Impact of Climate Change on The Nile Delta Region Adaptation Planning: An Early Warning Analysis Prof. Mohamed El Raey University of Alexandria Alexandria,

Impact of Climate Change on Impact of Climate Change on The Nile Delta RegionThe Nile Delta Region

Adaptation Planning:Adaptation Planning:An Early Warning AnalysisAn Early Warning Analysis

Prof. Mohamed El RaeyProf. Mohamed El RaeyUniversity of AlexandriaUniversity of Alexandria

Alexandria, EgyptAlexandria, Egypt

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OutlineOutline

• Recent evidences of climatic changes have prompt worldwide action for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. However, it was well recognized that mitigation measures are not enough and that proactive adaptation is necessary for all sectors of development.

1. Vulnerabilities of various sectors of development in the Nile delta region to potential impacts with special reference to coastal zone are discussed

2. The analogy of with disaster accidents and the need for proper utilization of the early warning is necessary

3. An early warning monitoring system for proper assessment and decision support in the face of widespread evidence of climate impacts is necessary for proper identification of hot spots and disaster reduction planning.

• Policies for long term adaptations and capacity building needs in Egypt are investigated

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Average Global Temperature Variations Average Global Temperature Variations

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Contribution and Impacts of Egypt Contribution and Impacts of Egypt 1. Egypt contributes about 0.6% of world greenhouse gases and has signed Kyoto

Protocol and has adopted cleaner technology mechanisms (CDM) for development

2. Impacts on water resources due to changes of precipitation rates, transfer through River Nile and increasing consumption rates

3. Impacts on agriculture production due to changes of agricultural zones and impacts of increasing heat waves

4. Impacts on coastal zone due to sea level rise, salt water intrusion and higher order impacts on water, agriculture and all other sectors

5. Impacts on economics and health due to increase of dust storms intensities and frequencies

6. Impacts on all other sectors of development which lead to increasing unemployment rates, increasing poverty and migration of unemployed population

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Stern ReportStern Report

• The scientific evidence is now overwhelming: climate change presents very serious global risks, and it demands an urgent global response.

• Climate change presents a unique challenge for economics: it is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen.

• From all of these perspectives, the evidence gathered by the Review leads to a simple conclusion: the benefits of strong, early action considerably outweigh the costs.

• The impacts of climate change are not evenly distributed - the poorest countries and people will suffer earliest and most. And if and when the damages appear it will be too late to reverse the process. Thus we are forced to look a long way ahead.

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Early Warning SystemsEarly Warning Systems

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Impacts on Suez CanalImpacts on Suez Canal

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Problems of the Coastal Zone of Problems of the Coastal Zone of EgyptEgypt

1. Highly populated economic centers2. Increasing human activities and Pollution3. Shortage of institutional capabilities in general and

integrated monitoring and management capabilities in particular

4. Land subsidence, erosion and accretion5. Loss of resources, habitats and biodiversity6. Salt water intrusion, waterlogging and waterbogging7. Shortage of fresh water resources8. Uncontrolled urban development and lack of

awareness9. Impact of climate change and risk of sea level rise

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Nile Delta Land subsidence Nile Delta Land subsidence (Stanley et al,1993)(Stanley et al,1993)

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Nile Delta Measured Subsidence (Frihy,2003)Nile Delta Measured Subsidence (Frihy,2003)

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Low Land Areas South East of AlexandriaLow Land Areas South East of Alexandria

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Damage at the coastDamage at the coast

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Dust storms Dust storms and heat and heat

waves will waves will increase in increase in

intensity and intensity and frequency frequency

causing a lot of causing a lot of damage to damage to

economic and economic and health in the health in the

regionregion

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Time Series of Aerosols Changes over Nile Delta RegionTime Series of Aerosols Changes over Nile Delta Region

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Gradual Landfilling of Lake MaryutGradual Landfilling of Lake Maryut

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Specific Impacts of Sea Level RiseSpecific Impacts of Sea Level Riseon the Coastal Zone of Egypton the Coastal Zone of Egypt

1. Impact due to direct flooding sea level rise

2. Impact due to salt water intrusion

3. Impacts due to increasing soil salinity and potential degradation of productivity

4. Impacts on the coastal ecosystem and resources

5. Direct and indirect impacts on socioeconomic sectors leading to migration of population

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Classified satellite image of AlexandriaClassified satellite image of Alexandria

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Potential socioeconomic impact due to SLR at Potential socioeconomic impact due to SLR at AlexandriaAlexandria

(El Raey et al,1995 and El Raey,1997)(El Raey et al,1995 and El Raey,1997)

Year Sector2010

SLR =

18 CM

2025

SLR=

30 CM

2050

SLR=

50 CM

Area loss (km2)1.141.903.17

Population displaced

x 1000

2525451.512

Loss of employmenta- Agriculture

b-Tourism

c- Industry

1.370

5.737

24.400

3.205

12.323

54.936

8.812

33.919

151.200

Total loss of

Employment

32.50770.465195.443

2020

Socioeconomic ImpactsSocioeconomic Impactson Alexandria Cityon Alexandria City

1. Quantitative estimation of approximate loss due to inundation for three scenarios of SLR has been estimated in case of no action.

2. The most vulnerable sectors are the population, services and industry. Losses may reach above 60 % of these sectors for a SLR of 50 cm.

3. The order of socioeconomic losses for each sector may be different, however, again the potential losses are very high and may reach loss of 195,000 jobs in Alexandria only by the middle of this century. Over a million of low income people have to move away from these low land areas.

4. Losses in other vulnerable economic centers should also be estimated. Cultural and world heritage losses are unaccounted for.

5. Indirect economic and health losses due to salt water intrusion, soil salinization and loss of land productivity are still to be assessed.

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Vulnerability of MatruhVulnerability of Matruh

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Vulnerability of Marina City 1.0m SLRVulnerability of Marina City 1.0m SLR

Beaches of Marina CityBeaches of Marina City

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Other Vulnerable AspectsOther Vulnerable Aspects

• Coastal front• Sinai, Lake Bardwil, Damitetta low areas• Impact on Lake Nasser and River Nile flow• Harbors, navigational and land losses• Groundwater and salt water intrusion• Coral reef and sea grass on the Red Sea

• Agricultural Resources and biodiversity• Human health and socioeconomic systems• Lake ecosystems and fisheries• Natural and archeological heritage sites and

tourism

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Sudden Climatic Hazards and Sudden Climatic Hazards and RisksRisks

• The IPCC states that climate change is “indisputable" and may bring "abrupt and irreversible" impacts.

• Global• Sudden fall of ice masses in the polar region may cause

sudden sea level rise• Increasing rates and frequencies of extreme events of

sand storms, and marine storms

• Local • Flooding of low land area south east of Alexandria

and/or south of Port Said• Flash floods, Tsunamis, marine and heat waves over

highly populated areas

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Comparison of Impacts of Climate Changes Comparison of Impacts of Climate Changes and Earthquakes and Earthquakes

AspectEarthquakesClimate Change

ExtensionRegional/LocalizedGlobal

DurationSuddenGradual for Tens of years

Economic, Human LossesThousands of people, 10$B

Millions100$B

CharacteristicsClearHidden and gradual

ImpactsUrban, human and refugees

All sector and refugees

Early warningMinutes/hoursYears/Decades

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World Bank ComparisonWorld Bank Comparison

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World Bank ComparisonWorld Bank Comparison

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Facing Challenges of Climate Facing Challenges of Climate ChangeChange

1. Mitigationa. Egypt contributes 0.57% of the world greenhouse gases

2. Vulnerability assessmenta. Identifying vulnerable sites and sectorsb. Carrying out vulnerability assessment

3. Proactive Adaptationa. Building regional models, identifying scenarios, options and

criteriab. Selecting most suitable options based on the precautionary

principlec. Develop institutional capabilities for implementing and follow

up

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Preliminary Investigation of Preliminary Investigation of Adaptation OptionsAdaptation Options

Analysis indicate that the open options are:• Short Term Options

1. Hard structures and beach nourishment2. Sand dune fixation3. Change of land use4. Enforcement of Environmental Impact Assessments

• Long Term Strategic Options1. Setting plans of development in high land areas2. Integrated Coastal Zone planning and Management3. Establishment of a greenbelt4. Change of land use (Rice and aquaculture)5. Development of institutional capabilities in monitoring and

assessment;6. Creating job opportunities in resilient areas and Upgrading

awareness

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Required PlansRequired Plans

1. Integrating climate change impacts with national strategic impact assessments

2. Enforcing laws and regulation and upgrading awareness

3. Land use plans of development especially for cities of concern

4. Greenbelts and its role/ ICZM

5. Monitoring indicators and Availability of data

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Policy and Institutional Policy and Institutional RecommendationsRecommendations

1. Establishment of a Regional Center of Crisis Management for the Arab Region with particular orientation towards Climate Change among other conflicts

2. Building up national capacities on adaptation to climate change with particular disaster reduction, early warning systems, law enforcement and follow up

3. Working to accommodate migration from low land vulnerable areas by proper planning and follow up

4. Adopting strategic assessments with a component for climate change and working to create job opportunities in non-conflict areas

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