Impact of Conflict on Public Investment in Children
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Impact of conflict on
Public investment in
children
Presentation made by Bob Libert Muchabaiwa, IiC Manager,
Save the Children-CRGI: BLM@redbarnet.dk
Child Protection Knowledge and Learning Event ( 7-9 December 2015, Dakar)
Outline of the Presentation
Conceptualizing Investment in Children: An
overview
Child protection risks during conflicts
Modelling impacts of conflict on investment
in children
Evidence of impacts of conflicts on IiC
Programming IiC work in conflict contexts
What is Public Investment in
Children?
Direct and indirect public spending
of available domestic and
international resources to sectors and
programmes that significantly
contribute to the implementation of
children’s rights outlined in the UN
CRC.
Conceptualizing Investment in
Children: An overview IiC = F(AR + RA + RU + PFM)
Where
IiC = Investment in Children
F = Function of
AR = Available Resources
RA = Resource Allocation
RU = Resource Utilization
PFM = Effective Public Finance Management (Accountability, transparency, public participation, reporting, auditing etc)
4
Examples of risks of conflicts to
children
Violence (Sexual, physical and
emotional); injuries; Deaths
Separation from family, abandonment and
displacement
Hunger and Starvation
Deprived from accessing essential services such as health, education and
social assistance
Risks of conflict to children
Costs of Conflict (to the child, society
and governments)
Direct costs
Indirect costs
Societal and Long term costs
Opportunity Costs
Externality / spillover costs
Illustrative example of costs of
conflict on children
Child is involved in war, leg
fractured and also gets HIV after being
raped.
Cost of treatment,
rehabilitation
Delayed education
Cost of managing
disability and terminal illness
Social exclusion
Reduced life time earnings
and high levels of poverty
Risks of
conflict Direct Costs Indirect Costs
Long term
Costs
Public Investment in Children During
Conflicts : Where should money go?
Humanitarian Services
• WASH
• Child Protection
• Education in Emergences
• Food and Non-Food items
• ………
Ongoing Development Programmes
• Health
• Education
• Social protection
• Infrastructure Development
• ………….
Post-Conflict investments
• Disaster risk reduction
• Education
• Peace building
• Infrastructure development
E.G
Investments guided by systems theory and CR Principles
Modelling impacts of conflict on
investment in children
Imp
ac
ts o
f C
on
flic
t o
n IiC
Depressed Government Revenue
Regression/ Changes in allocations and expenditure patterns
PFM systems and processes compromised
Denial
of
Child
Rights
Depressed Government Revenue: Less
resources to Investment in Children
Capital flight, reduced DFI and constrained household income
Reduced domestic revenue, especially from Tax
Debt accumulation: Repayment problems+ new debt
ODA diverted to emergencies
Depressed government revenue: Case
of South Sudan
Conflict that broke out in South Sudan in 2013 resulted in a 15%
decline in GDP between December 2013 and 2014. This is partly
because of a decrease in oil production .
Domestic debt soared from nearly 0% in 2011 to approximately
12% of GDP end of 2014 (IMF 2014).
Between 2005 and 2011, foreign aid and technical assistance
amounted to about US$500 million per year, now an estimated 1.8
Billion humanitarian financing is required.
Refugee Response Plan alone, for 2015, by Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan
and Kenya was estimated at US$ 809,913,788
Regression/ Changes in allocations
and expenditure patterns
Allocations
• Cuts in child focused budgets
• Security prioritized
• ………..
Equity of spending
• Budgets become inequitable
• Increase in number and scope of financial barriers
• ………….
Expenditure patterns
• Budget implementation affected
• Corruption rises
• ………..
Regressed child focused expenditures:
Case of South Sudan
Planned social and development expenditures for financial
year 2014/ 2015 decreased by 35% from financial year
2013/2014
At least US$15 billion will be required in the next 10 years to
address infrastructural challenges (IMF 2014).
In 2014, security expenditure accounted for nearly 36% of
entire government budget.
Committed humanitarian financing is equivalent to budget for
Ministry of Gender, Child and Social Welfare for 66 years, if the
budget for 2012/13 is maintained.
Virtually no budget for development expenditures
Regressed child focused expenditures:
Case of South Sudan
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015
SSP M
illio
ns
Period in Year
Directorate of Child
Welfare
Regressed expenditures as security crowds out
social sector expenditures in South Sudan
0
10
20
30
40
2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015
% allocation to security
PFM systems and processes
compromised
Procurement procedures ignored
Wastages
Budget timelines flouted
Poor accountability
Lack of transparency
No financial audits
Co
rru
ptio
n
Pu
blic
pa
rticip
atio
n
PFM systems weakened: Case of South
Sudan
Supplementary budget passed in February 2014
In early 2014, a “Crisis management committee” took
over spending decisions.
Budget sector working groups not meeting as per
plan, Public Participation near impossible.
Fiscal transparency and accountability
compromised.
Other Impacts of conflict on IiC
Difficult for citizens to track budgets and to hold
governments to account.
Minimal integration of non-government financial
flows into state budgeting
Poor local-level / subnational level financing
from government - increased centralization
Fiscal Accountability and transparency
mechanisms weakened
Before the conflict
What to invest in?
Early warning systems and conflict prevention
Disaster risk reduction
Resilience building
Other public policy and financial management issues
Reserve funds
Policy on use of Special Drawing Rights
Policy on borrowing, including ceilings, powers of the finance minister and president
etc.
Policy on counter-cyclical spending.
Expand domestic revenue base
During the conflict
What to invest in more?
Child protection.
Relief and humanitarian services
Safe guarding key public spending in health, education, social assistance etc
Key policy considerations and strategic actions by CSOs
Counter-cyclical spending
Donor coordination in line with principles of good donorship
Monitor potential abuse of available resources
Tracking of child focused donor funding.
Humanitarian financing advocacy
After the conflict
What to invest in?
Costing of child focused reconstruction and recovery programmes
Child protection
Human capital development
Child rights impact assessment of conflict and humanitarian situation.
Disaster risk reduction
Key policy and other strategic considerations
Post conflict recovery programmes
Influencing donor and IFI start up packages, recovery and stabilization plans.
Costing losses and any reversals in the situation of children.
Audit of debts procured and implications on financing of children’s rights
Strengthen domestic revenue mobilization
Demilitarization and demining
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