Human Security in C21st
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Human Security in C21st
Theo Farrell, CSI Lecture 7, 2011
Course re-cap
Security studies after the Cold War
Humanitarian intervention: why, when and how
Global terrorism: the bad guys
America unipolarity and rising China
Nuclear proliferation: Iran and Indo-Pak
The Iraq Wars: American RMA
COIN and Afghanistan: tough going
Whose security?
Referent object?
Rise of the state
Buzan (neorealist): states
Booth (critical theorist): people
Booth: states and security
Too unreliable
Illogical
Too diverse
Biggest killers: the 2 Ps
Extreme poverty
Preventable disease
Key stats
World pop = 8 billion by 2025
3 billion live on $2 per day or less
850 m under-nourished
14 m die from hunger each year
HIV/AIDS: 40 m – approx 3 m deaths
Malaria: 225 m per year – 800,000 deaths
Human security is a child who did not die, a disease that did not spread, a job that was not cut, an ethnic tension that did not explode in violence, a dissident who was not silenced. Human security is not a concern with weapons – it is a concern with human life and dignity.
UNDP Human Development Report 1994
For most people today, a feeling of insecurity arises more from worries about daily life than from the dread of a cataclysmic world event.
UNDP Human Development Report 2007
Characteristics of Human Security
1. Universal concern
2. Interdependent issues
3. Early action
4. People-centric
UNDP Human Development Report 1994
Major threats to Human Security
1. Population growth
2. Economic disparities
3. Migration pressures
4. Environmental degradation
5. Drug trafficking
6. International terrorism
UNDP Human Development Report 1994
Human security means protecting fundamental freedoms — freedoms that are the essence of life...It means protecting people from critical (severe) and pervasive (widespread) threats and situations…It means creating political, social, environmental, economic, military and cultural systems that together give people the building blocks of survival, livelihood and dignity.
Commission on Human Security, 2003
Millennium Development Goals, 2000
1. Extreme poverty: halve
2. Primary education: universal
3. Gender equality: in education
4. Child Mortality: reduce by 2/3
5. Maternal morbidity: reduce by ¾
6. HIV/AIDS, Malaria: reverse spread
7. Environmental sustainability: improve slums for 100 m
8. Global partnership for development: focus on poorest states
The conflict trap
Average interstate war = 6 months
Average civil war = 6 years
Experience of civil war doubles risk of another conflict
Civil war reduces economic growth by 2.3% per year
Civil war = mass population movements and collapse of public health systems
Conflict-poverty trap
War and poverty
1. Low-income and civil war: halve income = double risk of war
2. Slow growth: weak economy = weak state
3. Dependency on primary commodity exports: diamonds, oil, etc
“A flagrant grievance is to a rebel movement what an image is to a business.”
Paul Collier, The Bottom Billion (2007)
Collier’s 4 instruments
1.Aid
2.Military intervention
3.Laws
4.Trade
“Useful idiots”
Problems with trade barriers
Discourage competition and retard growth
Key source of corruption
Foreign currency: more aid = less exports
Bottom-billion need to diversity exports into labor-using manufacturing and services
Need temporary protection from Asia
Human security is normatively attractive, but analytically weak.
Dr. Edward Newman
Conceptual overstretch
The broad vision of human security is ultimately nothing more than a shopping list; it involves slapping the label of human security on a wide range of issues that have no necessary link, and at a certain point, human security becomes a loose synonym for ‘bad things that can happen’.
Prof. Keith Krause
GS Afghanistan case 2009
‘Serious and individual threat’ to a person arising from a situation of armed conflict.
EC Qualification Directive, Article 15 (c)
Tests for asylum from conflict
1.Conflict severity
2.Individual risk to applicant
Tests for conflict severity
1. Battle deaths: 1,000 mark
2. Civilian casualties: data reliability and indirect?
3. Population displacement
4. State failure: essential services
Conflict severity
DRC, 2000
Chad, 2000
Somalia, 2007
Sudan, 2007
Afghan, 2008
Total killed
36,250 100 547 2,718 3,378
Displaced
317 k 54 k 85-115 k 500-625 k
3.1 m
Child mortality
17.9% 20.5% 14.2% 10.9% 20%
Child under-weight
31.1% 28.1% 35.6% 31% 45%
AIT ruling in GS case, 2009
“The food supply problem cannot be shown to be connected otherwise than very remotely to indiscriminate violence.”
Mass displacement and state failure “may provide reinforcing evidence when looking at the severity of an armed conflict [but] they are not necessarily independent tests of conflict severity.”
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