.923 million total jobs in the MSA – most in history

• 120,700 net new jobs in prior 12 months -- +4.21 percent

• Home sales up 4.27% Y-O-Y 12-month moving average Selling as many homes today as at the subprime lending peak under

the most restrictive lending ever seen

• Average price $257,000 up 9.33% Y-O-Y 12-month moving average

• Median price $190,100 up 9.60% Y-O-Y 12-month moving average

• 2.9 months inventory available for sale – 6 months considered normal

• 60,505 new permits equates 1.86 new jobs per new dwelling

1.25 to 1.50 net new jobs per new dwelling considered normal

• 10th best trailing 12 months commercial sales tally in last 57 quarters

Houston Summary Points November 2014

2,400

2,500

2,600

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Jobs (Thousands) Seasonally Adjusted

4.31% Prior 12 Months 120,700 Net New Jobs

Houston MSA Job Numbers

Houston Existing Home Prices

$0

$25

$50

$75

$100

$125

$150

$175

$200

$225

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Median Price $ Thousands

Houston Association of REALTORS®

Houston MSA Residential Building Permits

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,00099

'00

'01

'02

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14f

Single Family Multifamily

Number of Dwelling Units

2014 12-Months Ending

August 2014

1.86 Net New Jobs Per New Dwelling Unit in Latest 12-Months

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

U.S. Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume

$ Billions – Trailing 12 Months

+12.27%

Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Houston Commercial Real Estate Sales Volume

$ Billions – Trailing 12 Months

-14.2% Year Over Year

Property and Portfolio Sales $2.5 Million and Up

Number Volume

Market Properties $ Millions

Canada 872 $23,401.0

China 80 $7,640.2

Norway 82 $6,504.7

Singapore 20 $4,758.1

Switzerland 102 $4,682.5

Germany 86 $4,616.4

Japan 58 $4,050.1

Israel 103 $3,784.5

Hong Kong 54 $3,101.5

Other 601 $25,717.5

Total 2,058 $88,256.4

Top Foreign Buyer Market Buyers

Offshore Buyers of US Commercial Real Estate – Latest 24 Months

Offshore Buyers of US Commercial Real Estate – Latest 24 Months

Number Volume

Market Properties $ Millions

Manhattan 110 $19,570.7

Los Angeles 74 $8,471.1

Boston 53 $6,192.6

Chicago 98 $4,373.1

Washington, DC 34 $4,290.6

San Francisco 51 $3,983.6

Hawaii 13 $2,990.1

Houston 77 $2,529.7

Dallas 84 $1,938.5

Other 1,464 $33,916.4

Total 2,058 $88,256.4

Top Foreign Buyer Market Destinations

Ted C. Jones, PhD Chief Economist

Stewart Title Guaranty Company 1980 Post Oak Blvd., Suite 300 Houston, Texas 77056 United States of America Email: ted@stewart.com Office 713.625.8014

Twitter – DrTCJ blog.stewart.com/ted stewart.com