Transcript
Global Print Markets to 2016Pira Executive Retreat, Global Print Markets, Nice, France, 6-7 October 2011
Adam Page, Business Manager, Reports and Consultancy, Pira International
Pira International, Cleeve Road, Leatherhead, Surrey, KT22 7RU
membership@pira-international.com+44 (0)1372 802000
Agenda
Global Print Market Megatrends Print Drivers End-use Sector trends Print Process trends Regional trends Outlook
The Global Print Market
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Global Print Market, $ billion, constant (2010) prices & exchange rates
2006
2008
2009
2010
% change, 2009-10 2011 % change, 2010-11
2016 CAGR (%), 2011-16
804 822 777 785 1.0 791 0.8 845 1.3
Source: Pira International
Megatrends
Demographic trends Economic trends Education Print media and advertising Communications Postal trends Environment
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Changes in population profile by region, 2010-50
Geographic region2010 2050
0-14 15-59
60-69
>70 Total, millions
0-14 15-59 60-70 >70 Total, millions
World 26.4 61.3 5.9 6.5 7,001 19.7 55.3 10.0 15.1 9,709
More developed regions 15.8 59.2 9.8 15.2 1,289 15.2 47.1 11.2 26.5 1,434
Less developed regions 28.8 61.7 5.0 4.5 5,712 20.4 56.7 9.8 13.1 8,275
Least developed countries 40.0 54.4 3.2 2.4 836 28.9 59.6 6.1 5.3 1,745
Less developed regions, excluding least developed countries
26.8 63.0 5.3 4.9 4,876 18.2 55.9 10.7 15.2 6,530
Less developed regions, excluding China 31.9 59.9 4.3 3.9 4,321 22.1 58.4 8.9 10.7 6,847
Africa 40.1 54.0 3.4 2.5 1,027 30.3 59.0 5.7 5.0 2,214
Asia 25.6 63.4 5.6 5.4 4,211 16.7 55.6 11.3 16.3 5,374
Europe 14.8 60.2 9.5 15.4 769 14.5 46.2 12.1 27.2 786
Latin America & the Caribbean 27.5 61.3 5.3 5.9 599 16.3 54.8 10.7 18.2 792
Northern America 19.0 59.4 9.0 12.5 358 17.2 50.4 9.9 22.6 483
Oceania 23.4 59.0 7.7 9.9 38 19.2 52.7 9.2 18.8 59
Source: World Population Prospects (United Nations)
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Top 25 mega-cities,1950-2025
Country Urban agglomeration Population (millions)
1950 1975 2000 2025
Japan Tokyo 11.27 26.61
34.45
37.09
India Delhi - 4.43 15.73
28.57
Brazil São Paulo 2.33 9.61 17.10
21.65
India Mumbai (Bombay) 2.86 7.08 16.09
25.81
Mexico Ciudad de México (Mexico City) 2.88 10.69
18.02
20.71
US New York-Newark 12.34
15.88
17.85
20.64
China Shanghai 4.30 5.63 13.22
20.02
India Kolkata (Calcutta) 4.51 7.89 13.06
20.11
Bangladesh Dhaka - - 10.28
20.94
Pakistan Karachi - 3.99 10.02
18.73
Argentina Buenos Aires 5.10 8.74 11.85 13.71
US Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana 4.05 8.93 11.81 13.68
China Beijing - 4.83 9.76 15.02
Brazil Rio de Janeiro 2.95 7.56 10.80
12.65
Philippines Manila - 5.00 9.96 14.92
Japan Osaka-Kobe 4.15 9.84 11.17 11.37
Egypt Al-Qahirah (Cairo) 2.49 6.45 10.17
13.53
Nigeria Lagos - - 7.23 15.81
Russia Moskva (Moscow) 5.36 7.62 10.00
10.66
Turkey Istanbul - - 8.74 12.11
France Paris 6.52 8.56 9.74 10.88
South Korea Seoul - 6.81 9.92 -
China Chongqing - - - 11.07
Indonesia Jakarta - 4.81 8.39 10.85
US Chicago 5.00 7.16 8.33 9.94
Global Print Drivers
Reduction in run length / shorter lead times Cost reduction pressure Metrics Full colour, totally variable printing. Versioning, personalisation and fully variable data Web-to-print systems Technology development Digital print
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End-use Sectors
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Source: Pira International
End-use Sectors – market share
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Source: Pira International
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Brand owners want innovative packaging and better graphics to gain competitive edge and enhance shelf appeal
Flexible packaging
Gravure and flexo dominate Some offset and screen – Digital is small, fast growing Many converters, brand owners and retailers do not
understand the capabilities of digital As digital productivity improves, economic break-even
points are at higher run lengths Digitally printed flexibles:
$1bn by 2015
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Books is a low growth area outside India and a handful of other less well developed markets, and under threat from digital readers
Book industry trends
E-book challenges for publisher. Digitization and copyright Electronic media Marketing innovations Long Tail business model Changes in trade patterns are impacting upon book
production in Europe. Print and book manufacturing technology is developing.
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Opportunity for on-demand printing (and its flexibility and personalisation capability) in in magazine production
Magazine trends
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Magazine advertising’s historic and forecast shares of above-the-line media sales in Europe, 2003-2012 (% share by value)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
% s
har
e b
y va
lue
Source: Pira International Ltd from World Magazine Trends
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Newspapers face soaring newsprint prices, slumping ad sales, loss of much classified advertising and drops in circulation
Newspaper trends
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Newspaper advertising’s historic and forecast shares of above-the-line media sales in Europe, 2003-2012 (% share by value)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
% s
har
e b
y va
lue
Source: Pira International Ltd from World Newspaper Trends
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Average run lengths for many types of promotional print have fallen as
advertisers better target potential customers
Transpromo
Transpromo is growing strongly Targeted messages in transactional documents increase
response rates and improve customer retention Balance of cost reduction and trying to boost revenue
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Print Processes
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Source: Pira International
Print Processes – market share
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Source: Pira International
Sheetfed trends
Still the dominant process but under pressure from digital Increased efficiencies of new technologies helping to
reduce unit prices Large format presses are becoming important for the
leading press suppliers Steady growth in the use of UV inks and varnishes
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Web offset trends
Increasing completion for a diminishing market hitting commercial heatset
Significant developments in newspaper press technology Opportunities in hybrid web-inkjet
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Flexo trends
Continuing improvements in quality High performance direct flexo CTP such as Esko’s HDI
Flexo have helped to push up the bar Benefiting from growth in packaging
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Gravure trends
High volume publication rotogravure and packaging/label printing applications
Better quality on lower grades of paper than offset Complex and costly prepress stages to prepare cylinders
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Electrophotography trends
Transition from analogue to digital Benefits from trends for shorter runs and faster turnaround Capability of totally variable print also helps boost demand
for commercial products. Relatively new sectors, such as photobooks, are becoming
established Book printing is seeing
strong growth, particularly with short run covers being transferred from offset
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Inkjet trends
Increasingly important in a range of formats over the next five to ten years
Many benefits for printers and their customers Inkjet becoming part of an industrial decoration process
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Screen trends
Declining rapidly as wide format inkjet takes over Some growth in Asia
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Geographic Regions
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Source: Pira International
Geographic Regions – market share
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Source: Pira International
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North American printing industry: companies and employment, 2000–08
Source: Pira International Ltd from various sources
Outlook
Rise of digital Megatrends having negative impact in many categories New technologies and new applications Growth in emerging markets
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Thank you for listening.
Adam Page
Business Manager, Reports and Consultancy
Pira International
+44 (0) 1372 802 113
adam.page@pira-international.com
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