ICAO Worldwide Symposium on Performance of the Air Navigation System The Challenge Montreal March 26-30, 2007 Introduction IFALPA – International Federation.
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ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
Introduction
IFALPA – International Federation of Air Line Pilots’ Associations
• Founded in 1948 with 13 Member Associations
• Today it represents more than 120,000 pilots in near 100 countries globally.
• The Global Voice of Pilots.
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
Overview
Challenge: The Human FactorChallenge: Flexibility and
Dynamic ReactionChallenge: Buffers and Margins
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
What is: Future ATM?
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
Industry ATM TRANSITION ROADMAP
Near Term Medium Term Long Term
FLEXIBLE AIRSPACE MANAGEMENT
ENHANCE TMA MANAGEMENT
INCREASE HORIZONTAL CAPACITY
COLLABORATIVE SPACING
ENHANCE RUNWAY OPERATIONS
DYNAMIC AIRSPACE MANAGEMENT
DYNAMIC TMA MANAGEMENT
INTEGRATED TMA/AIRPORT MANAGEMENT
ENHANCE AIRPORT MAMANGEMENT
ENHANCE ROUTE FLEXIBILITY
INCREASE VERTICAL CAPACITY
ENROUTE EFFICIENCY
TMAEFFICIENCY
AIRPORT EFFICIENCY/CAPACITY
ENROUTE CAPACITY
2005 20082006 2010 2012 20152014 2025
SWIM 1
FOCUS AREA
IMPROVE INFORMATION EXCHANGEINFORMATION MANAGEMENT
ATM
Op
era
tion
al C
on
cep
t
Baseline 01 Jan 2005
Note: Blocks left of the baseline indicate implementation has already begun.
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
Global Harmonization
Everyone promises it
– The reality is different
An example:
CPDLC procedures & message sets
The only (¿?) truly globalreference: ICAO
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO Future ATM
Doc 9854
Global Air Navigation Plan
for CNS/ATM SystemsDoc 9750
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
Challenge: Human Factor
IFATS – “Innovative Future Air Transport System Concept”
postulates that an “extremely automated” air transport system - without pilots and controllers - would be more efficient and safer at the same time than the current ATM System.
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
Challenge: Human Factor
• Is automation “per se” a more efficient and safer “modus operandi” than a system architecture which uses the capabilities of the human to its best?– In reality, to achieve generally accepted low probability
levels for some RNP approach operations, the only solution is: Mitigation by procedures. Mitigation to an extent that some members of certification authorities feel uneasy about it.
• “Extreme automation” will solve everything, “safer”?This type of presumption cannot be accepted from
scientific organisations “per se” it must be proven!
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
Challenge: Human Factor
The Human Roll– Mitigate shortcomings in Technology with
Operational Procedures?– Special Purpose Codes in ADS-B (NRA)
RCF:RCF: 7600 7600
Unlawful interference:Unlawful interference: 7500 7500
Emergency:Emergency: 7700 7700
SPI/IDENTSPI/IDENT
Generic Emergency FlagGeneric Emergency FlagADS-BADS-B
BAW012370 M78MAVOREMG
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
Challenge: Human Factor
• Our position – your position?Future system development should be based
on identified operational requirements. Consequential system functions should then
be realized by applying the optimum level of automation.
• The pilot community is ready to support the scientific groups in identifying this “optimum level of automation” – but we are not going to accept “extreme automation” without any type of human control as a “white sheet starting point”.
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
ICAO OCD 2.5.4
“There will be dynamic 4-D trajectory control and negotiated conflict-free trajectories.”
Is the qualification “dynamic” reflected in currently foreseen implementations of 4-D trajectory negotiation and control?
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
Challenge: Flexibility
Any “future system” must be able to react timely and adequately to disturbances like late passengers / security of luggage / unforecast WX changes!
Adequate dynamic negotiation and control requires appropriate communications and planning tools!
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
Challenge: Buffers & Margins
An example: Lateral Navigation
The 50ies & 60ies: ATS Route = Air Corridor
The 70ies & 80ies:VOR Route Structures: Adherence to centre line required -ICAO Annex 2 (3.6.2.1.1)
The 90ies and on:GPS input to navigation solution
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
Challenge: Buffers & Margins
Any accidental loss of vertical separation inevitably results in a critical situation, if not a collision, because of the extreme accuracy of GPS based navigation.
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
IFALPA POLICY
IFALPA believes that the availability of accurate airborne navigation systems with the capability to navigate automatically along lateral offset tracks should be used so as to reduce the collision risk in the case of possible loss of vertical separation in suitable ATS environments.
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
IFALPA POLICY
RNAV LATERAL OFFSET TRACKING Aircraft with navigation equipment certified and operated to
P-RNAV standards [at least RNP-1 accuracy] should be allowed and required to navigate offset one nautical mile right of centerline.
Note: This policy is not in opposition to the current ICAO SLOP Guidance. In fact, based on this earlier policy statement IFALPA had supported the development of the ICAO provisions, and calls now for the extension of its applicability to areas other than “oceanic and remote continental”.
On Precision RNAV routes [in RNP-1 en-route airspace], to allow for safe offset tracking, the offset value should be taken into account when establishing such routes.
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
IFALPA POLICY
GNSS EMBEDDED DEFAULT LATERAL OFFSET Furthermore, because of the high accuracy and increased
risk of head-on collision invoked by GNSS, to mitigate this risk IFALPA requires that GNSS referenced airborne navigation systems have an embedded default lateral offset.
This embedded offset, residing in whichever part of the equipment calculates the tracking, should be – large enough to reduce the risk of head-on GNSS-to-GNSS
collisions, and – yet be small enough to be insignificant to the pilots, and the ATC
system, in en-route and terminal procedures.
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
The Tragic Truth
There have been mid-air collisions that probably could have been averted if offset tracking had been applied!
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
62nd IFALPA Conference Statement
IFALPA calls for urgent implementation of Strategic Lateral Offset Procedures;
All States and ICAO Planning and Implementation Regional Groups (PIRGs) to authorize the ICAO SLOP in all appropriate airspaces at the earliest opportunity, and
ICAO to support States and PIRGs in their efforts to implement SLOP, and
ICAO to continue developing advanced offset tracking procedures (such as the embedded lateral offset concept).
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
Strategy
Relax Annex 2 (3.6.2.1.1), the “on centre line” rule, to allow offset tracking as reasonable in the circumstances
Recognize lateral offset tracking and cater for it in airspace design and air traffic management functions of any future ATM system
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
4D Trajectories
Remember ICAO OCD 2.5.4:
“There will be dynamic 4-D trajectory control and negotiated conflict-free trajectories.”
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
4D Trajectories
Can a conflict-free trajectory be calculated over several hours of flight?
“Disturbances” – as mentioned previously in the “flexibility” section - make such an extreme implementation unreasonable from an operational perspective.
For example, it does not make sense to delay the departure of a flight by 30 seconds to resolve a predicted en-route conflict a couple of hours ahead, or to achieve a better arrival sequence.
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
ATS Committee Position (1)
“4D trajectories” based advanced air traffic management is supported under the following two conditions:
1) It must be recognized and accepted that the accuracy of the trajectory prediction will degrade with the extent of look
ahead.
Some people call this “granularity”, some others rather relate the control mechanisms to appropriate “time horizons”.
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
ATS Committee Position(2)
2) The 4D clearance it self should always indicate the necessary compliance value, depending on the traffic situation.
This may be called a type of “breathing” 4D definition or spacing requirement (in legacy terms).
Note: It is recognized that to achieve higher capacity in high demand situations, the user-preferred 4D trajectory will be subject to modifications through CDM.
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
Evolution: “Breathing” Compliance
Adherence to speed in general is subject to a 5% margin (ICAO Annex 2, 3.6.2.2).
To achieve higher capacity, the application of the “Mach number technique” may be required.
Temporary changes of speed, for example, when turbulence is encountered, require amendments to the clearance.
In a future 4D environment, it should be obvious from the “contract” to what extent a deviation from the nominal target value is possible without creating a conflict with other traffic.
It may even be advantageous to base the overall planning on reasonable buffer margins to reduce the communication and coordination workload when short-term deviations are required.
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
IFATS & 4D Trajectories
A kind of “breathing” compliance is part of the IFATS program 4D trajectory management:
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
IFATS & 4D Trajectories
The individual aircraft operates within a “freedom bubble”, allowing reasonable trajectory and speed modifications without negotiating a new contract
This allows maintaining variable, optimum Mach numbers, and reaction to unforeseen events to some degree.
Separation from other traffic is effected by conflict-free outer “safety bubbles”
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
Conclusion
Global Harmonisation - needs to be achieved on System Planning level as well as during local / Regional implementations
Automation not being a value “per se” “Flexibility” and ability for “Dynamic
Reaction” as properties of ATM Recognition of the benefits of appropriate
“buffers and margins” for both:– Safety, and– Stability of Operation
ICAO Worldwide Symposium onPerformance of the Air Navigation System
The ChallengeMontreal March 26-30, 2007
Captain Miguel Marín
IFALPA ATS Committee Chairmanmiguel@emarin.org
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