Transcript
Towards a Brighter Greener India
Frost & Sullivan’s 2nd Annual Executive Congress on LED
Lighting
Delhi
November 16, 2011
2
Advantage India
02468
109.7 9
6.78 8.5 8.3
GDP Growth (%)
Robust GDP Huge Domestic Market
� 560 million consumers in 20-49 age
group expected by 2015.
� 5th largest consumer market by
2025.
� Increased disposable incomes &
changing lifestyles.
Expanding Infrastructure
� Infrastructure spend to be the biggest
thrust in coming years
� Investment in infrastructure in past five
years doubled from 4% to 8% of GDP
�US$ 1 trillion investment proposed for
2012-17.
Pro Investment Environment
� 100% FDI permitted in most
sectors under automatic
route.
� Several incentives to
encourage investment and
attract capital
Rich Human Capital
� Third largest pool of scientific &
technical manpower.
� Large English speaking population
� Over 380 universities (11,200 colleges).
� 1,500 research institutions and 9,000
PhDs.
� Over 200,000 engineering graduates
produced annually.
3rd Most
Attractive
FDI
Location *
Transparency
� RTI Act
� Corporate Governance
Initiatives
� Road Map for DTC, GST
* AT Kearney FDI Confidence Index, 2010
To Surpass Japan as
the 3rd Largest
Economy (PPP) in
2011
3
Golden Decade of Indian Electronics Industry
0
50
100
2009 2010 2011 2012
51
.1
65
.1
81
.1 96
.5
29
.4 36
43
.8 53
.4
Re
ven
ue
s ($
Bil
lio
n)
Indian Electronics Market Revenues, 2009-
2012
TM
TAM
0
100
200
300
400
500
2015 2020
17
3.7
44
1.3
10
1.7
32
8.1
Re
ven
ue
s ($
Bil
lio
n)
Indian Electronics Market Revenues, 2015,
2020
TM
TAM
TM growth rates to
continue;
Electronics
manufacturing
policy to boost TAMContribution to Global Industry to touch 15 percent
4-5 Electronics Clusters ; Labs to Fabs comprehensive Infrastructure
2-3 Semiconductor Fabs; Developed Ecosystem
Designed, Developed and Made in India Electronic Products to Rule the World
India to be the hub for Electronics Design and Manufacturing
20
20
: In
dia
’s
Ele
ctro
nic
s In
du
stry
Solar
Wireless
LED Nano
Technology
Automation
4
India Lighting Industry Overview
Indian Lighting Industry
Category 2010 Revenues ($ Million)
Lamps 929.26
Luminaires /
Fixtures488.90
Gears, Drivers
& Controls310.00
Total 1728.16
Source: Frost & Sullivan
45.5LED
26.6HID
17.9Fluorescent
(14.8)Incandescent
Growth TrendCAGR
2010-2015 (%)
Segment
Source: Frost & Sullivan
• Price Advantage & Brand Image are crucial competitive
factors in the highly competitive Indian Lighting Market.
• LEDs are garnering significant interest and playing a vital
role in LEED certified buildings in India.
• Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) working with Lighting
associations to define standards, testing protocols and
certifying parameters for different lighting applications.
• Star rating labels to be made mandatory for
luminaires/lamps for indoor commercial and outdoor lighting
applications.
Indian Lighting Market
expected to grow at 12-
15% CAGR from 2010 to
2020.
LED Lamps & Luminaires
exhibit strongest growth
trends among all lighting
technologies.
5
India LED Lighting Market
The revenue growth is attributed to the implementation in Street Light applications and the
steady demand from the Railways sector. Demand from the Street lighting applications and
Railways sector constituted over 60 percent of the total demand in 2010.
CAGR
Till 2015 Till 2018
45.53 % 47.76 %
Total LED Lighting Market: Revenue Forecast (India), 2009 - 2018
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Year
Reven
ue (
$ m
illio
n)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Gro
wth
Rate
(%
)
Revenues (in $ mil lion) Growth Rate (%)
$73.3M
$1.66B
6
0.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1000.00
1200.00
1400.00
1600.00
1800.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Re
ve
nu
es
($ M
illi
on
)
Indian LED Lighting Market: Revenue Forecasts by Applications (2009-2018)
Others
Automotive
Streetlight
Railways
Industrial
Outdoor
Indoor
Demand Areas
Street Light, Railways
- Short term Target;
Automotive, Industrial
and Outdoor - Long
term
7
Drivers & Restraints
Huge Energy
SavingsGovernment
InitiativesDesign Flexibility
Cleanest and
Green lighting
technology
Least total cost
of Ownership
Operational life of
white LED lamps is
100,000 hours; Av. life
of an incandescent
bulb is just 1000 hours.
A building’s carbon
footprint from lighting can
be reduced by 68% by
replacing all incandescent
lamps with LED lamps.
Standards Definition;
Setting up of Testing
Centers; Influencing
adoption in Government
buildings and for Street
Lights
Despite high initial cost,
LED lamps have longer
life and need minimal
maintenance.
High Initial
investment Lack of Standards
Economies of scale
hinders local
manufacturing
Competition
from sub
standard cheap
imports
Once standards are
defined, adoption rates
shall increase across
users and this will drive
up the EoS.
The absence of standards for different type of LED
lighting products is restricting adoption through
prevalence of sub standard products.
The price of LED lights are
4 times more than
conventional lighting
technologies.
Sub standard Chinese /
Taiwanese imports are
flooding the market and
are bought increasingly
because of their low cost.
Re
stra
ints
Dri
ve
rs
8
Opportunities Galore
Short term & Long term opportunities in different applications
Rev
en
ue
Period of Impact
Short Term2011
Long Term2020
High
Low
Medium Term2015
Medium
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
Railways
Government Buildings
Street Light
Automotive
Residential
Industrial
Commercial
9
High Potent Applications for the Short Term
Railways – Signals,
Displays
Street Lighting – On
Grid
Hotels / Restaurants
– Outdoor -
Architectural
Industrial – General
Purpose
2015
CAGR 47.5%
Rev $262.4 M
2015
CAGR 47.5%
Rev $34.4 M
2015
CAGR 47.5%
Rev $22.5 M
2015
CAGR 47.5%
Rev $36.7 M
Application Product Type Market Potential
10
High Potent Applications for the Long Term
Hotels / Restaurants
- Indoor
Street Lighting – Off
Grid
Automotive
Shops / Malls -
Indoor
2018
CAGR 51.8%
Rev $58.9 M
2018
CAGR 48.9%
Rev $56.8 M
2018
CAGR 42%
Rev $121.6M
2018
CAGR 45.8%
Rev $40.7 M
Application Product Type Market Potential
11
The Path to Success for India’s LED Lighting Industry
Defining Standards
Encouragement for Indigenous Manufacturing
Ecosystem Development
Influencing Adoption
Government and Industry together Hold the Key to Success
12
For more Information…..
Frost & Sullivan’s report on the Indian LED Lighting Market – the
only exhaustive market analysis report on the Indian LED Lighting market.
Thank You!
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