Hagen Koch 1 , Stefan Kaden 2 , Michael Kaltofen 2
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GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam Hagen Koch et al., BTU Cottbus
Hagen Koch1, Stefan Kaden2, Michael Kaltofen2
1Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus, Chair of Hydrology and Water Resources Management
2 WASY GmbH, Institute for Water Resources Planning and System Research
WBalMo Elbe / module Czechia -
application fields and first results
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam Hagen Koch et al., BTU Cottbus
1. Contents
1. Relevance for the Overall Model
1. Input Data and Information
1. Development of Modules
1. First Results
1. Conclusion and Outlook
1. Contents
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam Hagen Koch et al., BTU Cottbus
- Inflow to Germany at different locations:
- GLOWA-ELBE II sub-project Surface Water Availability: investigation of changes in the water availability in the whole Elbe River Basin under global change scenarios
2. Relevance for the Overall Model
- Czech Republic covers one third of the Elbe
River Basin roughly
• Main stream of river Labe
=> Decin / Labe
• Sub-basin of the river Mulde
=> downstream reservoir Prisecnice / Prisecniceice
=> downstream reservoir Flaje / Flajsk potok
- Effects of climate change and reservoir
management in the Czech Republic will
in all probability have an influence on
inflow to Germany
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam Hagen Koch et al., BTU Cottbus
Basis for Data and Information
“Agreement of co-operation” between GLOWA-ELBE II and the Czech River Basin Authorities
Data and information delivered:
3. Input Data and Information
• reservoirs to be included in the model (name, location, controllable storage, active storage, water surface area, etc.) => reservoirs with capacity equal or larger than 1 mill. m3
• water users, i.e. withdrawals and discharges (name, location, reference number of permit, monthly or yearly values for the last years, etc.) => quantity equal or larger than 0.01 m3/s
• management of water resources facilities - e.g. water transfers between river reaches or reservoirs (name, location of intake and of orifice, capacity, etc.)
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam Hagen Koch et al., BTU Cottbus
Structure of the Modules
… is according to the river basin districts (Povodis) in the Czech Republic
• Upper Vltava,Upper Vltava,
• Lower Vltava,Lower Vltava,
• Berounka,Berounka,
• Upper and Middle Labe,Upper and Middle Labe,
• Ohre and Lower Labe.Ohre and Lower Labe.
4. Development of Modules
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Ohre / Lower Labe
Berounka
Upper / MiddleLabe
Lower Vltava
UpperVltava
20 0 20 40 Kilometers
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam Hagen Koch et al., BTU Cottbus
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5
River networkRivers WBalMoReservoirs
%U Returnflows#S Withdrawals
Legend:
Development of Modules
…on the example of the module Upper and Middle Labe
• Upper Vltava,
• Lower Vltava,
• Berounka,
• Upper and Middle Labe,Upper and Middle Labe,
• Ohre and Lower Labe.
4. Development of Modules
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riverscalculation profilesreservoirswater users
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam Hagen Koch et al., BTU Cottbus
Results
…for different fields/sectors and locations as example for possible kinds of analysis:
• Effects of climate change on natural streamflows
• Effects of climate change on regulated (managed) streamflows
• Effects of climate change for different water users
• Effects of climate change on filling of reservoirs
5. First Results
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam Hagen Koch et al., BTU Cottbus
Effects of climate change on natural streamflows
5. First Results
#Y
#YJesenice
Ceske Udoli#Y
#YJesenice
Ceske Udoli
03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-525-year-periods (years 2003-2052)
0.0
1.0
2.0
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4.0
5.0
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amfl
ow
[m
³/s]
probability of exceedance 90%probability of exceedance 99%probability of exceedance 90%probability of exceedance 99%
#Y
#YJesenice
Ceske Udoli
03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-525-year-periods (years 2003-2052)
0.0
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amfl
ow
[m
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probability of exceedance 90%probability of exceedance 99%probability of exceedance 90%probability of exceedance 99%
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam Hagen Koch et al., BTU Cottbus
#Y
#Y
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#Y#Y
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#Y
Vrane
Decin Labska
Melnik
VrananyNemciceNymburk
Korensko
Pardubice
Vyssi Brod
Litomerice
Les Kralovstvi
Usti nad Labem
Ceske Budejovice
Brandys nad Labem
Effects of climate change on regulated (managed) streamflows
5. First Results
Vy
ss
i Bro
d
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sk
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amfl
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[m
3 /s]
MQ, 1st period (2003-2007)
MQ, 10th period (2048-2052)
NMQ, 1st period (2003-2007)
NMQ, 10th period (2048-2052)
#Y
#Y
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Vrane
Decin Labska
Melnik
VrananyNemciceNymburk
Korensko
Pardubice
Vyssi Brod
Litomerice
Les Kralovstvi
Usti nad Labem
Ceske Budejovice
Brandys nad Labem
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ea
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3/s
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cin
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam Hagen Koch et al., BTU Cottbus
Safety of drinking water provision for the city of Prague
Drinking water for the city of Prague is provided by three sources:• Withdrawal directly from the river Vltava in Prague,• Transfer from the area between the cities of Sojovice and Karany (bank filtration),• Transfer from reservoir Svihov (Zelivka).
reservoirSvihov
bank filtration
Prague
reservoirSvihov
bank filtration
Prague
reservoirSvihov
bank filtration
Prague
03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-525-year-periods (years 2003-2052)
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Saf
ety
of
ach
ieve
men
t [%
]
PVK Praha UV Podolidemand= 0,6 m 3/s
03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-525-year-periods (years 2003-2052)
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ety
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ieve
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t [%
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PVK Praha UV Zelivkademand= 5,25 m 3/s
03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-525-year-periods (years 2003-2052)
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ety
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ieve
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t [%
]
Prazske vodarny, vodarna Karany/Sojovice
dem and= 1,83 m 3/s
5. First Results
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam Hagen Koch et al., BTU Cottbus
Reservoir Svihov (Zelivka)
Comparison of real values for withdrawal (years 1991 -2004) with simulated values for all ten periods (years 2003 - 2052).
5. First Results
simulated, 5-year-periods (2003-2052)
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wit
hd
raw
al [
m3/s
]
real values (years 1991-2004)
withdrawal, simulatedmean value for periodminimum value for period
withdrawal, realm ean value for year
simulated, 5-year-periods (2003-2052)
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raw
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withdrawal, simulatedmean value for periodminimum value for period
withdrawal, realm ean value for year
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam Hagen Koch et al., BTU Cottbus
Inflow to Germany downstream reservoir Prisecnice (at Schmalzgrube / Preßnitz) –
modules for the rivers Ohre and Mulde
5. First Results
#Y
#Y
#Y
03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-525-year-periods (years 2003-2052)
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amfl
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Probability of exceedance 99%inflow to reservoir (sum)drinking water supply (UV Hradiste)streamflow below reservoirstreamflow Schmalzgrube / Preßnitz
Probability of exceedance 99%inflow to reservoir (sum)drinking water supply (UV Hradiste)streamflow below reservoirstreamflow Schmalzgrube / Preßnitz
Probability of exceedance 99%inflow to reservoir (sum)drinking water supply (UV Hradiste)streamflow below reservoirstreamflow Schmalzgrube / Preßnitz
Probability of exceedance 99%inflow to reservoir (sum)drinking water supply (UV Hradiste)streamflow below reservoirstreamflow Schmalzgrube / Preßnitz
Probability of exceedance 99%inflow to reservoir (sum)drinking water supply (UV Hradiste)streamflow below reservoirstreamflow Schmalzgrube / Preßnitz
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam Hagen Koch et al., BTU Cottbus
Filling of Reservoirs
5. First Results
$T
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Ohre / Lower Labe
Berounka
Upper / MiddleLabe
Lower Vltava
UpperVltava
20 0 20 40 KilometersLipno ILipno I
OrlikOrlik
HracholuskyHracholusky
RozkosRozkos
NechraniceNechranice
03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-525-year-periods (years 2003-2052)
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Fill
ing
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rese
rvo
ir [
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m³]
Active capacityreservoir Lipno Ireservoir Orlikreservoir Hracholuskyreservoir Rozkosreservoir Nechranice
Probability of exceedance 99%reservoir Lipno Ireservoir Orlikreservoir Hracholuskyreservoir Rozkosreservoir Nechranice
Probability of exceedance 99%reservoir Lipno Ireservoir Orlikreservoir Hracholuskyreservoir Rozkosreservoir Nechranice
Probability of exceedance 99%reservoir Lipno Ireservoir Orlikreservoir Hracholuskyreservoir Rozkosreservoir Nechranice
Probability of exceedance 99%reservoir Lipno Ireservoir Orlikreservoir Hracholuskyreservoir Rozkosreservoir Nechranice
Probability of exceedance 99%reservoir Lipno Ireservoir Orlikreservoir Hracholuskyreservoir Rozkosreservoir Nechranice
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam Hagen Koch et al., BTU Cottbus
Conclusions:• Climate change will affect water availability in the Czech part of the Elbe River Basin• Affects will be different at different locations and within seasons (e.g. rising streamflows
during winter and falling streamflows during summer and autumn)• Streamflows during low flow episodes will fall generally• Drinking water provision from reservoirs is sector most affected, for other water users water
can be provided with high safety• Under extreme dry conditions the water level in some reservoirs will fall significantly while
other reservoirs are unaffected• Adapted/changed management of reservoirs might compensate for some of the effects of
climate change
Outlook:• Analysis of results in consultation of Povodis (e.g. for 4th Status Report)• Inclusion of changing water demand for large water users (e.g. power stations) and
calculation of effects
6. Conclusion and Outlook
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam Hagen Koch et al., BTU Cottbus
Thank You
for your attention!
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam Hagen Koch et al., BTU Cottbus
Reservoir Prisecnice: DWS, comparison of real values with simulated values
03-0
7
08-1
2
13-1
7
18-2
2
23-2
7
28-3
2
33-3
7
38-4
2
43-4
7
48-5
2
simulated, 5-year-periods (2003-2052)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
wit
hd
raw
al [
m3/s
]
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
real values (years 1991-2004)
withdrawal, simulatedmean value for month
withdrawal, realm ean value for month
GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam Hagen Koch et al., BTU Cottbus
Filling of reservoirs
03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-525-year-periods (years 2003-2052)
0
50
100
150
200
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300
350
400
Fill
ing
of
rese
rvo
ir [
Mio
m³]
A ctive capacityreservoir Lipno Ireservoir Orlikreservoir Hracholuskyreservoir Rozkosreservoir Nechranice
Probability of exceedance 95%reservoir Lipno Ireservoir Orlikreservoir Hracholuskyreservoir Rozkosreservoir Nechranice
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