Human Longevity and a New Vision of Aging Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D. Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D. Center on Aging NORC and The University of Chicago Chicago,
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Human Longevity and
a New Vision of Aging
Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D.Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D.
Center on Aging
NORC and The University of Chicago Chicago, USA
Myth:Aging problem is just a problem of old
age
Facts: Aging problem is a problem of EVERYONE older than 10 years Aging starts very early! Death rates begin to increase with age after the 10th birthday
Aging starts early – at age 10
0.00001
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
0 20 40 60 80 100
Age
log
(m
ort
ality
ra
te)
Men
Women
Source: Swedish official life table, 2005
Myth:There are stages in human life, and old age is just one of them
Fact: Death rates are doubling every eight years of age, with negligible effect of menopause or retirement on this process
Smooth Increase of Risk of Death with Age
U.S. population, 1999
Myth:Human beings are so complex that their aging is very special
Fact: We are not much different from worms and flies: There are general laws of aging and mortality, common for humans and many animals
Mortality of Humans and Fruit Flies
Myth:Those people who live longer are aging more slowly.
Fact: Actuarial aging rate is higher in low mortality populations with higher life expectancy. This is known as “compensation law of mortality.”
Compensation Law of Mortality
Convergence of Mortality Rates with Age
1 – India, 1941-1950, males 2 – Turkey, 1950-1951, males3 – Kenya, 1969, males 4 - Northern Ireland, 1950-
1952, males5 - England and Wales, 1930-
1932, females 6 - Austria, 1959-1961, females
7 - Norway, 1956-1960, females
Source: Gavrilov, Gavrilova,“The Biology of Life Span” 1991
Compensation Law of Mortality (Parental Longevity Effects)
Mortality Kinetics for Progeny Born to Long-Lived (80+) vs Short-Lived Parents
Sons DaughtersAge
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Lo
g(H
azar
d R
ate)
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
short-lived parentslong-lived parents
Linear Regression Line
Age
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Lo
g(H
azar
d R
ate)
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
short-lived parentslong-lived parents
Linear Regression Line
Common Myth:Biomedical war on aging will lead to catastrophic overpopulation.
Fact:Population changes are surprisingly small and slow in their response to a dramatic life extension.
Gavrilov, L., Gavrilova, N. Reliability theory of aging and longevity. In: Handbook of the Biology of Aging. Academic Press, 6th edition (published recently).
High Initial Damage Load (HIDL) Idea
"Adult organisms already have an exceptionally high load of initial damage, which is comparable with the amount of subsequent aging-related deterioration, accumulated during the rest of the entire adult life."
Source: Gavrilov, L.A. & Gavrilova, N.S. 1991. The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach. Harwood Academic Publisher, New York.
Practical implications from the HIDL hypothesis:
"Even a small progress in optimizing the early-developmental processes can potentially result in a remarkable prevention of many diseases in later life, postponement of aging-related morbidity and mortality, and significant extension of healthy lifespan."
Source: Gavrilov, L.A. & Gavrilova, N.S. 1991. The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach. Harwood Academic Publisher, New York.
New Vision of Aging-Related Diseases
Month of Birth
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
life
exp
ecta
ncy
at
age
80, y
ears
7.6
7.7
7.8
7.9
1885 Birth Cohort1891 Birth Cohort
Life Expectancy at Age 80 and Month of BirthData source: Social Security Death Master File
Published in:
Gavrilova, N.S., Gavrilov, L.A. Search for Predictors of Exceptional Human Longevity. In: “Living to 100 and Beyond” Monograph. The Society of Actuaries, Schaumburg, Illinois, USA, 2005, pp. 1-49.
Predictors of Exceptional Longevity
Approach
To study “success stories” in long-term avoidance of fatal diseases (survival to 100 years) and factors correlated with this remarkable survival success
Jeanne Calment (1875-1997)
Study 1
How centenarians are different from their shorter-
lived sibling?
People Born in November Have Twice Higher Chances to Live to
100Within-family study of 5,698 centenarians and their siblings survived to age 50
People Born to Young Mothers Have Twice Higher Chances to Live to 100Within-family study of 2,153 centenarians and their siblings survived to age 50. Family size
<9 children.
p=0.003
p=0.007
p=0.032
Being born to Young Mother Helps Laboratory Mice to Live
Longer Source:
Tarin et al., Delayed Motherhood Decreases Life Expectancy of Mouse Offspring.
Biology of Reproduction 2005 72: 1336-1343.
Possible explanation
These findings are consistent with the 'best eggs are used first' hypothesis suggesting that earlier formed oocytes are of better quality, and go to fertilization cycles earlier in maternal life.
Study 2
How centenarians are different from their shorter-lived peers
when compared at young adult age?
Physical Characteristics at Young Age
and Survival to 100
A study of future centenarians when they were 30 years old using WWI civil draft registration cards
Body Build and Survival to 100
People Who Are Not ‘Stout’ Have 2.6 Times Higher Chances to Live to 100
Results of multivariate study
Variable Odds Ratio
P-value
Medium height vs short and tall height
1.35 0.260
Slender and medium build vs stout build
2.63* 0.025
Farming 2.20* 0.016
Married vs unmarried 0.68 0.268
Native born vs foreign b.
1.13 0.682
Fathers With Many Children Have Higher Chances to Live
to 100Conditional (fixed-effects) logistic regressionN=171. Reference level: no children
VariableOdds ratio
95% CIP-
value
1-3 children 1.620.89-2.95
0.127
4+ children 2.710.99-7.39
0.051
AcknowledgmentsThis study was made possible thanks to:
generous support from the National Institute on Aging and
the Society of Actuaries
For More Information and Updates Please Visit Our Scientific and Educational
Website on Human Longevity:
http://longevity-science.org
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http://longevity-science.blogspot.com/
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