Grid Reliability Assessment · Grid Reliability Assessment David R. Nevius, Senior Vice President, NERC ... NERC NORTH AMERICAN ELECTRIC RELIABILITY CORPORATION. r 2006 Long-Term

0o -N

Grid Reliability Assessment

David R. Nevius, Senior Vice President, NERC

U.S Nuclear Regulatory Commission Workshop on

New Reactor Licensing & Transmission Planning

May 30, 2007

NErOCNORTH AMERICAN ELECTRICRELIABILITY CORPORATION

2007 Summer "Watch List" Issues-~ t - -

0 Southernimportedlines thatoperation

California - relies on significant amounts ofpower, transported across transmissionare heavily loaded during normal

* Greateradditionmeasure

Connecticut - tight capacity margins;of 200 megawatts of demand-reduction

•s since last summer will help.

NERONORTH AMERICAN ELECTRlIC-RELIABILITY CORPORATION

01

Reliability Improvements Since 2006

* Southeast - more than $1.21 billion invested in transmission in2006.

* Boston - import capability boosted by 1,000 MW due to two new345 kV transmission lines from Stoughton, MA into Boston;operational in October 2006 and May 2007, respectively.

* Southwestern Connecticut - can import345 kV transmission line from Bethel toservice in October 2006.

230 MWNorwalk

more since awas put into

* Texas - reduced its transmission congestion, allowing it toreduce the number of less-efficient generating units that mustrun in tight reliability situations from seven to one.

NERCNORTH AMERICAN ELECTRICRELIABILITY CORPORATION

r2006 Long-Term Assessment

~j Fuel Su'pply &Delfivery,

T~ransmissioniExpansion

NER•NORTH AMERICAN ELECTRICRELIABILITY CORPORATION

ol -- ,%

Demand Increasing Faster:Capa c..ity Ir n rn~ss~on

Than Capacity

20% - 19%

13%

C,

15%

10%

5%

9%

0%

U.S. Canada

F Demand U Capacity

NEPRCNORTH AMERICAN ELECTRICRELIABILITY CORPORATION

Capacity Margins ,Capacity, Transmissioni

WECC Canada2008/2009

MRO2009/2015+

Rocky Mtn.2007/2015+

ReliabilityFirst

2008/2013

FRCCKr

When resources /,..includingdrop below target runcommitted

Iresources

ERCOT

2008/2013 NNERCN0"RTH AMERICAN ELECTRICRELIABILITY CORPORATION

I

Capacity: Action Cn

. Utilities:" Commit to more resources" Pursue demand response programs* Coordinate capacity and transmission

plans

* NERC:* Review weather experience

NEPCNORTH AMERICAN ELECTRIiCRELIABILITY CORPORATION

Demand Increasing Faster TheTransmission Construction

19%20%13%15%

;6.10%3.5%

t)Iy0

0%

U.S. Canada

FI Demand 1 Transmission

NERCNORTH AMERICAN ELECTRICRELIABILITY CORPORATION

Transmission: Action ransmission

* DOE: Designate National Interest ElectricTransmission Corridors

" RTOs and transmission owners:longer-term vision for transmission

" Regulators:* Remove barriers* Encourage investment

" NERC: Develop standards for assestransmission performance

Creategrid

3sing

NER'cNORTH AMERICAN ELECTRIC-RELIABILITY CORPORATION

or -. 1

Fuels

o.Critical to electric supply reliability. Almost 50% is natural gas-fired

• Growing gas dependence in Texas,Florida . Midwest, Northeast, & West

e Gas supply can be interrupted infavor of home heating needs

* Mid-west coal delivery improving

NEI•CNORTH AMERICAN ELECTRICRELIABILITY CORPORATION

Fuels: Action

Fuel :iokforce

* Utilities:n Evaluate fuel supply and delivery

reliabilitym Assess the impact of fuel transportation

interruptions* Strengthen fuel contracts* Improve communications between

electricity and gas pipeline operators

NERCNORTH. AMERICAN ELECTRICRELIABILITY CORPORATION

Workforce

* Retiring "boomers"

" Fewer engineering students

" Fewer universities offering powersystem education

NERCNORTH AMERICAN ELECTRICRELIABILITY CORPORATION

Workforce: Action

7'Workforce

* Utilities:" Retain aging personnel and establish

mentoring programs to transferknowledge

* Encourage students to pursueengineering careers

* Sponsor colleges and universities tooffer power system studies

NER•NORTH AMEPICAN ELECTRICRELIABILITY CORPORATION

2007 Emerging Issue Focus

NERCFNORTH AMERICAN ELECTRICRELIABILITY CORPORATION

jd

Projected Increases in Nuclear Capacity

2015" ERCO-* SERC

- 5,900 MW- 1,475 MW

2016" FRCC" SERC

-1 125 MWI

- 4,014 MW

NERCNORTH AMERICAN ELECTRICRELIABILITY CORPORATION

EPAct 2005 & Transmission Development

" DOE transmission congestion study -

Completed August 2006" DOE designated draft National Interest

Electric Transmission Corridors" Public meetings held in May" Written comments due July 6, 2007

" FERC can exercise backstop siting authority ifstate approvals not forthcoming

NEIPCNORTH AMERICAN ELECTRICRELIABILITY CORPORATION

I

BF

DOE NIETC Congestion Categories

" Critical Congestion Areas" Atlantic coastal area - metropolitan New York through

northern Virginia" Southern California

" Congestion Areas of Concern* New England* Phoenix-Tucson* San Francisco Bay* Seattle-Portland

" Conditional Congestion Areas* Montana-Wyoming* Dakotas-Minnesota* Kansas-Oklahoma* Illinois, Indiana and upper Appalachia* Southeast NiPC

NORTH AMERICAN! ELECTRICRELIABILITY CORPORATION

Draft Mid-Atlantic Area National Corridor

NERCNORTH AMERICAN. ELECTRICRELIA13ILITY CORPORATION

Draft Southwest Area National Corridor

NERO--1-NORTH AMERICAN ELECTRICRELIABILITY CORPORATION

Summary

" Transmission. planning for proposednew nuclear units must begin now

* Planners need complete informationabout characteristics of proposed units

" -Studies need to take into accountcollective transmission needs of allproposed plants

NERCNORTH AMERICAN ELECTRICRELIABILITY CORPORATION