Growth Scenarios for South Africa in 2014
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Growth Scenarios for South Africa in 2014
CAUTION: Bumpy Road Ahead
Shattered Expectations
3
2013 Has Defied Many Expectations
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
GDP Growth (Oct 2012 Prediction) GDP Growth (April 2013 Prediction) GDP Growth (October 2013 Prediction)
GD
P G
row
th (
%)
2012 2013 2014 2015
South Africa’s GDP Forecast as Downgraded By the IMF in the Past Year
Source: IMF and Frost & Sullivan
4
2013 Has Defied Many Expectations (Continued)
1.31.5
2.3
1.51.7
2.0
2012 2013 2014
Developed Economies (2012 Prediction)
Developed Economies (2013 Prediction)
5.35.6 5.9
4.94.5
5.1
2012 2013 2014
Emerging Economies (2012 Prediction)
Emerging Economies (2013 Prediction) Source: IMF and Frost & Sullivan
Developed Economy Growth Revised Upward
for 2013
Emerging Economy Growth Revised Downward
for 2013
Slow recovery in Europe has
weakened growth prospects for 2014
Stronger growth in the United States
now expected in 2014
Developed economies are expected to
drive global growth despite growth
downgrade for 2014
Lessons Learned
6
What Did We Learn From 2013?
• Stagnation of economic growth in
Europe
• Depreciation of the rand
• Market reaction to policy decisions
• Growth momentum slowdown in
BRICS
7
Why Did the Slowdown Persist in Europe?
Source: Economist, OECD and Frost & Sullivan
Public debt remains
high
Fiscal spending
constraints
Investment slump
8
Strong Correlation with Low Growth Expectations and
High Sovereign Debt
Czech Republic
Germany
Greece
Spain
France
Italy
Hungary
Poland
Romania
United Kingdom
Turkey
R² = 0.820
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0
GD
P A
ve
rag
e G
row
th 2
01
2-2
01
5 (
%)
Debt Risk Scale (1 = low risk; 10 = high risk)
European Debt Risk and Growth
The debt risk scale was calculated taking into account the level of sovereign debt, the growth of this debt, openness of the economy and
the level of financial flows the country is responsible for Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
9
Why Did the Slowdown Persist in Europe? (Continued)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
France Germany Greece Italy Portugal Spain
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
(%
)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Unemployment Continues to Grow in Many Countries
Source: OECD and Frost & Sullivan
10
Why Did the Slowdown Persist in Europe? (Continued)
Source: Economist, OECD and Frost & Sullivan
Growth expectations
remain strained
European growth
engine relies on
Germany
High tech industries
and energy
11
Depreciation and Volatility of the Rand
7.00
7.50
8.00
8.50
9.00
9.50
10.00
10.50
11.00
R/$
Ex
ch
an
ge
Rate
13% depreciation
in 25 days
21.25% depreciation from
beginning of 2013 to end of
November 2013
Source: SARB and Frost & Sullivan
12
Causes of Rand Depreciation in 2013 - Capital Outflows
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Net
Pu
rch
as
es
(R
Milli
on
)
Foreign Purchases of Bonds and Stocks, South Africa, 2012 to July 2013
Source: SARB and Frost & Sullivan
13
Causes of Rand Depreciation in 2013 - Lack of Exports
R60.12 bn
R44.03 bn
R(34.62) bn
R(76.1) bn
2010 2011 2012 2013 (Jan to October)
• Lack of Exports
• Trade balance under pressure
South Africa’s Restated Trade Deficit, 2010 to October 2013
Source: SARS and Frost & Sullivan
• Weaker rand should raise demand for exports and lower demand for imports
• Weak global demand not allowing rand to appreciate
14
Emerging Market Currency Devaluation
-11.8%
-10.0%
-12.6%
-3.2%
-8.9%
-15.4%
Brazilian real Chilean peso Indian rupee Mexican peso Russian ruble South African rand
Selected Emerging Economy Currencies, Year to Date 2013
Source: IMF and Frost & Sullivan
15
Slowdown In Many Emerging Markets
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
World European Union
Emerging market and developing economies
Central and eastern Europe
Developing Asia
Latin America and the
Caribbean
Sub-Saharan Africa
United States China
GD
P G
row
th A
ve
rag
e (
%)
2005 to 2007 Average 2013 to 2015 Average
Average GDP Growth for Most Regions Except Sub-Saharan Africa is Significantly Lower After the
Financial Crisis
Source: IMF and Frost & Sullivan
Scenario Analysis - What to look out for in 2014
Continued Recession and Slower-than-
Expected Recovery in Europe
18
General Decline in Exports to Europe
1200.0
1400.0
1600.0
1800.0
2000.0
2200.0
2400.0
2600.0
Ja
n-1
1
Feb
-11
Ma
r-11
Ap
r-11
Ma
y-1
1
Ju
n-1
1
Ju
l-11
Au
g-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Oct-
11
No
v-1
1
De
c-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Feb
-12
Ma
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Au
g-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Oct-
12
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Ap
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Ex
po
rts
($ M
illi
on
)
18.5% DECLINE
3.1% DECLINE
Source: SARS and Frost & Sullivan
19
Export Decline of High Value Added Industries
$1.37 bn
$1.14 bn
$0.94 bn
$1.31 bn$1.29 bn
$1.15 bn
Q1 and Q2 2011 Q1 and Q2 2012 Q1 and Q2 2013
Exports of Machinery Automotive Exports
17.2%
17.6%
1.8%
11.2%
Manufacturing Exports to Europe, South Africa, Q1 and Q2, 2011, 2012 and 2013
Source: Trademap and Frost & Sullivan
20
Major Effects of European Stagnation
Stagnant export growth
Rand to remain under pressure
Increased supply-side inflation
Current account to remain under pressure
21
What is the Likelihood of European Stagnation Scenario
European
Stagnation
Likelihood
Ne
ga
tive
Eff
ec
t
Most likely
Mo
st
neg
ati
ve
GD
P G
row
thG
DP
Gro
wth
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
-1%
-2%
US Fed Tapering Not According to Plan
23
Major Effects of US Monetary Policy Uncertainty
-100.00
-50.00
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
Brazil India Indonesia Malaysia Russia South Africa Turkey
Cu
rren
t A
cco
un
t B
alan
ce (
$ B
illio
n)
2010 2011 2012 2013
High Current Account Deficits will Place Added Pressure on Certain Emerging Economies, 2010-2013
Source: IMF and Frost & Sullivan
24
What is the Likelihood of Uncertainty in US Monetary
Policy
Likelihood
Ne
ga
tive
Eff
ec
t
Most likely
Mo
st
neg
ati
ve
GD
P G
row
thG
DP
Gro
wth
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
-1%
-2%
Uncertainty
and delay
As
Planned
Increased Domestic Issues and Aversion to
Investment
26
Local Disruptions Contribute to Capital Flight
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Pro
tes
t G
row
th R
ate
(%
)
Annual Protest Growth Rate, South Africa, 2008 to 2012
Source: Multi-Level Governmental Initiative and Frost & Sullivan Analysis
27
Major Effects of Domestic Disputes
Capital flight
Currency depreciation
Lower FDI
Negative impact on manufacturing sector
Supply-side bottlenecks
Inflationary pressure
28
What is the Likelihood of Domestic Disturbance
Likelihood
Ne
ga
tive
Eff
ec
t
Most likely
Mo
st
neg
ati
ve
Loss of
control of
violent action
and protest
Spillover of
violent
labour action
Seasonal
strike action
& protest
GD
P G
row
th
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
-1%
-2%
Violent labour
action
(manufacturing
& mining
Scenario Analysis and Possible Outcomes
30
How Bad Could It Be?
Percentage of Respondents Indicating the Economic Conditions in Their Country Are Undesirable
Source: Pew Research Centre
31
Most Likely Outcome for 2014
Likelihood
Ne
ga
tive
Eff
ec
t
Most likely
Mo
st
neg
ati
ve
Loss of
control of
violent action
and protest
Seasonal
strikes, elections, US
tapers to
expectation, EM
slowdown
GD
P G
row
th
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
-1%
-2%
Seasonal
strikes, elections, serious
uncertainty to Fed
decisions, EM slowdown
Violent protest, EU
stagnation
EU recession
Uncontrolled violent
action and uprising
Who is Frost & Sullivan
33
Introduction to Frost & Sullivan
A trusted growth partner with 51 years of experience
• Frost & Sullivan is a global growth consulting company that partners with clients to support them to
grow their businesses
• Founded in 1961
• 10,000+ clients worldwide, including emerging companies, SME, the Global 1000 and the investment
community
• We offer services ranging from industry research, growth consulting, corporate training and
development, and events
• African office based in Cape Town
– Staff compliment of 60 focussed on Africa
Growth Partnership
Services
Growth Consulting GIL University Events
34
Introduction to Frost & Sullivan
A wide industry and technology breadth
uncovering new markets and creative growth ideas
Automotive&
Transportation
Aerospace & Defense Measurement &Instrumentation
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HealthcareInfrastructureEnergy & PowerSystems
Chemicals, Materials& Food
Electronics &Security
Industrial Automation& Process Control
AutomotiveTransportation & Logistics
ConsumerTechnologies
Minerals & Mining
35
Implementation Consulting;
Growth Team Membership;
GIL University
10 Growth Processes;
Growth Partnership Services
Growth Partnership Services;
Growth Workshops;
Growth Excellence Matrix;
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Building insights that define successful growth for industry leaders
Service Offering
Our exclusive growth system focuses on the whole growth cycle
36
Craig ParkerSenior Economic Consultant
Tel: +27 21 680 3292E mail: Craig.Parker@frost.com
Contact details
Mani JamesRegional Director & Operations Manager
Tel: +27 21 680 3208Cell: +27 78 305 3124E mail: Mani.James@frost.com
Contacts
Samantha JamesCorporate Communications
Tel: +27 21 680 3265E mail: Samantha.James@frost.com
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