India-China Relations: The New Himalayas and the Global Raja-Mandala (2010)

The New Himalayas and the Global Raja-Mandala

Nitin Pai

Xuanzang in India 629-645

High Tide

649 AD

The Year China first Invaded India

648 : Wang Xuance’s embassy to India

1200 Tibetan warriors7000 Nepali horsemen

3000 Indians killed10,000 thrown into river

‘Thereupon, India was overawed.’ Standard Tang History

The New Himalayas and the Global Raja-Mandala

Under the new Himalayas

The New Raja Mandala

power projection

markets & maritime

new spaces

human security

Policy implications

Outline

Big differences at a fundamental level

Why might this have happened?

World: Political World: Political

Wang framework

Ba framework

The Middle KingdomMindset

From the earliest times, India lacked interest in the balance of power outside its own national frontiers. While China was continuously watchful of developments across its land frontiers and had developed a very efficient system of diplomatic relationship on a continental basis, the Indian idea of diplomacy was confined to states within the geographical limits of India

K M Panikkar

Harsha’s death

Succession struggle

Buddhists v Brahmins

Politics in Northern India

645 AD

Songsten Gyampo & Tang Taizong enter into an alliance (641-645)

648 : Wang Xuance’s embassy to India

1200 Tibetan warriors7000 Nepali horsemen

3000 Indians killed10,000 thrown into river

This was a rare event

The HimalayanBarrier

20th century breaches the barrier

Large scale troop movements by land and air become feasible

1940s 1970s

Old barrier comes down

New barrier goes up

1960s

Clash

The 20th Century

“War is the failure of strategy”

Conventional deterrence

Nuclear deterrence

Risks of a India-US alliance

Risks to its economic growth

Kautilyan dynamic is still at work, butChina is unlikely to want a border war

Corollary?

The game is now globalThe New Raja Mandala

Under the new Himalayas

The New Raja Mandala

power projection

markets & maritime

new spaces

human security

Policy implications

Outline

Dependence on fuel imports

Fuel supply cartelised (OPEC, NSG etc)

So, diversification, diversification, diversification

Energy conundrum

Net Oil Import Dependence

World Energy Outlook 2009

67%

83%

100%

1981-82 1983-84 1985-86 1987-88 1989-90 1991-92 1993-94 1995-96 1997-98 1999-00 2001-02 2003-04 2005-06

Exports by Sea Imports by Sea Seaborne trade as % of total trade

Most of India’s trade is seaborne

Data: Indicus Analytics Markets & Maritime go together

Wishfulness Strategy

Iran-Pakistan-Indiagas pipeline

Energy Security: Infrastructure & Markets

Singapore & Indonesia will be adversely affected

India will sit astride the new route but increased presence of foreign navies

An old idea: China’s turn

China’s trade from Europe, Africa and Middle East could bypass India

Possibility that it will be available for shipping for several weeks a year

Improves China’s access, but under Russian influence

The Northern Sea Route

Under the new Himalayas

The New Raja Mandala

power projection

markets & maritime

new spaces

human security

Policy implications

Outline

Absence Projection

Sep 2007 Oct 2008

Absence Projection

Balance of Power in SE

Asia

Balance of Power in NE

Africa

Post-tsunami credibilitydiluted

India is a credible player

China’s bandwagon strengthens

China wants to get in

Under the new Himalayas

The New Raja Mandala

power projection

markets & maritime

arms & trade

human security

Policy implications

Outline

Human security ‘Unconventional’ transnational security threats

Plausible scenarios

Natural Disasters

Pandemics

Mass political violence/genocide

Migration dynamics & global interests introduce political imperative to intervene

heavily populated parts of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Pakistan (as indeed,

several parts of India).

Extreme weather. In addition, climate change risks worsening the impact of natural

disasters like cyclones, floods and droughts that affect the subcontinent. This could

take several forms: increasing the intensity of cyclones or floods, changing the

geographical area where these occur, occurring at increased frequencies and , in

general, complicating adaptation efforts. For instance, a cyclone of record strength

striking a river delta that is itself deluged as a result of glacial recession would

transform the disaster into a much more complicated one.

Changing the dynamics of conflicts

Global climate change, by its very nature, is a trans-national phenomenon. While

its impacts will not respect political frontiers, the sources of climate-related problems

and the those at risk from them might well be on different sides of national

boundaries. This situation is further complicated when the boundaries themselves

are unclear, contested or both. As states react to climate change issues in line with

their self-interests, asymmetries in risk perceptions and the existence of unresolved

inter-state disputes are likely to complicate ongoing conflicts. The following table

interposes the impact mechanisms of climate change against the ongoing conflict

dynamics in South Asia.

Conflict system/

Impact

mechanism

Glacial

recession

Rising sea

levels

Extreme

weather

Net assessment

Jammu & Kashmir High - Medium Risk of war, motivated in part by the quest

for water resources

India-China border High - Medium Risk of natural disasters in India, worsening

India-China relations

Bangladesh !ethnic

invasion"

High High High Risk of mass migration into India

Pakistani

separatism

High Medium Medium Risk of existential crisis in Pakistan, and of

ethnic conflict

Sri Lankan civil war - High Medium Risk of mass migration, and of ethnic conflict

Nepal civil war High - High Risk of natural disasters and mass migration

into India due to social unrest

Table 1: Impact of climate change on ongoing conflicts in the Indian subcontinent

Climate change and national security

3 No 1 April 2008

Climate change can exacerbate conflict systems

What it means for military preparedness?

Expeditionary capability

Strategic partnerships

Military co-operation capital

Interoperability

India must remain a credible provider of human security across its shores

Under the new Himalayas

The New Raja Mandala

power projection

markets & maritime

new spaces

human security

Policy implications

Outline

New spaces Dealing with the asymmetric

China’s asymmetric strategy

Why PLAN has a submarine focused strategy?

Why did China shoot down one of its own satellites?

Google pulls out of China

Why is China selling nuclear reactors to Pakistan?

These capabilities can be used to target India too

Under the new Himalayas

The New Raja Mandala

power projection

markets & maritime

new spaces

human security

Policy implications

Outline

Broadly...

The New Himalayas must be high

Relative power dynamic suggests India must act as a geopolitical swing power

India

China US

2004

2009

balance

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Power Projection

Pax Indica in the immediate maritime neighbourhood

Deep partnerships in the extended maritime domain(footholds, forward bases, supply depots)

Economic security

Promotion of unhindered access to international markets: for fuel, goods & services

An open but cautious approach towards IT imports from China is warranted: regulators need help from IT industry

Military capacity

Heavy lift over long distances

Amphibious capacity /CIMPCOR

Policy review on overseas military deployments

A foreign policy orchestra

Policy coordination: External Affairs + Finance + Commerce + Defence Ministry- eg Can India use G-20 to its advantage?

Role of civil society - not just to influence govt, but to act on its own- eg Why are we unconcerned about Balochistan?

Lastly, Why isn’t there a Channel !ndia?

Think about it Thank you