Global warming is over: Geologic, oceanographic, and solar evidence for global cooling in the coming decades Global warming is over: Geologic, oceanographic,

Global Global warming is warming is over: over: Geologic, Geologic, oceanograpoceanographic, and hic, and solar solar evidence for evidence for global global cooling in cooling in the coming the coming decadesdecades

Don J. Don J. EasterbrookEasterbrook

Glacier fluctuations, global climate Glacier fluctuations, global climate change, and ocean temperature change, and ocean temperature

changeschanges

Glacier advances and retreats Glacier advances and retreats provide both long term and short provide both long term and short term records of climate change.term records of climate change.

Glacier fluctuations match global Glacier fluctuations match global climate changes.climate changes.

Ocean temperature changes match Ocean temperature changes match glacier oscillations and global glacier oscillations and global climate changesclimate changes

Glacier fluctuations on Mt. Baker, Glacier fluctuations on Mt. Baker, WAWA

Little Ice Age

global glacier

advance

disproves

Mann ‘hockey

stick’ claim

Little Little Ice Age Ice Age glacial glacial margin, margin,

Mt. Mt. Baker, Baker,

WAWA

Fluctuating glacial margins, Little Ice Fluctuating glacial margins, Little Ice Age (1600 AD to 1979)Age (1600 AD to 1979)

Boulder Glacier, Mt. BakerBoulder Glacier, Mt. Baker1940 to 1956 1956 to 1979

GLACIER FLUCTUATIONS

CLIMATE CHANGES

PDO-AMO MODE CHANGES

WHAT DRIVES PDO-AMO MODES?

PDO COLD MODE (1945-77) PDO WARM MODE (1977-98

PDO PDO switch switch

from cool from cool mode to mode to

warm warm mode in mode in

19771977

Change from global cooling to global Change from global cooling to global warming in 1977 (the Great Climate warming in 1977 (the Great Climate

Shift) with no change in COShift) with no change in CO22

Greenland oxygen isotope record of Greenland oxygen isotope record of warm and cool periods, 1480 to 1950 warm and cool periods, 1480 to 1950

ADAD

Solar eff ects and climate changeSolar eff ects and climate change

Global climate changes correlate well with changes in:

1. Solar irradiance.

2. Numbers of sunspots and sunspot cycle length.

3. Production of 10Be and 14C in the atmosphere from radiation.

NoNo correlation between CO correlation between CO22 and global and global climate.climate.

Excellent correlation between solar Excellent correlation between solar variation variation

and global climateand global climate

Solar cycle length and Solar cycle length and temperaturetemperature

Solar irradiance and global Solar irradiance and global temperaturetemperature

Sun Sun spotsspots

Sunspots, auroras, and Sunspots, auroras, and 1414C production ratesC production rates

Maunder MinimumMaunder Minimum

Virtually no sun spots occurred during the Little Ice Age

Global cooling occurs during times of Global cooling occurs during times of few sunspots and low solar irradiancefew sunspots and low solar irradiance

Where are we headed during the coming century?

IPCC predicts 1IPCC predicts 1°F increase in global temp by 2011 and °F increase in global temp by 2011 and up to 10 °F by 2100, but no warming since 1998 and up to 10 °F by 2100, but no warming since 1998 and

11°F cooling this year was the largest global temp °F cooling this year was the largest global temp change ever recordedchange ever recorded

IPCC predicted IPCC predicted 11°F warming °F warming per decadeper decade

Global climate Global climate has cooled has cooled since 1998since 1998

IPCC Model Predictions vs Actual IPCC Model Predictions vs Actual temptemp

2008 temperatures in the U.S.2008 temperatures in the U.S.

THE CLIMATE IS THE CLIMATE IS COOLINGCOOLING, NOT WARMING, NOT WARMING

What What happened happened to global to global warming?warming?

46” of snow in 46” of snow in two weeks in two weeks in

N.YN.Y..

Setting up Setting up of the PDO of the PDO cold phase cold phase

assures assures global global

cooling for cooling for the next the next

~30 years~30 years..

Past and predicted PDOPast and predicted PDO

Projected global temp to 2100Projected global temp to 2100

Cycle 24 predictionCycle 24 prediction

Cycle 23/24 resembles the Dalton MinimumCycle 23/24 resembles the Dalton Minimum

Sun spot cycle 23 resembles cycle 4 which Sun spot cycle 23 resembles cycle 4 which preceded the Dalton Minimumpreceded the Dalton Minimum

Solar cycle 24 may be colder than the Solar cycle 24 may be colder than the 1880-1915 cold period1880-1915 cold period

Sun spot cycles of the Dalton MinimumSun spot cycles of the Dalton Minimum

What does this global cooling mean?What does this global cooling mean?

Minnesota, April, 2008

Continuation of ongoing 10-yr cooling trend and 500 yr climate pattern.

Follows ocean SST patterns exactly.

IPCC model predictions were badly wrong

Shows that ‘global warming’ is over.

CO2 did not cause ‘global warming.’

Facts: No correlation between C02 and global warming in the past.

1. Half of the warming in the past century occurred before CO2 began to rise sharply.

2. For 30 years after CO2 began to soar, global cooling occurred, rather than warming.

3. Of the 25 past periods of global warming, only the last one (the past 30 years) corresponds to rising CO2

96% of global warming periods in the past 500 years have no correlation with CO2

Computer simulationsComputer simulations

Blistering future is forecast

One study projects that by 2100, temperatures of 117 in LA, Chicago, 115, Kansas City 116, Delhi 120, Baghdad 122, Belem Brazil 121, France 118. (AP)

Computer models have predicted sharply rising global temp, but global cooling since 1998 has invalidated the models used for forecasting global climate change.

Evidence that ‘global warming’ is a Evidence that ‘global warming’ is a continuation of natural climatic cyclescontinuation of natural climatic cycles The geologic record of past climate changes shows The geologic record of past climate changes shows

consistent patterns for the past 1000 years, all well consistent patterns for the past 1000 years, all well before increased atmospheric CObefore increased atmospheric CO22. .

Temperature records in the Greenland ice core for the Temperature records in the Greenland ice core for the past 500 years show a 27-year cycle of alternating warm past 500 years show a 27-year cycle of alternating warm and cool periods.and cool periods.

The warm period for the past 30 years exactly fits the The warm period for the past 30 years exactly fits the pattern of climate changes for the past several pattern of climate changes for the past several centuriescenturies..

During the past century, each period of global warming During the past century, each period of global warming or cooling corresponds exactly to PDO switchesor cooling corresponds exactly to PDO switches

ImplicationsImplications

Global warming isGlobal warming is over—expect 30 years of global over—expect 30 years of global cooling, perhaps severe (2-5°F).cooling, perhaps severe (2-5°F).

Atmospheric COAtmospheric CO22 is is notnot the cause of global warming. the cause of global warming. Reducing emissions is important, but spending Reducing emissions is important, but spending trillions of dollars will not change global climate.trillions of dollars will not change global climate.

Beginning this year, Beginning this year, global cooling will cause crop global cooling will cause crop failures and serious food shortagesfailures and serious food shortages..

Cooling will Cooling will increase energy demandsincrease energy demands, especially in , especially in high latitude regions.high latitude regions.

Drought areas should experience some relief.Drought areas should experience some relief.

The Earth’s population (6 The Earth’s population (6 billion) will increase 50% (3 billion) will increase 50% (3 billion) by 2050. The billion) by 2050. The doubling time for population doubling time for population is 38 yrs.is 38 yrs.

Huge demands will be Huge demands will be placed on natural resources placed on natural resources (e.g., food, energy, oil, (e.g., food, energy, oil, water) will be exacerbated water) will be exacerbated by global cooling.by global cooling.

Dogma is an impediment to the free exercise of thought. It paralyses the intelligence. Conclusions based upon preconceived ideas are valueless. It is only the open mind that really thinks

Patricia Wentworth, 1949, Latter End